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SPC MD 1961

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Mesoscale Discussion 1961
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Areas affected...much of southern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112243Z - 120045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may move north of the Nebraska border over
the next several hours, producing large hail. Additional severe
storms may develop later this evening over South Dakota with
damaging winds as well.

DISCUSSION...Storms are currently developing along a cold front from
southwest SD into western NE, and also along and north of the
east-west oriented stationary front. As the upper trough continues
east, low-level warm advection will cause the stationary front to
become a warm front, with a gradual influx of warm/moist air into
southern SD. Initially, elevated storms capable of hail are expected
over northern NE and far southern SD. Later in the evening, strong
warm air advection at 850 mb will develop, resulting in increasing
boundary layer theta-e. After 03Z, parts of southeast SD may warm
enough to support surface-based storms with a threat of damaging

..Jewell/Goss.. 09/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42980242 43790017 44159846 44299730 44109683 43539644
            42999640 42569713 42309867 42159984 42290143 42440212
            42550234 42740250 42980242 

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