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Tropical Discussion - Sept

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Time for another thread. I will add a new thread for individual systems, but for now, this will cover the two that currently have potential.

Overnight many of the models, including the Euro have surprised everyone in their depiction of ANOTHER hurricane off the southeast coast. Now... the NHC says this.

 

0-48h TC Formation Probability

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Quote

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today.
This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

 

More to come...

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I sure wish we had a big magnet to pull that system into the gulf -- so we could potentially get some rain.  If it tracks like Dorian, those poor folks don't need a drop more.  We sure do!

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Volusia-Brevard
County line to the Flagler-Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.  Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue with some increase in forward speed through the
weekend.  On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or
over the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so
.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

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090003_key_messages_sm.png.02129aab5923be54564262b7ac156b99.png

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 75.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

 

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SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1046Z FRI SEP 13 2019

A Critical Weather Day (CWD) will be declared at
1045Z Fri Sep 13 2019 and extend through 1200Z Mon Sep 16
2019
. The following NWS regions are impacted by this
CWD...Southern. NCEP/NWSTG and the NCF are also
participating in this CWD to ensure a reliable flow of
weather data. All scheduled software/hardware/network
changes for the impacted offices will be postponed until
the CWD has ended. Any emergency changes will be evaluated
and approved by regional management officials.
NWS offices should contact their regional offices for
further questions about this CWD.

Reason for CWD... Tropical Storm Watches over portions of
Florida's east coast.

 

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Note where two of these disturbances are and then read this.

Quote

A Cape Verde hurricane or Cabo Verde hurricane is an Atlantic hurricane that originates at low-latitude in the deep tropics from a tropical wave that has passed over or near the Cape Verde islands after exiting the coast of West Africa. The average hurricane season has about two Cape Verde hurricanes, which are often the largest and most intense storms of the season due to having plenty of warm open ocean over which to develop before encountering land or other factors prompting weakening. A good portion of Cape Verde storms are large, and some, such as Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Irma, have set various records. Most of the longest-lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin are Cape Verde hurricanes. While many move harmlessly out to sea, some move across the Caribbean sea and into the Gulf of Mexico, becoming damaging storms for Caribbean nations, Central America, Mexico, Bermuda, the United States, and occasionally even Canada. Research projects since the 1970s have been launched to understand the formation of these storms.

 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING...
...HUMBERTO HAS BARELY MOVED THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 26.6
North, longitude 76.7 West. Humberto has been nearly stationary
during the past few hours, but the cyclone should resume a slow
motion toward the northwest and north later today. A sharp turn
to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Humberto should gradually move away from the
northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight, and then will move well
offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by
Sunday night well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance plane was 1005
mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside
later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 27.1
North, longitude 77.1 West. After several hours meandering, Humberto
has begun to move toward the northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with gradual turn to the north is expected during the
next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should gradually move
away from the northwestern Bahamas today or tonight, and then move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night well east
of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a
reconnaissance plane was 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected within portions
of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds
should subside later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week.  These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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No reason to bother with Humberto unless you live in Bermuda or you are a fish. 

Moving on...

Quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located nearly 100 miles north of the northwestern
Bahamas.

1. An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. This disturbance is currently disorganized and
only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day
or two.  Conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual
development through the middle of the week and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough.  Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

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If any of the slower positions were to verify, they would only help to strengthen the CAD that we are suppose to see later this week. It's interesting to see such a wide spread in the ensembles AND how slow they are to the NHC forecast.

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HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

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Let's see where 10 goes.

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today.  Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment.  These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.4N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. MAARTEN.

METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND
ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  FURTHER WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  50.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

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