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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, September 19

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Good Thursday morning!

Have you been outside yet? 🙂 Must be nice, I wouldn't know. 🙂 Instead of enjoying nice cool dry air, I'm listening to the choir. 

While it's not super strong wedge, it's strong enough to aid in keeping our temperatures (well... YOUR temperatures) very comfortable today. With dew points in the low 60's and upper 50's, the air probably feels much more "crisp" this morning.

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Quote

Latest regional surface analysis indicates wedge front has made
it just about out of the area with the majority now over portions
of eastern Alabama. Behind this feature, high pressure continues
to wedge in through the Carolinas and the local area. Dewpoints
already significantly lower with mid to upper 50s across most
locations and this has resulted in lower min temps as well.
Despite an abundance of cloud cover, sites like Atlanta which
were around 80 degrees this time last night, are some 8 degrees
lower tonight.

Expect cloud cover to remain over the area for most of today and
gone on the higher side of guidance for cloud cover. Still think
there could be enough sun late though to allow for temps to just
creep into the lower 80s for North GA. But should the clouds hang
on just a little longer though, would not be surprised to see
some upper 70s high more in line with the MAV guidance.

First cool down as we approach the fall season in store for
tonight with lower 50s for the mountains and mid to upper 50s
elsewhere. Should be clearing skies and lower winds which should
enhance radiational cooling conditions. One additional day around
climo in store for Friday with lower 80s for most locales although
mid 80s will be the rule over Central GA.

 

Areas NE of Houston have been hammered by as much as 30" of rain and it's still coming down.

 

Radar Estimated Rainfall

93135912_houstonrainfall-19.thumb.png.47c129e9f0fb7d9c71cda6a9294045ce.png

 

These are the expected temperatures at 7 am tomorrow.ndfd-georgia-t2m_f-8977200.thumb.png.93db4513a2b28efcf6fd0b90a0e9b7fe.png

 

Combine those with dew points at least 10 degrees lower than today,  and you have a recipe for an awesome fall morning. 

ndfd-georgia-dew2m_f-8977200.thumb.png.7aa8d01f8507b3f554fab92b9c93bbe2.png

 

The morning temps tomorrow will be about 10 degrees or so below normal for this time of the year. 

gfs-georgia-t2m_f_anom-8980800.thumb.png.18cc846a2f55f42fd827b06e79e514fb.png

 

So enjoy the fall football weekend! I can't wait to get back to enjoy it myself! 🙂

Have a great Thursday!

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Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 22 2019 - 12Z Thu Sep 26 2019

...Imelda moisture to fuel Mid-MS Valley/Midwest to Northeast
Heavy Rains Sun/Mon...

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Models and ensembles continue to mainly offer a reasonably similar
medium range flow evolution in a pattern with above average
forecast confidence. The WPC medium range product suite was
primarily derived from a composite blend of fairly well clustered
guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian, GEFS/ECMWF ensemble
means and the National Blend of Models into early next week.
Adjusted the blend to a combination of the better clustered
solutions of the ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensembles by next midweek.

...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Deep tropical moisture with the remains of Imelda will fuel a
threat of locally excessive rainfall. Entrainment into
mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface
frontal system will focus moisture/heavy convective storm
potential with cell training/heavy downpours from the Mid-MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/Northeast. This occurs as the amplified
upper trough ejects northeastward over the Plains this weekend,
then eastward over the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast early next
week.

Upstream, upper low/trough energies and precipitation potential
will reload back into an unsettling West Coast Sun/Mon. The risk
then shifts to the Southwest where moisture from Lorena is drawn
into AZ/NM as the low cuts off near CA. The combination of
monsoonal/tropical moisture will lead to a heavy rain threat
through midweek.

Schichtel
 

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