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Sunday, September 22

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Good Sunday morning!

I was sleeping in this morning after staying up to watch the Georgia game last night. Man... THAT was a battle. I figured the Dawgs massive line would finally wear ND down and that's exactly what happened. I was a little worried about Kirby trying to out think himself at the end of the game, but luckily it all worked out.

Here's pretty much all that needs to be said about the weather right now....

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Here we are again. Yet another day of quiet, pleasant weather, with
high pressure dominating the region, no rain, light winds, and
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. A beautiful day, but it
makes for a rather boring discussion.

Tomorrow, marks the first day of Autumn, however, if you'll be
outside you would never guess it! The 500 hPa ridge that has been
persistently centered over the region will begin to flatten out as a
mid-level trough moved through the Midwest and a cold front begins
to just barely move into the far northwestern portions of the
forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. For the first time in a while a
slight chance of rain exists in the short term forecast, although
it's only for the far northwest corner of GA at the far end of the
forecast period, aka, late Monday afternoon
. The warming trend will
also continue ahead of the frontal boundary with highs starting to
return to the low 90s for a large portion of the forecast area,
which is closer to 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year.

 

So the status quo is the weather story. It was a nice preview of fall temperatures while it lasted... and I've loved the 3 nights/mornings of cooler weather here at the house, even though I only got to experience two of them first hand. 😉 

Snap346062640.jpg.c45eccc1f72a858126256f5113762dc6.jpg

 

And to top it all off, summer starts tomorrow. Wait... that should read fall. I get confused with all of the hot air that's around. Makes me light headed like a hot air balloon. 🙂

This map is displaying dew points, and you can see the center part of the country has no shortage of moisture, and you can also see the drier air over the western half of the country as well.

Snap346062642.thumb.jpg.a40ce2c8fe9b32b9b75edd05ba071fb5.jpg

 

So enjoy the day even though it will be warm. Eventually fall will arrive, and maybe in one big swoop. I like it when it starts stepping down, but I'll take one big cold front to flip this stinking pattern to something more pleasant. 

Hope everyone has a great Sunday!

forecast-22.jpg.072e505a23eabc662b130e0ebca5fd54.jpg

 

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Larry Cosgrove

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It is finally sinking in with folks living east of the Rocky Mountains that summer will not end after Monday. While the western states will almost certainly see repeated cases of polar air masses, the prevalence of a subtropical high from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard will provide hazy, hot, and humid weather ad nauseum. The well-worn phrase, "waiting on a cold front" will gather extra meaning as we move well into October and the trough West vs. ridge Central/East alignment will most likely continue in place.

Or will it? There is one possible synoptic set-up that could rearrange the deck, so to speak. That would mean an incursion by a strong tropical cyclone, meeting up with a trough complex progressing out of the Intermountain Region. The analog scenario is very favorable with this idea, effectively carving a cyclonic depression in the polar westerlies over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Since we know that type of configuration is unlikely before October 7 (following the operational and ensemble forecast guidance), we can surmise that the chance for change will be mostly in the second week of next month.

If you look very closely at the numerical models, it seems obvious that a tropical storm or hurricane may be approaching the Bahamas around October 1. This is not Tropical Storm Jerry, which may be a factor in the northern Atlantic Ocean later in the new week (picked up by the polar jet stream). Most likely, it is one of the ITCZ-generated waves over the tropical Atlantic Basin, which remain healthy and appear to be dodging the shelf of hot, dry, and dusty air associated with the currently expanding Saharan heat ridge. The shearing profiles will probably relax across the western and central Caribbean Sea, so a southern route may occur as well. But how does said system interact with the Great Smokies heat ridge, which is still quite visible on all of the 11 - 15 day period charts?

My take on this is that the main lobe of the subtropical high shifts to the Carolinas, then toward Bermuda. A crease or weakness takes shape over Texas and Louisiana. The tropical cyclone rides under the ridge, through Florida or the adjoining Strait, then into the Gulf of Mexico. At that point entering the 500MB weakness, the deepening system starts a recurvature path that would take the center into the western or central Gulf Coast. As I think the variant members are a bit fast with the process, I would aim for an approach to the Interstate 10 corridor as we start the 16 - 20 day time frame. This is all conjecture, of course, but there is ample evidence to start discussing potential threats IF a cold front interacts with a warm-core disturbance. Note that the analog forecast for October is fairly hot along the Eastern Seaboard but very wet, which would seem to imply a sharper north and east shift in path scenarios should this event play out.

Yes, the forecast can change, and probably will. But after seeing the latest debacle caused by Imelda, and the torment caused by Dorian, the "better to be safe than sorry" method makes sense to me. And if it drives a wedge into this awful late-season heat ridge, that to me is a positive.
 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 8:50 P.M. CT

 

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