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Tuesday, September 24

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Good morning!

Well... the heat has returned. It's going to stay like this for about the next 10 days, and I think after that we'll see the fall temps you've been waiting on.

In the meantime...


Ridging aloft has finally given way to more zonal flow with a slight
WNW component as a shortwave trough moves past the Ohio/Tennessee
River Valleys and into the mid-Atlantic.  This morning, a weak
"cold" front in association with the shortwave will start sagging
into the forecast area. However, no relief from the heat is expected
with only drier air in store for the forecast area with the frontal
passage. Temperatures are once again forecast to climb into the 90s
for most of the forecast area through the short term period. Fun
fact, if Atlanta reaches 90 degrees for the high temperature today
and tomorrow as forecast, it will make 82 days this year (currently
at 80 days as of this writing) that ATL has reached at least 90
degrees, ranking 5th all-time. The overall record is 90 days at or
above 90 degrees in a calendar year, which we`ll have plenty of
potential of breaking with high temperatures over 10 degrees above
normal forecast through the rest of the official forecast
. Very
limited precip potential with this dry frontal system as well which
will likely continue to worsen the ongoing drought in the forecast
area. As a comparison we are 5.33 inches of rain below normal since
the start of August.


 Notice how the north Georgia area is no longer in the really dry (orange color shading) air. Also notice when you go out how it's not as cool this morning. 

I'm sorry that their main interest is on "Atlanta". I suppose you preach to the largest crowd, but I feel the temp and precip focus is too much on them. Temperatures especially. The Atlanta temperature comes from Atlanta-Hartsfield and is wildly inaccurate due to the fact that the sensor is surrounded by concrete and jet exhaust. That's why the Atlanta temp can be 10 degrees warmer than the surrounding areas, and that's one reason I've had 51 days of 90 or above compared to their 82. I'm only 40 miles away so that isn't the deciding factor. When the Georgia game was on the other night the TV station would occasionally display the temperature on the screen and it was well into the 70's when it was 58 degrees here, and no, I am NOT in the mountains, I'm 5 miles east of the Lawrenceville airport.

And yes... it's been hot, no question, no argument. I've been above normal here at the house as well, and so far this month, I'm running more than 4 degrees above my normal September. And notice that while July and August were just slightly above my "normal", June was below. If you average those three summer months, I was as close to my average as you can get (-0.13º F). What stands out to me are the months that are 3 degrees or more above normal. February at 3.5º, May at 3.7º, and now September at 4.1º. Seven months of above, 2 below so far and my 12 month trend is up by 0.8º F.



So we wait. It's kind of like sitting and watching the leaves change color... 😉 And that too will be happening soon enough. 🙂 The predicted peak this year will be later in October toward the week of the 20-27th.

We'll catch a break soon, nothing last forever and the seasons still change. To every season, turn, turn, turn. 
I liked this quote from Smokymountains.com


Autumn is a second spring when every leaf is a flower.


Have a great Tuesday!


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I think I will start posting these instead of the Model Diagnostic, it would just make more sense to people. 

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2019 - 12Z Tue Oct 01 2019

  • Much below normal temperatures expected in the West with winter weather possible for the northern Rockies
  • Much above normal temperatures expected in the eastern third of the nation
  • A couple potential rounds of heavy rain expected across the central U.S.

Pattern Overview and Guidance/Uncertainty Assessment:

Forecast confidence is a bit above average during the medium range
due to strong model consensus on the development of a highly
amplified pattern with a trough in the West and ridge in the East
The 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS solutions were clustered quite well within
the ensemble consensus, and a blend of these deterministic
solutions served as a basis for the forecast during days 3-5
(Fri-Sun). As upper-level shortwave energy traverses the
amplifying western trough and moves into the central U.S.,
multiple potential waves of low pressure should traverse a surface
front. The most significant of these waves looks likely to develop
Sat night-Sun in the lee of the Rockies, with a significant area
of precipitation likely north of the low from the northern Rockies
to the northern High Plains (rain and potential areas of snow). By
days 6-7 (Mon-Tue) model differences began to increase with
respect to whether the western trough moves east more quickly or
remains farther west as a slower and more cut off solution.
Ensembles remained in much better agreement than deterministic
solutions with below average spread, and thus a trend toward
heavier ECENS/NAEFS ensemble mean weighting was shown by early
next week.


Weather Highlights/Threats:

Expect significant precipitation over the western states to be
focused over/near the northern Rockies and into favored terrain of
the Great Basin.  Northern Rockies precip should be enhanced by a
period of upslope flow.  Recent forecasts have been consistent in
showing the greatest snowfall potential over western Montana.
While the heaviest snow will be confined to the mountains,
temperatures may be cold enough to bring some snow even to lower
elevations of the northern High Plains.  Rain/high elevation snow
should be lighter and more scattered over northern California and
the Pacific Northwest.
 Some locations may see a period of
relatively stronger winds, most likely from the Great Basin into
the central Rockies.

Farther east anticipate some moisture extending across the
northern Plains while heavier rainfall is likely within an area
centered over the Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley and western
half of the Great Lakes.  A leading frontal system will likely
stall near the southern edge of the threat area and then lift
northward in response to the wave forecast to track across the
extreme northern tier.  Shortwave energy ejecting from the
Southwest may enhance activity for a time as well.

Evolution of the eastern ridge aloft continues to favor a gradual
increase of moisture over Florida as easterly flow becomes
established.  It is still very uncertain whether the
moisture/rainfall will be enhanced by Tropical Storm Karen.
Monitor NHC forecasts for the latest information regarding Karen.

Much below normal temperatures will settle into northern parts of
the West and northern Plains by Sat and then cover more of the
West by early next week.  There will be a broad area of minus
10-25F anomalies for high temperatures and parts of Montana could
see a day or so with highs at least 30F below normal
.  Morning
lows will be less extreme but may still be at least 10F below
normal over some areas by Sun-Tue.
 Locations over the East and
even into the central/southern Plains will see plus 10-20F
anomalies for min and/or max temps.  Best potential for daily
record highs will be over the Southeast, possibly extending a
little farther westward with time corresponding to motion of the
upper high
.  A few locations farther north could see records as
well.  Morning lows may reach 20-25F above normal over parts of
the central Plains/Midwest by next Mon-Tue.


  • Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern/Central Great Basin, and the Northern Plains, Sat-Mon, Sep 28-Sep 30.
  • Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Sat, Sep 27-Sep 28.
  • Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sun-Mon, Sep 29-Sep 30.
  • Flooding possible across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Great Lakes, and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley.
  • Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Plains, the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.
  • Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains.
  • Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central/Southern Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Tue, Sep 27-Oct 1.
  • Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, California, and the Pacific Northwest, Sat-Tue, Sep 28-Oct 1.



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