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Friday, September 27

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Gooood morning!

The sunrise this morning in the Smokies is one of the most beautiful I've ever seen from these cameras. 

Look Rock camera looking east



Purchase Knob camera looking east



Looks like fall to me. 😉 

Remember the other day when they were saying no rain in sight? Well.... it's not much and won't make much of a dent in the drought, but here you are.


Main forecast concerns in the short term period are coverage of
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening and how much temperatures will
be cooled, if at all, by increased clouds and convection.

Yes, you read that right. SHRA/TSRA still indicated by most
convective-allowing and even global models this afternoon. PoPs/
coverage up to 30-40% expected over much of middle GA with lowest
coverage (15-20%) over NE GA
. While odds are pretty good considering
how bone dry its been, significant rainfall amounts will be very
isolated. If you`re lucky, you might see a quarter to a half inch,
but most will see little if any rain. And of course any convective
rain, even over an inch, won`t make a dent in the current drought.

All model guidance has been 2-3 degs too cool last few days. Would
have adjusted upwards more than the 1 deg, but guidance does
indicate greater cloud cover. If any storms fire before 1 PM, could
have some nice cooling from outflows to knock temps down some.

Subjective experience is that even with coverage over 30%, usually
temps get within a degree or two of what they would have with no
rain/clouds. Included record temps below
. They`re a little higher
than yesterday at a few sites, but still expect daily records to be
broken, certainly at KMCN.

Easterly sfc flow continues Saturday and low level moisture expected
to increase quite a bit. Focusing and lift should be more over
northern and western GA, so PoPs higher there but a little lower
than today (20-30%)
. Pulse storms could be a little stronger with
higher instability on Saturday, gusty winds, lightning and pockets
of brief heavy rain. QPF still low, so no drought relief in sight.


You can see where the cooler, drier air is this morning by the dewpoints. Can't wait for that first cold front to push through and we start seeing our dewpoints in the 40's.



And of course, along with those dewpoints come temps like these.



The GFS and Euro ensembles are still in agreement with our first fall cool down. The GFS is a little quicker (typical bias) but by October 5th, both models show a significant 15-20 degrees drop in temperatures for north Georgia. The GFS ensembles potentially show another 15 degree drop around Sunday the 13th, so that's something to be looking for.

So relief and fall are almost here. Stay cool today. I hate to use Joe Bastardi's closing, but when the weather is stuck in a terrible pattern and everyone is tired and miserable, remember what Joe always says: "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got". 🙂 

Have a great day!


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