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NorthGeorgiaWX

Monday, September 30

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Good Monday morning to everyone!

Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend, even though you probably lost a little weight due to all of the sweating that occurred. I think all of the rain we had the other day was actually evaporated sweat. 🤪

Here's a water vapor image that includes temperatures and 300 mb pressures.

Snap346062676.thumb.jpg.5fb16376ecf7e9a76beb0f6db40cfebf.jpg

 

Yesterday parts of the NW US set record low temperatures as well as new snow records. Take a look:

Quote

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE, WA
0100 AM PDT MON SEP 30 2019

...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET IN SPOKANE WA...
...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES SET ACROSS THE REGION...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.4 INCHES WAS SET AT SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL RECORDED ON
THIS DATE SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN TAKEN IN SPOKANE BEGINNING IN
JANUARY OF 1881. THIS BRINGS SPOKANE'S TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE
MONTH OF SEPTEMBER TO 3.3 INCHES, MAKING SEPTEMBER 2019 THE SNOWIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD FOR THE CITY.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 38 DEGREES AT THE SPOKANE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT BROKE THE RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 50 DEGREES SET IN 1959.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 41 DEGREES AT THE PULLMAN-MOSCOW REGIONAL
AIRPORT BROKE THE RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 47 DEGREES SET IN 1954.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 43 DEGREES AT WENATCHEE'S PANGBORN MEMORIAL
AIRPORT BROKE THE RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 59 DEGREES SET IN 2007.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES AT THE OMAK, WA AIRPORT BROKE THE
RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 48 DEGREES SET IN 1971.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 49 DEGREES AT LEWISTON'S NEZ PERCE COUNTY
AIRPORT BROKE THE RECORD FOR COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 54 DEGREES SET IN 1961.

 

While here at home:

Quote

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATHENS YESTERDAY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATHENS YESTERDAY,
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1933.

------------------------

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA YESTERDAY...

 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA
YESTERDAY, SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET
IN 1941.

----------------------

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MACON YESTERDAY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 DEGREES WAS SET AT MACON YESTERDAY,
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 29. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1941.

--------------------

 

 

If you can make it 5 more days, your fall relief is on the way.  Today is pick on Blairsville day, so adjust these temperatures for your area outside of the mountains. These are the GFS ensemble mean temperatures. The second image below is the same thing, but it displays each individual ensemble member. The GFS has 20 of those plus one control member. That means for each model run, the GEFS makes 20 individual runs, with each one slightly "tweaked" during the initialization process. You end up with 20 slightly different runs that are then averaged (first image). Keep in mind that the Euro ensembles have 50 members and 1 control run, so a lot more runs to average. In the second image also note the error bars. Those skinny blue bars in the bottom graph show the range of the high/low temperatures to give you an idea how much the members differ from each other. As the ensemble members start to agree with each other, those lines get shorter and shorter. 

gfs-KDZJ-daily_tmin_tmax-9801600.thumb.png.003904b7d227378f4b8cde32ec0da3be.png

gfs-KDZJ-indiv_tmp-9801600.thumb.png.7543c0b6433102007833b5525565aed4.png

 

The Euro ensembles pretty much agrees with the GFS, just 12 hours or so slower and a degree or two warmer through the 9th. And the good part, the heat does not return.

Notice too that I like to use the ensembles up until a 3-4 days away from a target date. I would rather use the avg from 20-50 runs than take the values from one run as gospel. Within 3 days the operational versions of these models are generally accurate enough to trust. 

So a few more days of suffering and fall will be here. I see two step downs coming immediately, the first onet around the 5th, and maybe another reinforcing step around the 9th. Beat that heat down I say!

Have a great Monday! 🙂 

forecast-30.jpg.005d96900cd25b58e4fc266d364dbe05.jpg

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA, MT
0150 AM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT MISSOULA MT...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.7 INCHES WAS SET AT MISSOULA MT YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE SET IN 1954. FURTHERMORE, THIS
MEASUREMENT IS ALSO THE GREATEST MEASURED IN SEPTEMBER AT MISSOULA
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893.

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SPACEWEATHER.COM

2019 IS A DEEP SOLAR MINIMUM: Today, the sun racked up its 198th spotless day of the year. So far in 2019, the sun has been blank 73% of the time. This is the same percentage as the year 2008--previously the least sun-spotty year of the Space Age. If Solar Minimum continues to deepen, 2019 will soon claim the undisputed throne of Space Age spotlessness, marking it as a century-class minimum in solar activity.

Screen_Shot_2019_09_30_at_5_07_12_AM.png.5fb3049c3bd192fbebd8b9c6eb7e8209.png

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7 minutes ago, MNW said:

Like to have a fall then bring the snow on !!

I just wish fall would hurry up and get here. You know, before all the plants are dead. 😉

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WOW! For a place that gets a lot of snow, this is VERY impressive. Let's hope it's a harbinger of things to come for us.

----------------------------------------

..RECORD SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SEPTEMBER IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...

LOCATION           NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
BYNUM 4SSE            31.6           4.8         1965       1949
   SECOND HIGHEST FOR ANY MONTH. THE RECORD IS 48.1 INCHES FEB 2018


CHOTEAU                    19.0          15.0         1934       1893
EAST GLACIER         E15.0          24.0         1985       1949
   PRELIMINARY...WILL LIKELY BREAK MONTHLY RECORD


FORT BENTON           10.1           5.5         1965       1894
GRASS RANGE            9.0           4.0         1973       1914
GREAT FALLS            19.3          13.2         1934       1886
HAVRE                     E12.0           8.7         1934       1880
   PRELIMINARY...WILL LIKELY BREAK MONTHLY RECORD


LOMA                          5.0           3.0         1984       1950
SIMPSON 6N             8.0           5.5         1972       1950
SUN RIVER 4S          14.2           8.5         1957       1948
TURNER 11N            13.4           2.0         1957       1948

GOLD BUTTE RECORDED 10.1-INCHES OF SNOW FOR SEPTEMBER. THIS IS THEIR
HIGHEST SEPTEMBER SNOWFALL SINCE 1907 (15.5-INCHES).

STANFORD RECORDED 9.0-INCHES, WHICH IS THEIR HIGHEST SEPTEMBER SNOW
SINCE 1973 (10-INCHES)
. THE RECORD IS 11-INCHES IN 1965.

A 24-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 17.7-INCHES AT GREAT FALLS ON THE 28TH AND 29TH
SET A NEW ALL-TIME 24-HR SNOWFALL RECORD
. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
16.8-INCHES ON APRIL 20, 1973. THE 19.3-INCHES WHICH FELL ON THE 28TH
AND 29TH WAS THE SECOND HIGHEST TWO-DAY TOTAL AT GREAT FALLS. THE
RECORD IS 24.2-INCHES ON APRIL 28-29, 2009
.

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