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Thursday, October 3

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Good morning!

Well... can you make it two more days? I mean dang... this is like watching paint dry. Let's get this cooler air on the move!

NWS Atlanta

Quote

A slow moving cold front across roughly central GA to start
the long term period will get pushed south as strong high
pressure moves to the eastern seaboard and noses down the
Appalachians. This will be the start of the cool down.
The flow off the Atlantic will bring some moisture into the
area with mainly small chances for showers or a thunderstorm
on Saturday. Rain chances will continue on Sunday and favor
north GA but will increase Sunday night and Monday ahead of a
cold front forecast to move across the area on Monday, with the
greatest rain chances favoring north Georgia.
This system will be part of the pattern shift with an upper
level trough associated with the cold front.

Rain chances will be decreasing Monday night and Tuesday
and Wednesday is expected to be mainly dry as surface high
pressure once again moves to the eastern seaboard.
The central Ga area will likely experience some moisture
around the high on Wednesday and you can not completely rule
out a shower, but confidence is too low at this time.

 

Don't read too much into the rain part of the forecast... the WPC is not very gungho on rainfall through Tuesday evening as shown by this image. I mean 0.04" for me? Really? That wouldn't even wet the ground. 

wpc-georgia-total_precip_inch-0579200.thumb.png.9c1e9b534c1952e5aa41e4eb6c50f76e.png

 

Today we're going to pick on Canton/Cherokee county and have a look at those upcoming temps from the GFS ensemble. How does THAT look for you?

gfs-KCNI-daily_tmin_tmax-0060800.thumb.png.eb8f73d42577c2c18d76a5fc31db78f9.png

Here is a VERY slow loop of the upcoming temperatures from the GFS. It goes hour by hour until it gets to 120 hours, and at that point it's every 3 hours. Grab a cup of coffee, it will take a couple of minutes to view. 🙂 I set the speed slow so you could actually see the date/time/your temp instead of everything flashing by.

gfs-deterministic-se-t2m_f-1570082400-1570082400-1570816800-200.thumb.gif.c09ac7dad3cf669ae0ab4268693623c0.gif

 

Today's map shows the upper level low that brought snow and record cold to the northern Rockies moving out across the northern plains while another waits in the wings over the Pacific NW. Meanwhile we're still stuck for under a brutal area of high pressure. That high will begin to shift west and will drag the heat with it. 

Snap346062709.thumb.jpg.4da6b961923cbd5f0655df9ef1f082da.jpg

 

I mentioned the potential for some cyclogenesis in the Gulf next week, and if that were to develop, it may bring some additional rain for our area. It's too early to know anything at all about the possibility, but it's something to watch for.

 

So keep repeating with me... two more days, two more days, two more days. Saturday I will be saying "ahhhhhhhh". 🙂

Have a great Thursday!

forecast-03.jpg.8740b8a8440c2d155a1255247d80c8ff.jpg

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I know heat has kinda become the norm but I'm truly struggling to wrap my head around the kind of heat being seen today in the eastern US given that it is October. Records aren't just getting broken they are being absolutely shattered. 90+ degree days are frankly rare here in the mountains, maybe 2-5 a year on average. We are easily nearing 20+ this year and it's now 93 degrees on the 3rd of October, the 2nd hottest day of the year so far. And the hottest at 95, happened just 3 weeks ago. Unprecedented...that front can't come fast enough. 

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37 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

I know heat has kinda become the norm but I'm truly struggling to wrap my head around the kind of heat being seen today in the eastern US given that it is October. Records aren't just getting broken they are being absolutely shattered. 90+ degree days are frankly rare here in the mountains, maybe 2-5 a year on average. We are easily nearing 20+ this year and it's now 93 degrees on the 3rd of October, the 2nd hottest day of the year so far. And the hottest at 95, happened just 3 weeks ago. Unprecedented...that front can't come fast enough. 

This heat rivals the 20's and 30's, so it is certainly record hot. And I agree about the heat... relief can't come soon enough. I hit 97.8º F today, beat my personal high on this date by 10 degrees. The heat is starting to shrink and the area should be even smaller tomorrow. 

Snap346062715.thumb.jpg.df47be5cd94e03d7c01d3e6c83d2faf7.jpg

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We all know about the heat and those records, but you don't hear about these.

Quote

...LIST OF RECORDS FOR TEMPERATURE AND SNOWFALL SET ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM SEPTEMBER 28 - OCTOBER 3 2019...

RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SEPT 29

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
ADEL               27            36          1954       1898
BOZEMAN APT        35            40          1983       1935
CHINOOK            36            38          1925       1895
CHOTEAU            28            34          1954       1893
CHINOOK            36            38          1925       1895
CONRAD             30            34          1925       1911
CUT BANK           28            32          1954       1903
DILLON APT         29            36          1950       1929
EAST GLACIER       24            34          1985       1949
FAIRFIELD          29            34          1954       1948
GIBSON DAM         32            34          1954       1948
GOLD BUTTE         32            34          1925       1905
GRASS RANGE        34            42          2018       1914
GREAT FALLS        32            35          1954       1886
HAVRE              33            39          1982       1880
HELENA             33            38          1925       1866
HOLTER DAM         30            37          1954       1903
LEWISTOWN          32            34          1950       1896
SIMPSON            33            45          1985       1948
STANFORD           32            37          1954       1927
TURNER             32            36          1982       1948
TOWNSEND           34            41          1965       1901

ROCKER PEAK SNOTEL REACHED A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 20F ON THE
29TH. THIS IS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF RECORD FOR THE DATE IN
MONTANA. THE PREVIOUS COLD MAXIMUM FOR THE 29TH WAS AT COOKE CITY IN
1985.


RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SEPT 30

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
ADEL               24            34          1983       1898
CHINOOK            36            37          1983       1895
CHOTEAU            30            31          2018       1893
CONRAD             33   (TIED)   33          2018       1911
CUT BANK           30            32          2018       1903
DILLON AIRPORT     32            33          1950       1929
DUNKIRK            36   (TIED)   36          1950       1912
EAST GLACIER       24            37          1983       1949
FAIRFIELD          29            31          1954       1948
FORT BENTON        35            40          1950       1862
GIBSON DAM         29            32          1954       1948
GOLD BUTTE         31            34          1925       1905
GRASS RANGE        35            37          2018       1914
GREAT FALLS APT    31            33          1950       1886
HOLTER DAM         34   (TIED)   34          1950       1903
LEWISTOWN APT      31   (TIED)   31          1950       1896
SHELBY             31            34          2018       1896
SIMPSON            33            37          1983       1948
STANFORD           29            33          2018       1927
TURNER             32            36          1983       1948
TOWNSEND           40   (TIED)   40          1950       1901

EAST GLACIER'S HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 24F ON THE 30TH SET A NEW DAILY
COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE IN MONTANA.


RECORD COOL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 1

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
ADEL               26            30          1950       1898
CHINOOK            40            43          1909       1895
CHOTEAU            32            37          2050       1893
CUT BANK           27            34          1999       1903
DILLON AIRPORT     36            37          1971       1929
FORT BENTON        35            38          2018       1862
GIBSON DAM         29   (TIED)   29          1950       1948
GOLD BUTTE         34            36          1916       1905
GREAT FALLS APT    34            36          1999       1886
SHELBY             30            34          2018       1896
TURNER             32            36          1950       1948

##################################################################

RECORD COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SEPT 30

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
ADEL               13            17          1985       1898
CHOTEAU            23            23          1985       1893
CUT BANK            6            19          1959       1903
FAIRFIELD          13            24          1985       1948
GIBSON DAM         14            21          1985       1948
GREAT FALLS APT    12            22          1985       1886
HOLTER DAM         25   (TIED)   25          1905       1903

FAIRFIELD SET A NEW ALL-TIME LOW FOR SEPTEMBER. THEIR PREVIOUS
COLDEST SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE WAS 15F SET IN 1934.


RECORD COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 1

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
CHOTEAU             4            11          1909       1893
CUT BANK            1            14          1950       1903
FORT BENTON        14            16          1950       1862
GIBSON DAM         12            13          1950       1948
GREAT FALLS APT     9            22          1959       1886
HOLTER DAM         18            21          1950       1903
SHELBY              8            16          1999       1896
SUN RIVER           7            18          1959       1948

BLACKFEET AGRIMET SET A RECORD FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF RECORD
IN MONTANA FOR OCTOBER 1. THEY DROPPED TO -6F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD
FOR THE DATE WAS 1F AT KINGS HILL IN 1950. THIS WAS THE EARLIEST 0F
OR COLDER TEMPERATURE IN MONTANA SINCE 1985.


RECORD COOL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 2

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
CHOTEAU             7            21          1950       1893
CUT BANK            8            15          1925       1903
DUNKIRK            16            21          1971       1912
FORT BENTON        14            21          1944       1862
GIBSON DAM         17            23          1999       1948
GREAT FALLS APT    17            18          1999       1886
HOLTER DAM         21            26          1999       1903

BLACKFEET AGRIMET SET A RECORD FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF RECORD
IN MONTANA FOR OCTOBER 2. THEY DROPPED TO -2F. THE PREVIOUS RECORD
FOR THE DATE WAS 4F NEAR OPHEIM IN 1999.


CUT BANK FELL TO FREEZING AROUND MIDNIGHT ON SEPTEMBER 28. THEY
REMAINED BELOW FREEZING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON OCTOBER 3. THIS 5-
DAY PERIOD IS THE LONGEST TO SO EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS AND IMPRESSIVE 4-DAYS FROM SEPTEMBER 22-25, 1934.


##################################################################

RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION FOR SEPT 29 (INCHES)

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
CHOTEAU           0.60          0.55         1925       1893
GREAT FALLS APT   0.60          0.40         1937       1886
HAVRE             0.65          0.44         1925       1903
SIMPSON           0.30          0.22         1966       1948
TURNER            1.10          0.64         1977       1948


#################################################################

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR SEPT 28 (INCHES)

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
GREAT FALLS APT    9.7           6.1         1954       1886


RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR SEPT 29 (INCHES)

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
CHOTEAU            9.0           6.0         1925       1893
GRASS RANGE        6.0           1.0         1983       1914
GREAT FALLS APT    9.6           1.1         1954       1886
STANFORD           3.0           1.9         1954       1927
TOWNSEND           1.0             0         2015       1948
TURNER             1.5           0.5         1950       1948

GREAT FALLS RECORDED A 24-HOUR SNOWFALL OF 17.7-INCHES, WHICH FELL
BETWEEN 11AM ON THE 28TH AND 11AM ON THE 29TH. THIS SET A NEW ALL-
TIME 24-HR RECORD AT GREAT FALLS. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 16.8-
INCHES ON APRIL 20, 1973. THE TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 19.3-INCHES
WAS GREAT FALLS' SECOND HIGHEST TWO-DAY TOTAL. THE RECORD IS 24.2-
INCHES SET APRIL 28-29, 2009.


RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL FOR SEPTEMBER (INCHES)

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
BYNUM             31.6           4.8         1965       1898
CHOTEAU           20.0          15.0         1934       1893
EAST GLACIER      41.0          24.0         1985       1949
FORT BENTON       10.1           5.5         1965       1862
GOLD BUTTE        19.0          15.5         1907       1905
GRASS RANGE        9.0           4.0         1973       1914
GREAT FALLS APT   19.3          13.2         1934       1886
HAVRE             10.1           8.7         1934       1880
LOMA               5.0           3.0         1984       1950
SIMPSON            8.0           5.5         1972       1931
SUN RIVER         14.2           8.5         1957       1941
TURNER            13.4           2.0         1957       1948


RECORD HIGH SNOW DEPTH FOR SEPTEMBER (INCHES)

LOCATION       NEW RECORD    OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
CHOTEAU             20            15         1934       1893
CUT BANK            18             5         1947       1903
EAST GLACIER        37            10         1984       1949
GOLD BUTTE          11             6         1934       1905
GRASS RANGE          5             3         1957       1914
LOMA                 5             2         1965       1950
SIMPSON              4             1         1972       1931
SUN RIVER           13             9         1957       1941


RECORD HIGH DAILY SNOW DEPTH  (INCHES)

LOCATION    DATE NEW RECORD  OLD RECORD    YEAR SET  RECORDS BEGAN
CUT BANK    10/1    11             T         191989     1903
CUT BANK    10/2     9             2         1947       1903
CUT BANK    10/3     9             2         2018       1903

GREAT FALLS HAD AN ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE RANGE OF 79F (MAX 91, MIN
12) IN SEPTEMBER. THIS TIED WITH THE YEAR 2000 FOR THE LARGEST
ABSOLUTE RANGE FOR SEPTEMBER.

 

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