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Friday, October 4

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Good morning! Happy Friday!!!

You know what this day is don't you? It's the day before "unofficial" fall! 🙂 

Even though today may break more records, I'm done with the miserable heat. Let's move on.

NWS Atlanta


Changes are still on the way in the long-term forecast period. The
record-breaking heat will end, and more manageable temperatures will
make an appearance
. The first cooldown will begin Saturday as
surface high pressure over New England forces a backdoor cold front
into the area. Ahead of this front, temperatures will still warm
well above normal across the western and southern portions of the
area while much cooler air will filter into the northeastern
quadrant of the area. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this front
, though any rain
that falls will be well short of what is needed given the
increasingly significant drought.

A more significant cold front will approach by late Monday into
. While at least scattered showers and thunderstorms are
still expected along and ahead of this front, particularly across
far north Georgia, models continue to indicate lackluster QPF
amounts. Even the heaviest totals across far northwest Georgia will
likely struggle to reach a quarter to a half inch. Given very
marginal instability, strong or severe thunderstorms are not
currently a concern. Behind this front midweek, temperatures will be
much closer to normal for October, though likely still a few degrees
above normal.

The discussion from the Greenville/Spartanburg NWS highlights the significant drop in temperatures.


Of course, by far the bigger story will be the
dramatic temperature swing, from the almost 20 degrees above climo
weather that we have been experiencing, to around 10 degrees below
climo that is expected for most locations Sat afternoon, or a 25-30
degree swing that will finally bring a true end to our summer of

This first wave of cooler air will come via a backdoor cold front, starting from the NE part of the state and moving west. The second cold front on Tuesday will be the more conventional type moving in from the NW. I say all of this,  because with is first one, the NE side of the state will see the cooler air before the west side, and with the second one, it will work the other way around. Soooo... Saturday will be cooler NE and warmer NW. 

Today... hmmm, let's pick on Cobb County today. Your GFS ensemble temps .



Of course everyone needs rain right now, and there will be a chance, but don't expect anything that resembles a drought buster. In fact, some areas (including me) show no rain at all in the WPC 7 day forecast.



The morning look at the US shows the next large trough moving into the NW US while our stubborn high pressure starts to fade away. Notice the Atl airport temp of 80 while the surrounding area is low 70's or less. I don't know why they should even track that temperature.



It is no surprise to anyone that we're in an extreme drought and here are the latest drought maps for Georgia and the US.

Georgia Drought Map


Rain Needed to Mitigate the Drought



Crop Moisture Index



Wildfire Potential




I also have some other news regarding this discussion forum. There will soon be a native app for both Android and Apple devices, and hopefully that will make using the forum easier.



So that's it for now... I hope you have a great rest of the day!


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Morristown NWS in Tennessee...


The cold front is now to the south of the forecast area with
cooler and drier air advecting into the southern Appalachians.
The previous forecast is in pretty good shape with highs today
around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday,

NWS Huntsville


The well advertised dry cold front has now passed thru the cntrl TN
Valley and has moved into north GA into cntrl AL/MS. Current temps
behind the frontal passage range mainly in the lower 70s over mid TN
into the mid/upper 70s across north AL. Sfc winds have also turned to
the NNE near 10 MPH with higher gusts. Slightly cooler/drier air
should continue to spread into the area from the NNE later today, as
evidenced by temps in the mid/upper 60s from mid TN into KY


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In other good news, we may have a warmer November but a cold and stormy December. 

Now... back to the regularly scheduled program... 😉

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