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Saturday, October 5

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Good morning! 

This is it! The start of something new. Have you ever thought of the seasons like  a circle of life? 

The Atlanta NWS office finally has a long AFD this morning, probably the longest of the endless summer. 


Looks like we are officially done with the extremely hot temps and
we can finally start getting closer to seasonal norms.
The main
upper level ridge that has been dominating the weather pattern has
weakened and will continue to push off the GA/SC coast through Sunday
night. At the surface a wedge of high pressure is currently building
down the eastern seaboard. Current satellite loop shows the clouds
associated with the wedge pushing SW across the Carolinas this
morning. This wedge is expected to push into eastern GA by sunrise.
This wedge is what will setup moist cool easterly flow with gusty
winds across the state today
. The moisture moving in is not that
deep so not expecting much in the way of precip this afternoon but
still keeping a 20-30 percent chance of pops across the area through
. The biggest thing we will see from this pattern shift will
be the decreased daytime high temps. High temps today will be
anywhere from 10-25 deg less than what we saw yesterday.
Looking for
highs in the 70s across eastern portions of the state with 80s to
near 90 elsewhere. This wedge will keep cool easterly flow across
the area through the short term with high temps expected again in
the 70s and 80s Sunday.

As the extended period begins, high pressure to the east of the New
England coast will keep a persistent wedge-like pattern and easterly
flow in place over the forecast area. This continued easterly flow
will keep low level moisture steadily increasing across the area on
Sunday night, which will contribute to some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms lingering on Sunday night. Low-end chance
PoPs are anticipated across far north Georgia and slight chance
Although the wedge will weaken Sunday night and Monday as
the parent high moves off to the east, its influence will
nonetheless keep temperatures relatively cooler. Temperatures will
still remain several above climatological normals on Sunday night
and into Monday, but are not expected to approach any record values.

On Monday, an upper-level trough and associated cold front are
expected to approach the area. Ahead of this front, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to enter
northwest Georgia on Monday and push southeastward out of the area
by late Tuesday night.
The dynamics and instability associated with
this frontal system are expected to be marginal, so widespread
severe weather is not expected to be a concern as the front passes
through north and central Georgia. The overall QPF associated with
this frontal system is expected to range from about a half inch to
three quarters of an inch across north Georgia, and less than a half
inch in central Georgia.
These rainfall totals will are not expected
to make much of a dent in the increasingly significant drought.

After the front clears the area, the post-frontal surface high will
move eastward from the Great Lakes region towards New England and
promote ridging along the Appalachians through the later parts of
the week. Cool, easterly flow is expected to set up across the
forecast area, bringing temperatures to their coolest so far this
season. High temperatures in the upper 70s across northern Georgia
and low to mid 80s across central Georgia are anticipated each
. By the end of the week and into next weekend, another
cold front will likely approach the area. However, significant
discrepancies remain in the model guidance regarding the timing and
development of this system at this time.


Here's a look at our temperatures this morning. The cooler air pushing in on NE winds will help to keep the temps close to where they are right now. 



Notice in this dewpoint view, how the air is not particularly dry, as it is pulling moisture off of the Atlantic. Regardless, both the temps and dewpoints will be lower today and from here on out. 



Now that we've broken out of the pattern we were stuck in, it looks like the frontal passages will be about every 5-7 days for now. Each one will bring a step down in temperatures. The cooler air we'll see initially is modified air from the Atlantic, so it won't be a dry initially. As time goes on the cold air will originate from points further north, and will become drier. 

The weather map this morning shows a strong cold front draped across the central part of the country, and that will be the next system we'll be watching for Monday/Tuesday. Heavy rains are falling in place where they don't need and while we desperately need some and can't buy a drop.  The progression of troughs across the northern part of the county will continue unabated for a while, and each one will be bringing cooler air with each passage.



Today will be pick on Gilmer County and the Ellijay area. GFS ensemble temperature guidance. 'Ya likin' that? 🙂 I know I do!


So that's pretty much it for now. The main thing is that everyone needs to go outside today and enjoy the new beginning.
Have a great fall Saturday!

Hail, old October, bright and chill,
First freedman from the summer sun!
Spice high the bowl, and drink your fill!
Thank heaven, at last the summer's done!
–Thomas Constable (1812–81)

James Taylor has always been one of my favorite artist, and I thought of this song when I started this post. To me, it's a song of hope after a time of despair. When I hear it I think of a new start and I guess that's one reason I thought about it this morning, we have a new start with our weather today.

Always be thankful for another day... 


Wake up Suzy, put your shoes on,
Walk with me into this light, oh,
Finally this morning,
I'm feeling whole again,
It was a hell of a night.

Just to be with you by my side,
Just to have you near in my sight.
Just to walk a while in this light,
Just to know that life goes on.
Wake up Suzy, put your shoes on,
Walk with me into this light.
Another night has gone,
Life goes on,
Another dawn is breaking.
Turn and face the sun,
One by one,
The world outside is waking.

Morning light has driven away all
The shadows that hide your way.
And night has given away to
The promise of another day.
Another day, another chance
That we may finally find our way.
Another day, the sun has begun
To melt all our fears away.
Another day, another day.
Oh, wake up Suzy, put your shoes on,
Walk with me into this light.
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I do believe that you are an old soul. Beautiful song and a promising forecast.

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27 minutes ago, MNW said:

I do believe that you are an old soul. Beautiful song and a promising forecast.

🙂 Thank you. I hope that's a good thing. 🙂


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