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NorthGeorgiaWX

Sunday, October 6

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Good Sunday morning! 

How about yesterday? I know everyone didn't completely get in on the wedge like some of us did, but man, what an awesome day. Here in Gwinnett, I stayed in the upper 60's for most of the day with cloudy skies and breezy conditions. What a relief. We had the windows and doors open all day, and slept with the windows open last night. And just know... this is just the start. 🙂 

We'll be up and down this week with some minor chances for rain, but nothing to write home about. 

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We are firmly entrenched into the wedge with cool moist easterly
flow across the entire area.
Current radar loop shows a line of
showers that appears to have developed along the wedge front
boundary across NW GA. These showers are light and they appear to be
diminishing but will keep a close watch over the next few hours for
any progression. The wedge is expected to continue across the region
today but it will weaken a bit through this afternoon/evening.
Currently we have overcast low clouds across the state but as we go
through the day we will see these clouds lift and begin to scatter
out.

 The moist easterly flow will continue through
tonight so will see some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across the state but our next real chance for
precip will be Monday with the approaching cold front. Currently
this frontal system is developing as it extends from the central
plains to the central great lake states. This system does not make
much easterly movement today as the high pressure wedge keeps it
from pushing in to fast. With the wedge breaking down today this
front begins to spread precip into NW GA by 06z-12z Monday and
continues pushing into the state through Monday night.
This frontal
system does loose a lot of its dynamics and structure as it pushes
across the Appalachians and into GA but we will still see some
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday
. Instability
indices are not to spectacular with this system but the PWs do
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7in range from 12z Mon to 00z Tues. High
temps will remain mainly in the 70s and 80s across the area with
lows in the 60s.
 

On Wednesday, surface high pressure will transition northeastward
from the Great Lakes region towards the east Canada coast. As it
does, a weak wedge pattern will develop over the region. Cooler
easterly flow is also expected to set up across the forecast area,

although weak upper level ridging developing over the southeastern
CONUS will keep temperatures above average. High temperatures
ranging from the upper 70s in far north Georgia to the mid 80s in
central Georgia will be about 4-8 degrees above climatological
normals.

By the end of the week and into next weekend, another
cold front will approach the area, which could bring about a more
significant cooldown behind the front.
At this time, significant
timing discrepancies still exist regarding the timing of the
front.

 

7 Day Rainfall

wpc-conus-total_precip_inch-0968000.thumb.png.d61b8dcfed4f783e836ced644600ec37.png

 

Here's a look at our temperatures this morning. There is still a decent level of moisture around, so the night time temperatures aren't dropping super low right now. But still... I'll take this weather any day. 

Snap346062735.thumb.jpg.a6abc876a173ebbcf03a6a862d1cd8f2.jpg

 

Here's a look at the bigger picture. A large trough is passing across the north central part of the the country today, and you can see the cooler temperatures associated with that feature. Here in the south, we pretty much have a zonal type flow, while the northern part of the country has a very progressive flow with features quickly passing from west to east. Those features will bring glancing blows to us this week until the larger push comes with a much stronger shot of cold air next weekend.

Snap346062736.thumb.jpg.d9f4830d1ed32b1b61ce2fc5cccefef2.jpg

 

If you remember, I said yesterday that the timing in our pattern here in our part of the world is about 7 days right now, and next weekend looks like it may be the next big step down in our temperatures. The Cranky Weather Guy seems very interested in that system as well.

 

Here's a hint at the temperature anomalies with the GFS. Notice the mid Monday/Tuesday cool down and then watch the cold air come blasting in at the end of the week.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_anom-1570320000-1570320000-1571140800-40.thumb.gif.c9c0f2919206b1707ff5b4704e8cb697.gif

 

And what we are experiencing right now are still above normal temperatures. These are the GFS temp anomalies around 8 am this morning.

gfs-conus-t2m_f_anom-0363200.thumb.png.b9df720f1c34503d21a3db4e73a6411f.png

So expect mild temperatures this week, with our highs in the 70's and 80's. No more 90's thank goodness, but we're still not where we need to be, but it's coming. 🙂

I hope everyone has a great Sunday, enjoy this weather!

forecast-06.jpg.6f258095ad3f2d7c7c101ffa22a8efbe.jpg

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On the idea that one of the more energetic shortwaves and surface cold fronts is bound to interact with the tropics in the longer term, we may be seeing a meaningful change to cooler weather across the U.S. to the right of the Rocky Mountains in the 11 - 15 day period. That would mean a definitive move away from the ridge-dominated JAS period, and one which could best be termed seasonable-to-cool. But if you look carefully at the GFS and CFS model suites, you see that there is a price to be paid for the switch to "real October" in the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
 
The American equations in the longer term have not performed very well since June, and you would have every right to doubt a possible extreme weather solution from Florida up along the Eastern Seaboard by October 18 - 21. Most other model guidance gives hints at a developing circulation nearing the Yucatan Peninsula leading up to this time frame. If recent indications of a more amplified upper flow are correct, the last trough in the sequence will "kick out" the low pressure center. If so, with a relatively warm water array of temperatures still not all that cold (which would kill or convert the surface convective pattern), some further organization of the circulation and pressure falls can be expected. Since the ECMWF and GGEM ensembles seem to favor a moderately strong trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes, there would be enough room to take the cyclone slightly inland on a path from FL to ME. Which is just what the GFS ensemble package is suggesting.
 
I am fairly confident that the month of October will be in the mild West (maybe cool in BC, WA, and OR), cool Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and mild/warm Appalachia/East Coast. So far the analog forecasts have been performing better than the extended range model outcomes like the CFS and ECMWF series. That difference may prove quite critical in the prediction for November and the winter months (DJFM). I posted the ECMWF weeklies and monthlies here so you can see where that model family is headed. Mostly in the mild/warm direction, fairly close to the predictions since September 5. But there are some subtle changes. The scheme shows some modest cool intrusions into the Great Plains, and then the Midwest Great Lakes. And while November is largely quite warm, the colder profiles across the West tend to disappear and reform further east in February.
 
In as many words, it can be said that perhaps the numerical models are starting to take the neutral ENSO signal theory with some seriousness. While an erratic predictor (and one which should NEVER be used as a sole determinant for a seasonal forecast), the potential for at least a more normal winter, or maybe even colder-skewed, is growing just a bit. I suspect that typhoon injection processes and the position of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (we would need a strong Phase 6,7,8 position that is linked to the polar jet stream) must be watched carefully into early November.
 
But in the meantime, just be glad that the damned heat ridge is gone!
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, October 5, 2019 at 8:35 P.M. CT
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I realize that many people living in the eastern half of the nation are "chomping at the bit" to see a breathtaking cool intrusion arrive. To paraphrase the slogan that parents tell their children during long car drives, "we aren't quite there yet!" Temperatures over the Midwest and Northeast will mostly be near or somewhat below seasonal normal. The Deep South and especially Florida still look warm in the 6 - 10 day period, but only in the FL Peninsula could readings still be termed hot. There may be chances for thunderstorms close to the Gulf Coast which may aid in dropping values even more. But the best chance for a true polar (cP) regime will likely not reach the length of the Interstate 95 corridor until maybe October 14 - 15.

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The ridge complex responsible for the unusually long and hot summer from the lower/middle Great Plains through the Old South is finally (drum roll please....) breaking down. This is a slow process, and some locations close to the Gulf Coast may still see some extreme heat as late as Wednesday. But the surface temperature maps and 500MB forecast chart do not lie. By Tuesday, the offending long-lived subtropical high will be consigned to the pages of weather history, likely not to return until (at least) the summer season of 2020

 

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We need to watch Tropical Storm Hagibib out in the Pacific. Computer models take this to a Super Typhoon and would make it one of the few really strong storms in the Pacific this year. Recurving typhoons like this can merge with the polar westerlies, much like hurricanes when they reach the north Atlantic, and cause an amplification of the jet stream.  That in turn could bring sharply cooler temperatures downstream to the eastern parts of the US next weekend. We'll watch this carefully.

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