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NorthGeorgiaWX

Monday, October 7

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Good Monday morning! 🙂

I hope you enjoyed the weekend weather, it's just a sign of things to come! 

Watching and hoping that this line of showers and thunderstorms makes it into Georgia today, but I fear that it may weaken considerably before it does. Folks in the NW and northern counties across north Georgia have a better chance of seeing rain than those of us further south. Good luck! I'm cheering for you!

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Notice that we aren't seeing the big amplified SE heat ridge that gave us the never ending summer. The new pattern has our typical ups and downs that change with the surface features. We'll see brief warm ups ahead of cold fronts, but we'll spend the majority of the time under cooler or seasonable weather.

And our temperatures don't change much this week, with everyone hanging around the upper 70's to low 80's.  The front that is knocking on our doorstep is weak and the energy that's generating the showers and thunderstorms is lifting north and east as the front pushes our direction, so the cooler air just barely brushes north Georgia. It's pick on Lawrenceville day using the GFS ensembles.

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Here's a look at the GFS temperature outlook through the 15th-16th time frame. You can see this first front wash out but watch what happens later in the week. This looks like our next big step down. Also notice that the flow is still mostly zonal with no big amplifications in the systems right now. 

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We will need to wait to see what if any impacts come from Typhoon Hagibis, but right now it is a beast of a storm. It is expected to pass to the east of Japan and get captured in the jetstream to the north. Once that happens it makes a beeline for Alaska/Canada where it will possibly become a major weather maker for the US.

 

Other than the chance for rain today, this work week will remain a quiet weather week with not much to talk about in our neck of the woods. So I hope everyone has a great Monday, and I'll keep you updated on the possible rain for today/tonight.

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The trough is still favoring the West and although much weaker that Bermuda Ridge is still lurking! It has been this way for the last year with the exception of November last year and to a lesser extent March of this year! The trend is your friend! NOT!!!

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2 hours ago, Rusty said:

The trough is still favoring the West and although much weaker that Bermuda Ridge is still lurking! It has been this way for the last year with the exception of November last year and to a lesser extent March of this year! The trend is your friend! NOT!!!

The ridge doesn't suddenly go away, but it's effects are fading quickly. Any warm ups we have now are not because of the SE ridge, but just the normal warm ups between fronts. The heat ridge is no longer a factor, the regime has changed. 

This may be the evolution as we move forward. The real kicker may be Hagibis. Just like Lorenzo kicked the stalled pattern in to motion, Hagibis is going to do the same thing. The difference with Hagibis is that it may also amplify the pattern and create a +PNA scenario. cfs-daily-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-1570428000-1570924800-1574294400-40.thumb.gif.b0196a5f0976dc88fc802d1e08e9fb92.gif 

Quote

The positive phase of the PNA pattern features above-average barometric pressure heights in the vicinity of Hawaii and over the inter-mountain region of North America, and below-average heights located south of the Aleutian Islands and over the southeastern United States. The PNA pattern is associated with strong fluctuations in the strength and location of the East Asian jet stream. The positive phase is associated with an enhanced East Asian jet stream and with an eastward shift in the jet exit region toward the western United States. The negative phase is associated with a westward retraction of that jet stream toward eastern Asia, blocking activity over the high latitudes of the North pacific, and a strong split-flow configuration over the central North Pacific.

The positive phase of the PNA pattern is associated with above-average temperatures over western Canada and the extreme western United States, and below-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern US.

 

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34 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

If this happens we have the absolute worst luck... 

 

 

I'm going the other way. 

 

 

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