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Saturday, October 12

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Good morning!

Can't wait for the rain!  But... don't look for any today. While the NW corner "may" see a stray shower, for the most part, the frontal passage will be dry.


All precipitation is behind the front in the
cool layer over portions of Central Tennessee. While temperatures
in Tennessee have fallen into the upper 40s, still warm across
Georgia with lower 70s still residing over NW portions given
extensive cloud cover.

Front to move into the area through today and be roughly along the
I-85 corridor by early afternoon. Deep layer moisture will be most
prevalent over NW corner where precipitable water will reside around
1.60 inches. This combined with convergence along the front may be
enough to squeeze out some low end chance pops, but even this looks
iffy given lack of upper level forcing. What pops are there will
certainly dissipate as front slides south through the Atlanta metro.
Will keep forecast pops free for this area and points southward
through this evening.



Here's a look at the southeast around 5:30 am. You can see roughly where the front lies based on the amount of water vapor in the air.  Notice the much cooler temperatures back to our west and northwest. 



As you can see from the discussion, the rain will begin in earnest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. But the heaviest rain will be Tuesday into Tuesday night.


Front stalls across the area through tonight awaiting some short
wave energy from the west to arrive. This energy will be enough to
increase pops along the front Sat night into Sun morning with mid to
high end chance range for most of North GA
. By late Sun afternoon
into the evening, precipitable water will have increased to 1.90
inches over portions of Central Ga. However, the highest rain
chances will remain over North GA where isentropic processes are
optimized resulting and a narrow strip of likely pops advertised.
In this likely zone, have also added slight chance thunder given
developing elevated CAPE values.

Baroclinic zone expected to push south well into middle Georgia
Monday based on 00Z guidance. However as front lifts slowly north
and upper wave approaches, round of the most substantial and
widespread rainfall we've seen in months on track to affect most
of north and central Georgia on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
guidance in pretty good agreement on timing and locations,
amounts over 1.5 inches still expected to all but far southern
counties. Concerned that amounts could continue to trend slowly
higher as mid and high level moisture from forecast eastern
Pacific tropical cyclone could play a role in transporting
well above average moisture.
Fortunately, instability quite
limited with this second wave. Have included slight chance for
thunder but do not expect any strong or severe convection.


Expected rainfall amounts



The other good news is that temperatures will actually drop to the below normal range for a change. It's pick on Blairsville day. It the longer range, MUCH cooler temps are in store for our area, but we'll look at that once we get closer in time.



Here's a look at the US this morning. Two features stand out, the large upper level low over the north central US, and the low off of the New England coast.  Notice the very cold temps out in the western US as well. Snap346062763.thumb.jpg.4f1fc91c6eaf26a7a4cb60fdd3356d5e.jpg


So we just sit and wait for the front to move in. It should be a great day for football though, so get out and enjoy the weather and the fresh air!6 Here's a picture I took this morning of the moon over Sarasota Bay. It is much better in person!



Have a great Saturday!


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Huntsville NWS


A surface high will settle into the region in the wake of this
system, reestablishing a cool and dry air mass for Wednesday and
Thursday. Despite plenty of sunshine, expect temperatures to run
below seasonable norms, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s both
days. With good radiational cooling Wednesday night, temperatures
could fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by early Thursday morning.
Thus, it's possible we could see our first frost of the autumn
season in some locations, especially across sheltered valleys in
Southern Middle Tennessee and Northeast Alabama.


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