NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 13 Good Sunday morning! First, let's start with today. Quote Main concern in the short term period is rainfall chances and timing. Baroclinic zone still lying across the state with no well defined shortwave or other feature to key in timing of precip. Will likely see rounds of light precip along frontal zone today and tonight as it sags slowly south into Middle Georgia. Lift expected to weaken Monday in advance of stronger wave progged to move in Tuesday so should be mostly dry. Surface-based instability not expected but just enough elevated instability to include mention of slight chance thunder. No impacts expected. Here's the current radar And the current temps. Notice the 30's in TN. Congrats to those that are seeing rain! 🙂 Pretty much everyone is going to see it. But as we look out toward Monday night and beyond, we have this. Quote Long term portion begins with high pressure settling over the Ohio valley and into the mid Atlantic through Mon night. This cool dome will set the stage for a more significant isentropic upglide event as south and southwest flow develops just off the surface. In addition, will have the added influence of embedded shortwave activity in westerly flow aloft. These factors combined with the fact that precipitable water values will increase to over 2 inches will allow for our most widespread moderate rainfall event in quite some time. For whatever reason, long term guidance not picking up on potential initially Monday night and have gone a considerable amount above at 60 percent for SW zones. By Tue afternoon, isentropic forces will be on full display and yielding categorical pops for a large portion of North and Central GA. You could make a case for some embedded thunder at this point but will leave out for now given meager elevated CAPE values. Did however add to the Tue night time period as we get a little more dynamics in place with the arrival of stronger short wave energy. Axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted slightly from previous rains to the south but still on the the order of 3 to 4 inches. You can see in the WPC map how the rain axis has shifted south a hair, and you can see that in the comparison of the last two WPC precip forecast, the newest on the left. This is Saturday, the oldest on the right And this is the latest two runs AFTER the above image. Newest on the left. Regardless, most everyone that lives in north georgia should see some rain, but it may be heavier to our south. Looking around the country, a large upper level low is still holding on over the north central part of the country, and cold air is wrapping around the low and making it as far south as Tennessee, but not so much here in Georgia. Notice those cold temps out west. Once we get to the middle of the week, we'll get to experience some of the cold weather here in Georgia. Quote Frontal boundary to move through Wednesday and high pressure to build in its wake. This will usher in the coldest air of the fall season with some upper 30s making an appearance over portions of NE GA. Lower to mid 40s will be present all the way into portions of Central GA. High will remain in control through weeks end but then shift offshore over the weekend with additional low end rain chances emerging. The main thing is that everyone needs to enjoy the rain. It's desperately needed and will help to reduce the potential for wildfires. Monday looks to be fairly dry, but that still leaves 3 days of rainfall for us. I guess I'll get to see some rain today as we drive back home from Sarasota. They have had a lot of rain here, but while we were here, nada. Of course. I must travel with a rain shield. 😉 I hope everyone has a great Sunday! Enjoy the clouds, showers, and cooler temps! I'll be there to join you tonight! 🙂 Full Moon in October without frost, no frost 'til the full Moon in November.–Proverb 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 13 That's about 226 mph Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dyan 68 Posted October 13 2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said: Good Sunday morning! First, let's start with today. Here's the current radar And the current temps. Notice the 30's in TN. Congrats to those that are seeing rain! 🙂 Pretty much everyone is going to see it. But as we look out toward Monday night and beyond, we have this. You can see in the WPC map how the rain axis has shifted south a hair, and you can see that in the comparison of the last two WPC precip forecast, the newest on the left. This is Saturday, the oldest on the right And this is the latest two runs AFTER the above image. Newest on the left. Regardless, most everyone that lives in north georgia should see some rain, but it may be heavier to our south. Looking around the country, a large upper level low is still holding on over the north central part of the country, and cold air is wrapping around the low and making it as far south as Tennessee, but not so much here in Georgia. Notice those cold temps out west. Once we get to the middle of the week, we'll get to experience some of the cold weather here in Georgia. The main thing is that everyone needs to enjoy the rain. It's desperately needed and will help to reduce the potential for wildfires. Monday looks to be fairly dry, but that still leaves 3 days of rainfall for us. I guess I'll get to see some rain today as we drive back home from Sarasota. They have had a lot of rain here, but while we were here, nada. Of course. I must travel with a rain shield. 😉 I hope everyone has a great Sunday! Enjoy the clouds, showers, and cooler temps! I'll be there to join you tonight! 🙂 Full Moon in October without frost, no frost 'til the full Moon in November.–Proverb Safe travels!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingOfTheMountains 735 Posted October 13 . 84 inches here this morning! More rain than we've had in the last 30 days. Looking forward to more this week. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 14 18 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said: . 84 inches here this morning! More rain than we've had in the last 30 days. Looking forward to more this week. We got back home about 7:30 last night and it was raining. 🙂 Couldn't have felt nicer. i'm down to 51.3º this morning, and will maybe drop another degree before it starts back up. I would love to hit 49.9 though. 🙂 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites