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NorthGeorgiaWX

Sunday, October 13

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Good Sunday morning! 

First, let's start with today.

Quote

Main concern in the short term period is rainfall chances and
timing. Baroclinic zone still lying across the state with no well
defined shortwave or other feature to key in timing of precip. Will
likely see rounds of light precip along frontal zone today and
tonight as it sags slowly south into Middle Georgia. Lift expected
to weaken Monday in advance of stronger wave progged to move in
Tuesday so should be mostly dry. Surface-based instability not
expected but just enough elevated instability to include mention of
slight chance thunder. No impacts expected.

 

Here's the current radar

2037379840_GR2A-20191013-KFFC_0944_BR_0.5-0944.thumb.png.8fc1138d9f22e6469f6f56f2dcb63ebc.png

 

And the current temps. Notice the 30's in TN.

Snap346062773.thumb.jpg.d08df504130fc7753d504718d6f6a6c4.jpg

Congrats to those that are seeing rain! 🙂 Pretty much everyone is going to see it. 

But as we look out toward Monday night and beyond, we have this.

Quote

Long term portion begins with high pressure settling over the Ohio
valley and into the mid Atlantic through Mon night. This cool dome
will set the stage for a more significant isentropic upglide event
as south and southwest flow develops just off the surface. In
addition, will have the added influence of embedded shortwave
activity in westerly flow aloft. These factors combined with the
fact that precipitable water values will increase to over 2 inches
will allow for our most widespread moderate rainfall event in
quite some time. For whatever reason, long term guidance not
picking up on potential initially Monday night and have gone a
considerable amount above at 60 percent for SW zones.

By Tue afternoon, isentropic forces will be on full display and
yielding categorical pops for a large portion of North and
Central GA. You could make a case for some embedded thunder at
this point but will leave out for now given meager elevated CAPE
values. Did however add to the Tue night time period as we get a
little more dynamics in place with the arrival of stronger short
wave energy. Axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted slightly from
previous rains to the south but still on the the order of 3 to 4
inches.

 

You can see in the WPC map how the rain axis has shifted south a hair, and you can see that in the comparison of the last two WPC precip forecast, the newest on the left.

This is Saturday, the oldest on the right

Snap346062772.thumb.jpg.07eba0e1aec5cf9ed9459581c6f9c2ad.jpg

 

And this is the latest two runs AFTER the above image. Newest on the left.

Snap346062774.thumb.jpg.d88f8f0f897a8e34e51710ab8b5ea4ad.jpg

 

Regardless, most everyone that lives in north georgia should see some rain, but it may be heavier to our south. 

Looking around the country, a large upper level low is still holding on over the north central part of the country, and cold air is wrapping around the low and making it as far south as Tennessee, but not so much here in Georgia. Notice those cold temps out west.

Snap346062775.thumb.jpg.cf59288782c4dcdce348a4fbf1773ad5.jpg

 

Once we get to the middle of the week, we'll get to experience some of the cold weather here in Georgia.

Quote

Frontal boundary to move through Wednesday and high pressure to
build in its wake. This will usher in the coldest air of the fall
season with some upper 30s making an appearance over portions of
NE GA. Lower to mid 40s will be present all the way into portions
of Central GA
. High will remain in control through weeks end but
then shift offshore over the weekend with additional low end rain
chances emerging.

 

The main thing is that everyone needs to enjoy the rain. It's desperately needed and will help to reduce the potential for wildfires. Monday looks to be fairly dry, but that still leaves 3 days of rainfall for us.

I guess I'll get to see some rain today as we drive back home from Sarasota. They have had a lot of rain here, but while we were here, nada. Of course. I must travel with a rain shield. 😉 

I hope everyone has a great Sunday! Enjoy the clouds, showers, and cooler temps! I'll be there to join you tonight! 🙂

Full Moon in October without frost, no frost 'til the full Moon in November.
–Proverb 

forecast-13.jpg.d9ea5db05e434fe88b03b366a2af5984.jpg

 

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2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good Sunday morning! 

First, let's start with today.

 

Here's the current radar

2037379840_GR2A-20191013-KFFC_0944_BR_0.5-0944.thumb.png.8fc1138d9f22e6469f6f56f2dcb63ebc.png

 

And the current temps. Notice the 30's in TN.

Snap346062773.thumb.jpg.d08df504130fc7753d504718d6f6a6c4.jpg

Congrats to those that are seeing rain! 🙂 Pretty much everyone is going to see it. 

But as we look out toward Monday night and beyond, we have this.

 

You can see in the WPC map how the rain axis has shifted south a hair, and you can see that in the comparison of the last two WPC precip forecast, the newest on the left.

This is Saturday, the oldest on the right

Snap346062772.thumb.jpg.07eba0e1aec5cf9ed9459581c6f9c2ad.jpg

 

And this is the latest two runs AFTER the above image. Newest on the left.

Snap346062774.thumb.jpg.d88f8f0f897a8e34e51710ab8b5ea4ad.jpg

 

Regardless, most everyone that lives in north georgia should see some rain, but it may be heavier to our south. 

Looking around the country, a large upper level low is still holding on over the north central part of the country, and cold air is wrapping around the low and making it as far south as Tennessee, but not so much here in Georgia. Notice those cold temps out west.

Snap346062775.thumb.jpg.cf59288782c4dcdce348a4fbf1773ad5.jpg

 

Once we get to the middle of the week, we'll get to experience some of the cold weather here in Georgia.

 

The main thing is that everyone needs to enjoy the rain. It's desperately needed and will help to reduce the potential for wildfires. Monday looks to be fairly dry, but that still leaves 3 days of rainfall for us.

I guess I'll get to see some rain today as we drive back home from Sarasota. They have had a lot of rain here, but while we were here, nada. Of course. I must travel with a rain shield. 😉 

I hope everyone has a great Sunday! Enjoy the clouds, showers, and cooler temps! I'll be there to join you tonight! 🙂

Full Moon in October without frost, no frost 'til the full Moon in November.
–Proverb 

forecast-13.jpg.d9ea5db05e434fe88b03b366a2af5984.jpg

 

Safe travels!!

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18 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

. 84 inches here this morning! More rain than we've had in the last 30 days. Looking forward to more this week. 

We got back home about 7:30 last night and it was raining. 🙂 Couldn't have felt nicer. 

i'm down to 51.3º this morning, and will maybe drop another degree before it starts back up. I would love to hit 49.9 though. 🙂

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