Tuesday, October 15

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

Good morning!

I've already had a little shower this morning here in Gwinnett, but the bulk of the rain is to our south right now, and the heaviest axis of rainfall will remain across central Georgia today. That doesn't rule out any rain across north Georgia, but the amounts will not be as heavy as it will be further south.

 

Here are the thoughts from the NWS:

Quote

A more active forecast is on tap in the short term as much-needed
rainfall will be on the increase today into tonight, especially for
central Georgia. Showers are already increasing this morning across
south-central Georgia in the vicinity of the lingering stationary
boundary as mid-level energy progresses eastward. This surface
boundary will be the continued focus for the axis of most
significant rainfall today and tonight as shortwave energy
transitions through the Southeast.

The surface front will make only limited progress northward today
and remain relegated somewhere near or just south of the southern
border of the CWA. Based on this limited northward progress, better
instability will thus remain largely south of the area as reflected
by the placement of the Day 1 Marginal severe risk area issued by
the Storm Prediction Center. With that being said, with the front in
the vicinity, a strong thunderstorm or two with gusty winds cannot
be entirely ruled out in the far southern fringes of the forecast
area this afternoon and evening, particularly if the front makes
slightly more northward progress. Beneficial rainfall totals are
forecast today into tonight in central Georgia with an axis of 1-2+"
rainfall totals expected, especially along and south of a LaGrange
to Forsyth to Louisville line. Totals will gradually taper to the
north, with areas along and north of the I-20 corridor likely to see
lesser sub-1" totals through Wednesday.

By tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will be quickly approaching
the state from the northwest and sweep into the area through the
day. Precipitation will then rapidly come to an end from northwest
to southeast through the day with clearing skies in north Georgia by
Wednesday evening. Breezy northwest winds will then begin to usher
in much cooler temperatures heading into Wednesday night.

Showers will increase from south to north becoming more widespread
at CSG/MCN by 12z (8am) and spreading towards ATL/AHN by 15-18z (11am-2pm)

 

WPC rainfall amounts through 8 pm Tuesday

 

If you don't get any/much rain today, do not despair. Here are the WPC forecast amounts through 8 am next Tuesday, this includes the amounts you see in the image above.

WPC Rainfall through 8 am Tuesday

 

Temps today will look like this. Notice that central Georgia is a little cooler than north Georgia. Don't be jealous... they need some cool too!

National Digital Forecast Database Temperatures for Today

 

Here comes the cooler air.

Quote

The long term portion will begin with a front sweeping through and
high pressure building in Wednesday night bringing some of the coldest
temps so far for this young fall season. By Thursday morning, we will
see some upper 30's across the NE mountains and widespread lower to
mid 40's all the way into Central sections of the forecast area.
Latest guidance continues the cooler temperatures on Thursday
afternoon as well with highs likely not getting out of the 60s for
the Atlanta metro. Pretty much a carbon copy for the Thursday night
with upper 30's into the 40's expected once again.

 

There will be a slight warm up over the weekend as Gulf moisture returns to the area, but the models are showing another cool down next week with even colder temperatures. 

Here's a look at the 850mb pressures as well as water vapor this morning. Notice several mid-level lows that will act as "kickers" for some of the systems that are just lazing around. Is that a word? 

 

Mr. Cranky sees them too.

 

So even if you don't see much rain today, at least enjoy the clouds and comfortable temps. I know everyone needs rain and I feel your pain (like that rhyme? 🙂 ) but let's keep the bigger picture in mind before complaining. Central Georgia is in desperate need of rain like we are, so be thankful for their blessings. 🙂

The only thing I wish we could have are clouds when the colder air moves in just to keep the daytime highs lower, but I will certainly not complain about whatever we get.  

I hope everyone has a great Tuesday!

Of autumn’s wine, now drink your fill;
The frost’s on the pumpkin, and snow’s on the hill.
–The Old Farmer’s Almanac, 1993

68 Days until Winter

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

Here's a little information from the Bismarck North Dakota NWS about the blizzard the the north central US just went through.

Quote

On Wednesday, October 9th, 2019, a large upper level trough began digging across Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado as a strong surface cold front moved across the Dakotas. Although precipitation started off as rain for most areas as this cold front moved through, it did not take long for precipitation to change over to all snow as temperatures rapidly dropped to below freezing. By Thursday morning, a very large Colorado low developed downwind of the Rockies and began moving northeast into the Northern Plains region. Unfortunately, the low stalled out over far northwest Minnesota Thursday night. This appears to be due to a downstream ridge that was located over the northeast United States, which blocked the upper level flow and prevented the low from moving out of the region. This downstream ridge helped keep the low stalled out over the same area through Saturday night, which resulted in a very long duration of accumulating snowfall and high winds across central and eastern North Dakota from Thursday through Saturday. Blizzard conditions developed across portions of central North Dakota and most of eastern North Dakota on Friday and Saturday as winds increased, gusting over 60 mph at times.

This record-breaking October blizzard certainly left its mark by the time the storm system finally began moving out of the region on Sunday. Storm total snowfall amounts as high as 30 inches were observed near Harvey, North Dakota with drifts over 5 feet tall. Widespread amounts between 1 and 2 feet were observed across nearly all of central and eastern North Dakota. Travel became impossible across much of the area, as the interstate and other local highways began to shut down. Some tree damage was also observed across portions of eastern North Dakota, as trees across the area had yet to drop all of their leaves and could not bear the weight of the heavy wet snow. The timing of this blizzard could not have been any worse for the agricultural community, which desperately needed a prolonged period of warm and dry weather for a harvest that was already delayed due to a record wet September.

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

But they are no stranger to blizzards, even in October

October 15, 1880
A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

[RickyD 478]

We are in the blessed area THIS time. Steady rain since sometime late last night.  Come snow time I am sure many times I will be awatching from afar.  
like you mentioned we desperately needed it.  
 

Glad to have you home

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

1 hour ago, RickyD said:

We are in the blessed area THIS time. Steady rain since sometime late last night.  Come snow time I am sure many times I will be awatching from afar.  
like you mentioned we desperately needed it.  
 

Glad to have you home

Thank you sir! Glad you're getting the much needed rain! That's awesome! 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

 

[RickyD 478]

I was looking at the last? GFS run and it hinted at the 1st measurable snow for the Appalachians.  Smokies might turn white?

[KingOfTheMountains 1,122]

2 hours ago, RickyD said:

I was looking at the last? GFS run and it hinted at the 1st measurable snow for the Appalachians.  Smokies might turn white?

Late October/early November seems about right for the first NW flow flakes. Need those big powerful cold fronts to produce them and that's about when we first start seeing them. 

[RickyD 478]

Also just had a thought.  Steve maybe you can show us some data.   With the Neaster what will it be like on Mt Washington 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

Mt. Washington high summit forecast

Quote

There will be two low pressure systems building towards New England one located north of the Great Lakes and the other off the coast of the Carolinas. As the systems build closer throughout the day Wednesday, winds will shift to the east and begin to increase. Wednesday evening the low in the great lakes region will transfer its energy to the coastal low as it is off the coast of New Jersey. This will result in rapid intensification of the low as it builds into southern New England. Winds will continue to increase and shift to the east reaching hurricane force and low level moisture will increase putting the summit in the clouds Wednesday evening. As the low makes landfall in southern New England it associated strong low level jet streak will push from north to south into New Hampshire along a band of heavy precipitation. Winds will continue to increase reaching the century mark with a chance of gusts well above 100 mph early Thursday morning. Precipitation will fall as snow initially on the summit but as easterly winds pump in warmer air precipitation will change to rain before day break Thursday. Rain will become less persistent during the day as the center of the low passes over the region, resulting in much weaker winds Thursday afternoon. Once the low pass the region and continues to build northeast, winds will shift to the north and will begin to pump in cold air on the backside of the system. Temperatures will drop back below freeing changing precipitation back to a wintry mix and eventually snow to end the forecast period.

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

6 hours ago, RickyD said:

I was looking at the last? GFS run and it hinted at the 1st measurable snow for the Appalachians.  Smokies might turn white?

Late in the period, the GFS operational has some snow for the southern Appalachians but the ensemble shows nothing, yet the Euro control shows nothing but it's ensembles show a little. Just a little too far out for the Euro operational.

We're getting close to that time of the year! 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

I like WB's post

Quote

In any case, at least the 2 weeks starting oct 25 look plenty cold over the east and plains. whether we can go for 4 weeks or if that is the start of winter are questions that are tough to answer, but we have held this was going to try to show up and be a "false flag" with the real winter coming after a warmer period One thing I will say, modeling is having a devil of a time which should make it more fun for all of us that like mayhem in All States in the US

[NorthGeorgiaWX 4,966]

The NE may have some hurricane force wind gust.