Jump to content
  • Forum Image
NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday, October 15

Recommended Posts

Good morning! 🙂 

Light showers are scattered across the area this morning, but things will be quickly changing as the day goes on.

2133422325_GR2A-20191016-KFFC_0925_BR_0.5-0925.thumb.png.6e87d81f3e01953b7ee57f80f5966f6a.png

 

NWS Atlanta

Quote

Low clouds and widespread showers continue across the area early
this morning. This activity is associated with shortwave energy
aloft ahead of an approaching longwave trough while at the surface a
developing weak surface low is transitioning eastward along a warm
front draped across south central Georgia. Big changes are on the
way, however, as a strong cold front currently situated through
middle Tennessee and entering NW Alabama is making rapid progress
toward Georgia.

This strong cold front will enter northwest Georgia by mid-morning
and quickly move southeastward across the CWA through the afternoon
hours. Current showers and cloudy skies will quickly clear from
northwest to southeast behind the cold front, and breezy northwest
winds will usher in much cooler and drier air. This will set the
stage for the coldest temperatures of the season thus far Thursday
morning under clear skies. Low temperatures in the 40s can be
expected areawide with a number of locales in the north Georgia
mountains likely sneaking into the upper 30s.

Surface high pressure will continue building into the area on
Thursday, bringing sunny skies and cool conditions. High
temperatures Thursday will run several degrees below normal and
range from the 60s in north Georgia to the low-to-mid 70s in central
Georgia.

 

While the cold air is welcomed, a good dousing of rain would be even better at this point. 

Quote

Uncertainty beginning to show up in the extended portion of the
forecast.

High pressure overhead will begin shifting eastward on Friday. The
high center is expected to move offshore the Mid Atlantic coast by
early Saturday. Meanwhile, the tropical system currently located
near the Bay of Campeche is forecast to move northward into the
Western Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. The longer range
models begin to diverge a bit on Saturday with timing and placement
of the tropical system near the Gulf Coast
, so will keep the
forecast a bit generic into the weekend.

A cold front is expected to move through during the early part of
next week, clearing out any lingering deep/tropical moisture. High
pressure builds in for the middle part of the week.

Interested parties should keep weather aware and stayed tuned to the
latest advisories/announcements from NHC regarding the western Gulf
tropical system.

 

 

The thoughts from the NHC

Quote

A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico and the Bay
of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today and move slowly northward.  Gradual development is possible,
and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over
the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Snap346062811.jpg.dabcb1c5d90b66db8a2f9411cf094ba0.jpg

 

And more thoughts from the Weather Prediction Center.

Quote

As the central U.S. trough amplifies this weekend into early next week,
moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico will increase
. A frontal
boundary and wave of low pressure are expected to focus
potentially heavy rainfall along the immediate Gulf Coast and
perhaps into portions of the Southeast this weekend, before deeper
moisture and widespread showers/thunderstorms spread northward
into the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys ahead of the
deepening central U.S. low pressure system early next week.

hazards_d3_7_contours191015.thumb.png.31a08b59045d96933ec6b1935bd17e86.thumb.png.5c20a87d2ac5d3a4952ca9df863903ca.png

 

The uncertainty lies in the potential track of the tropical system. Both major models depict a tropical system but placement of the track is the big question. The GFS and Euro ensembles still show 2-3" of rain for north Georgia, and the ensembles are the models to watch right now, especially with the great uncertainty in the final outcome. I'll show you the WPC rainfall outlook through Wednesday 8 am.

wpc-georgia-total_precip_inch-1832000.thumb.png.f485355b092ab7e9c360538bb32f33e8.png

 

So first things first, we'll be watching the cold front as it slides through the state today. These are the expected low temperatures in the morning from the National Digital Forecast Database. The NDFD maps are the actual NWS forecast temps.

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f-1313600.thumb.png.36f6814cf59429f1db037b26434e2afd.png

 

Let's watch and see how it all transpires. We are in a VERY active and chaotic pattern right now and the models are struggling as they so often do when the patterns are rapidly evolving. There are signs that these last couple of weeks of October may be cold. 🙂 
23938bd56ffa302458768cd8e597d8f6.jpg.92882578d169ad518041b67e03b5d66c.jpg

 

Hope everyone has a great Wednesday! 🙂 

Bright yellow, red and orange,
The leaves come down in hosts;
The trees are Indian princes,
But soon they'll turn to ghosts.

–William Allingham (1824–89)

Winter begins in 67  days

forecast-16.jpg.b880e0f561988e8058b13a1cf07e4ad9.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love watching the conditions on Mt. Washington. Notice on Thursday, the steady winds, not gust, are 100-125 mph 

Quote

The summits will stay in the clear today but the skies will become increasingly cloudy. Winds will be out of the south today and then shift to the southeast late today into the evening hours. Early Wednesday evening, the summits will go into the clouds with snow beginning several hours later. Winds will start to rapidly increase around midnight and into the overnight hours eventually becoming easterly. Winds will be sustained around the century mark and gusting around 140 by early Thursday morning. Snow will persist throughout the night and possibly switch over to a winter mix as the summits becomes aligned with the onshore flow off and the main moisture injection stream of the now merged system. Temperatures are cold enough to support only snow however, heat energy from the extreme uplift of the warmer and moist ocean air may overcome the cold temps for a short while. Early Thursday morning should be the most extreme with gusts topping out around 150 mph. 

Snap346062813.jpg.5fd72d7f0c71753770b2d572444fbffa.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe one of these days I can make the trip up there. I will be honest. I despise the big city N E. From DC on to Boston.   If it were possible for a country boy on a short income to reach the coastal areas and mountains Star Trek style I would make the plunge.  I am not interested in the many historical sites just because of the hassle of big city traffic and problems.  I am a backwards fellow in a 2019/2020 world

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Maybe one of these days I can make the trip up there. I will be honest. I despise the big city N E. From DC on to Boston.   If it were possible for a country boy on a short income to reach the coastal areas and mountains Star Trek style I would make the plunge.  I am not interested in the many historical sites just because of the hassle of big city traffic and problems.  I am a backwards fellow in a 2019/2020 world

For the most part, we stayed away from the big cities, and I hear you. We did go to Boston and took one of the walking tours... you HAVE to do that, the architecture and history is simple amazing. But other than that, we tried to avoid the big cities. We stayed one night in Baltimore which I would never do again, and we went out of the way to bypass Philly and New York. 

Once you get past New York... that's when the real beauty starts. We followed the coast east toward Mass. and stayed at Hyannis for 6 nights. From there we took the ferries to Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard and went on our whale watch tour from Barnstable. We also spent a day traveling up to the tip of Cape Cod to Provincetown.

From there, we continued north through Boston and then got on the back roads to travel along the coast. Get off of the main roads.  We stopped at various lighthouses and other places to see and made it to Kennebunk( right next to Kennebunkport) where we spent the night. The next day we continued along the coast as we made our way to Bar Harbor Maine. I would recommend spending more time along the Maine coastline, it is stunning. When we go back (and we ARE going back), we want to spend more time exploring. Of course you have to go to Acadia National Park while you're there. After leaving Bar Harbor we headed toward the Cog Railway ride to the top of Mt. Washington. I would do that again in a heartbeat. What we didn't do was explore NH and VT as much as we would have liked, but we'll do that in the fall possibly next year. 

The history, the architecture, and the scenery is astounding.  You feel like you went back in time to another age. I could spend several more weeks exploring and still not have enough. 

I hear what you are saying, I don't like the big cities either and except for one day in Boston, we didn't even go to any. 

Here are some pictures we took on the walking tour in Boston. 

https://photos.app.goo.gl/MFUqzPWx1vnaHmLEA

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 There were only three of us on the walking tour, me, my wife, and the lady with the dark hair you see in the pictures. The guide had lived there all of his life and knew this stuff like the back of his hand. I wish I had recorded everything he had to say about the buildings, because the pictures are only a small piece of the story.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If anyone would like to see our itinerary and routes, I can show you that in case you'd like to do something similar. I have ticket prices and the whole works including a spreadsheet with all of the cost. Yes... I'm a little to detailed oriented but it payed off.  I tried to plan everything out in advance and for the most part, everything went as planned. It was the best (and I think only) two week trip I've ever taken. We've done lots of 1 week trips but nothing on this scale. The drive was more than 3000 miles but I'd do it again in a heartbeat. The only change in the route up would be to try to bypass DC and Baltimore and that's not hard to do, it's just some extra miles. Those miles are scenic though so it's an enjoyable ride. We did bypass both of those on the way back.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, RickyD said:

That would be Nestor?  

If that is the next name in line... I never know until it's named. 🙂 I haven't bothered to look at the names in a long time, I figure I'll find out when a system has a name. 🙂

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Not a great track for meaningful rainfall for NE Georgia!

It could be better... but beggars can't be choosers. And... as you saw with this last rainfall, things can and will change for better or worse. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

For the most part, we stayed away from the big cities, and I hear you. We did go to Boston and took one of the walking tours... you HAVE to do that, the architecture and history is simple amazing. But other than that, we tried to avoid the big cities. We stayed one night in Baltimore which I would never do again, and we went out of the way to bypass Philly and New York. 

 

Ha, that place I recommended in Baltimore was the nicest and safest place to stay in the city.  I lived there for nine years - it's an acquired taste and not for everyone.

I'm originally a New England country boy (yes, we exist - for real); I can tolerate and enjoy Boston for a while, but NYC is beyond the pale.  Having lived here for a  number of years, I can't imagine what it must be like to be from down this way and go visit up there.  My family and I have gotten accustomed to southern manners and sensibilities very quickly, and anytime we travel up north, its a matter of minutes before witnessing some event that has us shaking our heads and muttering that we aren't in Georgia anymore.  My kids, who have grown up here, can't make sense of any of it.

I digress.  There is plenty of natural beauty up there that is worth experiencing and with a few adjustments, itineraries that will work for you.  First, if you're going to fly, fly into Manchester NH.  There are direct flights from ATL.  They will be a little less frequent and more expensive than flying into Boston, BUT, car rentals are stupidly expensive in Boston.  Ridiculous.  When you factor in flight + car, MHT is less expensive and light years easier than doing anything in or near Logan.  You will also be through MHT security in minutes, out of the airport in minutes, whereas Logan's security is frequently well over an hour long, the rentals involve a shuttle, etc.  Stay out of Logan!  There is nothing that makes a Bostonian happier than telling someone from out of town 'you can't get theah from heah' or some variant of the same sentiment.

You could spend a lifetime visiting small New England country towns.  The Maine coast is remote, rugged, and staggeringly beautiful.  In NH, North Conway and Mount Washington, Portsmouth, Jackson, Keene / Dartmouth, and if you don't mind a long drive, the first Connecticut Lakes up at the border are incredible.

In Vermont, any of the ski resort towns will be fun, even in summer, with Stowe probably being the best (although Killington or Mount Snow will have the most off-season stuff - stay away from Okemo and Stratton as it they will be filled with largely abhorrent humans).  Burlington is a nice little city worth at least a day ... but it has a lot of ... how to phrase this?  Patchouli-burning barefoot "interesting people" selling cheese sandwiches out of the backs of ancient Datsuns to fund summers following Phish around the country.  Nice town, don't stay too long.  

If you like history, travel south of town and visit the Shellburne Museum.  My great grandfather grew up in the actual settlers' cabin they have on display there (although they altered it in ways that are not historically accurate; my dad got upset and refuses to go there).  Staying anywhere on the Vermont side of The Lake will be lovely.  You're also not too far from Montreal, which is always worth a visit (and if you go, make sure you eat poutine and enjoy an Equinox du Printemps beer from Fin Du Monde).  Quebec or Atlantic Canada are entire itineraries themselves - Montreal, Quebec City, and the Gaspe Peninsula will make your jaw drop to a point where it may never return.  Ditto Atlantic Canada, on the eleven days a year when it's not socked in with fog.  

South of the Mass Pike, New England changes considerably; Newport RI is worth visiting.  The islands - Block, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket are all worth visiting.  Those aside, stay in northern New England.  

Nice visiting... but after our years here, we do so very much love coming home.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

Ha, that place I recommended in Baltimore was the nicest and safest place to stay in the city.  I lived there for nine years - it's an acquired taste and not for everyone.

I'm originally a New England country boy (yes, we exist - for real); I can tolerate and enjoy Boston for a while, but NYC is beyond the pale.  Having lived here for a  number of years, I can't imagine what it must be like to be from down this way and go visit up there.  My family and I have gotten accustomed to southern manners and sensibilities very quickly, and anytime we travel up north, its a matter of minutes before witnessing some event that has us shaking our heads and muttering that we aren't in Georgia anymore.  My kids, who have grown up here, can't make sense of any of it.

I digress.  There is plenty of natural beauty up there that is worth experiencing and with a few adjustments, itineraries that will work for you.  First, if you're going to fly, fly into Manchester NH.  There are direct flights from ATL.  They will be a little less frequent and more expensive than flying into Boston, BUT, car rentals are stupidly expensive in Boston.  Ridiculous.  When you factor in flight + car, MHT is less expensive and light years easier than doing anything in or near Logan.  You will also be through MHT security in minutes, out of the airport in minutes, whereas Logan's security is frequently well over an hour long, the rentals involve a shuttle, etc.  Stay out of Logan!  There is nothing that makes a Bostonian happier than telling someone from out of town 'you can't get theah from heah' or some variant of the same sentiment.

You could spend a lifetime visiting small New England country towns.  The Maine coast is remote, rugged, and staggeringly beautiful.  In NH, North Conway and Mount Washington, Portsmouth, Jackson, Keene / Dartmouth, and if you don't mind a long drive, the first Connecticut Lakes up at the border are incredible.

In Vermont, any of the ski resort towns will be fun, even in summer, with Stowe probably being the best (although Killington or Mount Snow will have the most off-season stuff - stay away from Okemo and Stratton as it they will be filled with largely abhorrent humans).  Burlington is a nice little city worth at least a day ... but it has a lot of ... how to phrase this?  Patchouli-burning barefoot "interesting people" selling cheese sandwiches out of the backs of ancient Datsuns to fund summers following Phish around the country.  Nice town, don't stay too long.  

If you like history, travel south of town and visit the Shellburne Museum.  My great grandfather grew up in the actual settlers' cabin they have on display there (although they altered it in ways that are not historically accurate; my dad got upset and refuses to go there).  Staying anywhere on the Vermont side of The Lake will be lovely.  You're also not too far from Montreal, which is always worth a visit (and if you go, make sure you eat poutine and enjoy an Equinox du Printemps beer from Fin Du Monde).  Quebec or Atlantic Canada are entire itineraries themselves - Montreal, Quebec City, and the Gaspe Peninsula will make your jaw drop to a point where it may never return.  Ditto Atlantic Canada, on the eleven days a year when it's not socked in with fog.  

South of the Mass Pike, New England changes considerably; Newport RI is worth visiting.  The islands - Block, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket are all worth visiting.  Those aside, stay in northern New England.  

Nice visiting... but after our years here, we do so very much love coming home.

 

The place we stayed at was very nice, but the city itself wasn't one I wanted to walk around in. And it didn't really matter since it was just an overnight stay. I do want to thank you for all of the great advice you gave us though. It wasn't that your advice that was bad at all. If I had to do it over again, I would bypass ALL the big cities around there. The only real reason for staying in Baltimore was so we'd be close to Philly the next day, and we decided to not go there as well. 🙂

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Mudrun, I need to take you with us next time, your wealth of knowledge about New England is incredible. 🙂 Maybe you should be a New England travel agent! 🙂 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hahaha, I figured that's what you meant - happy to provide advice and guidance!  having a local perspective transforms an experience.

Baltimore is really its own thing; we were sad to leave but the city will break your heart every so often with some of what happens there.  It toughens you in some good ways, I guess, but its good to leave before you get too hardened against things.  Its a shame.

IIRC, Jefferson called Baltimore 'a beautiful woman in a dirty dress' and its still true today.  Cant remember if I mentioned that in earlier posts.

We visited Ireland this past year with my kids and family, and while over there, met an Irish guy who was coming here for a wedding in DC.  But he was a huge fan of Its Always Sunny in Philadelphia and he wanted to walk around Philly neighborhoods and visit corner bars.  I tried to convince him that this was actually a terrible idea but I'm pretty sure I failed.  I wonder whatever happened to him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

@Mudrun, I need to take you with us next time, your wealth of knowledge about New England is incredible. 🙂 Maybe you should be a New England travel agent! 🙂 

Thanks, I think!  I'm up there a few times a year. 

If you go the last weekend of July, come to my family's house - the town my parents live in contracts a lobster fisherman from Maine to send a truck full of lobsters ($4.99 a pound), we buy ~ 40, and have a huge get-together.  Day swimming, fishing, kayaking at the lake cabin, followed by an afternoon eating ridiculous amounts of ribs and lobster overlooking the big lake.  Open invitation, last Sat of July!  northgeorgiawx + 1.

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

Thanks, I think!  I'm up there a few times a year. 

If you go the last weekend of July, come to my family's house - the town my parents live in contracts a lobster fisherman from Maine to send a truck full of lobsters ($4.99 a pound), we buy ~ 40, and have a huge get-together.  Day swimming, fishing, kayaking at the lake cabin, followed by an afternoon eating ridiculous amounts of ribs and lobster overlooking the big lake.  Open invitation, last Sat of July!  northgeorgiawx + 1.

 

Man, that sounds awesome! Thank you very much for the invitation! I would love something like that! 🙂 I will certainly keep that in mind the next time we travel up that direction! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

This morning's suite of guidance appears to have latched on to a
common evolution including the placement/intersection of the warm
conveyor belt and active convection that feeds back on the already
strong baroclinic cyclogenesis.  The only differences appear to
the be the magnitude of the deepening.
 Given the
orientation/intersection of the warm conveyor to the negative
tilt/diffluent upper level pattern, extremely deep (sub 973mb)
solutions may be a bit too aggressive. Still, this is becoming
more likely to break non-tropical cyclone pressure October records
across New England. 

Going to be the Beast of October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Man, that sounds awesome! Thank you very much for the invitation! I would love something like that! 🙂 I will certainly keep that in mind the next time we travel up that direction! 

Keep in mind, backwoods New Englanders are broadly obsessed with weather, so you'll be in high demand...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Mudrun said:

Keep in mind, backwoods New Englanders are broadly obsessed with weather, so you'll be in high demand...

LOL! Hey, I can't imagine living the backwoods in the winter, I would be obsessed too! 🙂 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WPC Discussion of the tropical low potential

Quote

Preference: 12z NAM/06z GEFS/00z UKMET blend
Confidence: Slightly below average

Northern portions of the tropical wave that spawned Tropical
Depression 17E, are lifting north across the Bay of Campeche into
the Western Gulf under the influence of the remaining small but
compact shortwave energy near the Big Bend of TX.  Guidance has
come into better agreement in the placement and evolution of the
shortwave as it slides southeast down the Rio Grande, including
the general weakening in favor of the portion of the tropical
wave.  The 12z GFS continues to be the strongest/broadest with the
wave and melds it with the tropical energy over the NW Gulf by
early Friday, given a slightly faster base to the northern stream
longwave trof approaching from the Southwest Fri (see section
below), this shortwave amplifies and ejects much faster than any
other guidance member, even increasing strength and speed from the
06z run which was already well displaced from the bulk of 06z GEFS
members.  As such the GFS is not favored in this region.   On the
other side of the guidance suite, the 00z ECMWF and bulk of ECENS
members support a full shearing of the northern stream shortwave
into the tropical wave, this allows for a westward adjustment of
the lower level wave (including the developing surface reflection)
back west toward the Central Gulf coast Fri into Sat feeling the
approach of the base of the northern stream trough.  While this is
more in line with the other remaining guidance (including the 06z
GEFS mean), it does appear to have some typical known negative
slow bias so suggest either removing the EC/ECENS or weighting
much lower in any blend.   The 12z NAM, looks the best compromise
and meteorologically sound in the interaction of the two streams,
supported strongly by a fairly consistent UKMET (though may be a
bit too aggressive with the convective coverage and magnitude, as
it is apt to do).  Again, both are supported by the bulk of GEFS
solutions
.  The CMC is also generally favorable but is on the
southeast side of the ensemble suite to have high confidence for
inclusion at this point.  So overall a 12z NAM, 06z GEFS and 00z
UKMET blend is preferred at slightly below average confidence.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...