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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, October 17

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Good morning! 

Let's jump right in an see what's going on! The first thing to note is the storm off of the New England coast that has caused numerous power outages overnight and into this morning.

These power outage images are from Poweroutage.us

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Here's a look at the bigger picture. Several things to note. One, the intense storm off the New England coast, two, the system in the Gulf of Mexico, and finally the next system that will bring a cold front early next week.

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National Hurricane Center

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Thoughts from the Atlanta NWS

Quote

Two main systems to impact the CWA during the extended portion of
the forecast. First, a low pressure system moving northward in the
Gulf of Mexico should impact the area during the weekend. The second
system is a cold front moving through during the early part of next
week. Both systems will bring good chances for rain to the CWA.

Still some strength and timing differences between the long term
models with respect to the weekend low pressure system. The GFS is a
bit quicker than the ECMWF and the ECMWF is quite a bit stronger.

Regardless, both models are progging the low pressure system to
begin impacting southern portions of the CWFA late Friday/early
Saturday and clearing out by late Saturday/very early Sunday
morning. With a little better confidence in timing, have upped the
pops to likely on Saturday and Saturday night. Currently, locales
south of Interstate 20 should receive the best rainfall totals, but
this could change depending upon the track of the low center.

The second system will also bring good chances for rainfall to much
of the area. The front is progged to move through during the day on
Tuesday and the GFS and ECMWF have very similar timing. With this in
mind, have increased pops to likely for Tuesday. Currently, the
heaviest precip associated with this system is progged across far
northern GA. <---- Note

Overall, during the weekend and early next week, much of the state
could see one to two inches of rainfall, with some locally higher
amounts.

 

So there is still hope for those of us across north Georgia. 

The WPC Extended Forecast Discussion said this today...

Quote

Model differences were quite significant even early in the period
with respect to the low crossing the Southeast and moving.
The
UKMET and GFS have consistently shown more interaction with an
additional area of upper-level energy currently across western
Texas, causing the eventual surface low across the Southeast to be
deeper and move faster
. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF/CMC showed no or
limited interaction, respectively, with a slower and weaker
surface low across the Southeast. Preferred to lean toward the 12Z
ECMWF/CMC solution until interaction of these feature becomes more
certain,
as this also maintains a forecast close to continuity.
These solutions also fit relatively well within the model/ensemble
consensus elsewhere and a 12Z ECMWF/CMC blend was used for the WPC
forecast during days 3-5 (Sun-Tue).

 

So things are a little chaotic right now in this amped up and fast flowing pattern. The timing and the interaction of the various pieces doesn't provide a great deal of confidence in terms of our impacts at the moment, especially in the specific details that say exactly where the rain might fall. In the big picture image above, notice the upper level low sitting over TX. Let's watch that to see what interaction it has with the Gulf surface low. 

I was just glancing at the GFS ensemble temps for next week and it appears that after Tuesday another cool down is in store. Here's a look at the Blairsville temps.

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Here's a look at the morning temps across north Georgia. Love seeing those 30's!

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So right now, rain is the "most" important part of the puzzle. Despite the rain that fell over south Georgia, the areas that really need it are over the northern half of the state.

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So hang in there,  we still have hope. The WPC rainfall forecast looks like this "for now". Yes, as you have gathered, things don't always end up like the forecast. This goes through 8 am Wednesday. The eventual track of the Gulf system will determine how this pans out.

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So that's it for now. You need more? Keep checking back, I'll be updating here all day long. 

Hope everyone has a great Thursday! 🙂

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I have a lot of thoughts this morning.  One, I am so thankful fall weather is here temp wise.  The heat had become so oppressive.  I am anticipating some below 80 temps here in Metter for highs and that beautiful NNW breeze.  Because of the drought i hope the tropical system is at the upper part of the strength scale if it is gonna blow through.  Slow down or strengthen....  We need the rain in Ga.     

Last i can't wait for the 1st good system we see visions of "snowdays and sled dustin, and model watching"

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I hear what you're saying. Down there, it's always tough to get a good shot of cooler weather in the fall. It looks like you got a decent amount of rain over the last 10 days, wish I could say the same for the northern part of the state. 

I can't wait either. 🙂

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Seeing the water vapor wrapping around the 300 mb upper level low. Notice the jetstream rounding the base of the low. That ventilation will help to strengthen the low and at the same time, move it rapidly north then northeast.

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Steve is there a discussion about possible cyclone 16 on here? also one could only hope for another Opal but not hurt anyone.

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8 minutes ago, Jeff9702 said:

Steve is there a discussion about possible cyclone 16 on here? also one could only hope for another Opal but not hurt anyone.

That's the one you see in the image in the post. It will probably be Nestor. Who names their kid Nestor? 😜 Posting an update now. Tropical Storms Warnings up

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26 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Got to 35 last night. Might have a shot at a frost if it stays calm and clear tonight. 

That's great! i managed to get down to 43.5º F myself! It felt awesome this morning!

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And we think we went a long time without rain.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT THU OCT 17 2019

...ST GEORGE BEAKS RECORD CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...

ST GEORGE HAS REPORTED 122 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 121 DAYS SET IN
1930. THE LAST TIME ST GEORGE REPORTED MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS JUNE
17, 2019.
 

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