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Tropical Storm Nestor

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

  • DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT
  • TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West.  The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

145809_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.f5aed1640cd204bf670a0f687e9af869.png

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico.
The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the
associated convection is getting better organized.  However, a
strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across
southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present
over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The ECMWF and
GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the
front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low.  On the
other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become
the primary low pressure system.  Either way, it is likely that a
low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical
cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect
portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h.  
Based
on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone
Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge
watches/warnings are being issued.

The system should track generally northeastward in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model
guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h.
 The forecast
track lies a little to the south of the model consensus
, as the
UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track.  The forecast track
brings the system across the southeastern United States between
48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the
mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level
divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong
vertical shear.  
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is
unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical
tropical cyclone.  The system is expected to be fully extratropical
by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time.

Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions
of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong
winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday.
Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground
level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to
Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in
these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the
north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the
arrival of the center.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS:

INIT  17/1500Z 22.4N  95.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 23.7N  94.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  18/1200Z 25.8N  91.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 28.5N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 30.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z 35.5N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1200Z 37.5N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1200Z 38.0N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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2 minutes ago, SuperCell said:

Hoping for a turn north! More rain, the better!

Me too! We need this much rain to even get us close to getting out of it.

862192249_addpcp(1).thumb.gif.d47f0d410e119c14e3ed1088ba7239aa.gif

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen

Preference: Please refer to 15z NHC forecast
Best Proxy: 12z GFS/00z UKMET up to 19.06z; GFS/UKMET/00z ECMWF thereafter

Most of the guidance has finally come to consensus with the
northern closed low across TX in terms of placement, depth, and
shape to have better confidence in this portion of the stream.
The tropical/subtropical stream is still a bit elongated and
highly dependent on convective enhancement to the mass fields, so
there remains moderate spread.  The 12z GFS and 00z UKMET are well
timed to the official NHC forecast even early in the forecast
process but still on the southeast side of the official track.

The 00z ECMWF shows stronger/tighter binary interaction between
the northern and tropical streams deepening the surface wave very
near the mouth of the MS River by 19.00z which is NW of the track.

 After 19.00z, the official forecast remains dominantly near the
GFS/UKMET with some increasing weighting toward the ECWMF
especially as the wave reaches NC/East Coast at 21.00z
.  The 12z
NAM remains weak and slow, and CMC is also weak and well south of
the track to not blend either.   So, initially the best proxy to
the 15z NHC forecast is a 06z GFS/00z UKMET blend up to 19.06z,
then incorporate increasing influence/percentage to the 00z ECMWF
after 19.06z.

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Steve

I have been reading this morning.  Some are posting the Euro, Some the GFS--In other words, same old song,different verse.  They have warnings from La to almost mid Fla.   Hurricane to subtropical predicted ...  

Your thoughts?

Edited by RickyD
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What I posted earlier

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen

Preference: Please refer to 15z NHC forecast
Best Proxy: 12z GFS/00z UKMET up to 19.06z; GFS/UKMET/00z ECMWF thereafter

Most of the guidance has finally come to consensus with the
northern closed low across TX in terms of placement, depth, and
shape to have better confidence in this portion of the stream.
The tropical/subtropical stream is still a bit elongated and
highly dependent on convective enhancement to the mass fields, so
there remains moderate spread.  The 12z GFS and 00z UKMET are well
timed to the official NHC forecast even early in the forecast
process but still on the southeast side of the official track.

The 00z ECMWF shows stronger/tighter binary interaction between
the northern and tropical streams deepening the surface wave very
near the mouth of the MS River by 19.00z which is NW of the track.

 After 19.00z, the official forecast remains dominantly near the
GFS/UKMET with some increasing weighting toward the ECWMF
especially as the wave reaches NC/East Coast at 21.00z
.  The 12z
NAM remains weak and slow, and CMC is also weak and well south of
the track to not blend either.   So, initially the best proxy to
the 15z NHC forecast is a 06z GFS/00z UKMET blend up to 19.06z,
then incorporate increasing influence/percentage to the 00z ECMWF
after 19.06z.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen

Preference: Please refer to 15z NHC forecast
Best Proxy: 12z GFS/UKMET through Friday 2 pm; 12z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
thereafter

19z update: The 12z ECMWF shows a bit more reflection of the
initial surface wave emerging from the Central Gulf, but still has
the greatest hybrid look through the vertical depth of the cyclone
than the GFS/UKMET.  While the ECMWF remains on the western side
of the guidance, a blend in position of the ECMWF with the 12z GFS
and 12z UKMET (which remained fairly consistent, perhaps a shade
stronger) will be the closest proxy to the official NHC
track/intensity starting a bit earlier around 18.18z...though a
GFS/UKMET blend remains better in line prior to 18.18z.

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22 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Euro ensemble trended a hair north on this latet run.

Strength and precip?

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GFS showing very limited moisture except on the coast.  Inch, maybe Inch and a half.....  Definitely not tropical moisture and it is moving fast.  But we are in a prime spot for a normal system.  Instead it seems to be either right on the coast, or on the S Carolina upper coast?

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 to 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast
later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the
southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then
anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance
again in a few hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the possible center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

 

083734_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

  • NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER
  • DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight
and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States on
Saturday and Sunday. The system is forecast to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina by late Sunday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected later today, with
weakening forecast after the system moves inland.

The disturbance is expected to become a tropical or subtropical
storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

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145015_key_messages_sm.png.dfb73a61b55c3e06f1adbb7edac36392.png

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Well, let me try this AGAIN.

This is the latest infrared satellite image of Nestor. Notice two things.

  • The storm appears to be gaining strength and appears to be trying to form an eye.
  • Notice the upper level low as it spins to the NW of the storm.

Not sure what the NHC is waiting on, it already has 60 mph winds, so I'm calling it what it is, Nestor

 

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I've renamed the post. TS winds are 39-73 mph winds. We are at 60 mph right now. Another 13 and we'll have a hurricane.

Definition from the NWS

Quote

Tropical Storm. A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds ranging from 39-73 mph (34 to 63 knots). Hurricane. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater (64 knots or greater).

I understand they are "waiting" on a defined center, but they've named plenty of storms that don't look this good, and not named storms that they should have. 
Bastardi said this earlier.

Quote

Interesting idea.. a storm with pressures down to 1001, over 85-degree water and 60 mph, but not named, Yes I see it still has competing centers, but this is not a classroom.. There are plenty of storms that have been named with less, ( admittedly plenty that were better organized that weren't) But it simply goes to re-enforce my pet peeve, that its anyone guesses in some situations and may depend not on objective scales, but who is looking at it. My take is it has a broad circulation, it's over tropical waters, it's got tropical storm force winds in what is a prime season and area still in the gulf. Name it and be done with it

 

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Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2019

FLZ151-155-190000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.CF.Y.0002.191018T1552Z-191020T1200Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.SU.Y.0004.191019T0500Z-191020T1200Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.RP.S.0018.191018T1900Z-191021T0000Z/
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-
1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2019

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND IN TAMPA BAY.

* COASTAL FLOOD TIMING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY DURING
  HIGH TIDES.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE
  WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE SHORELINE TO BE FLOODED.

* HIGH SURF...5 TO 7 FEET.

* HIGH SURF TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* HIGH SURF IMPACTS...WIND DRIVEN SURF WILL CREATE DANGEROUS RIP 
  CURRENTS. 

* RIP CURRENT TIMING...INCREASING WAVE ACTION WILL CREATE RIP 
  CURRENTS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 
  SUNDAY. 

* RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE 
  DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT AREA BEACHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. FOR MAXIMUM SAFETY...SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

FLZ050-160-162-165-190000-
/O.CON.KTBW.SU.Y.0004.191019T0500Z-191020T1200Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.RP.S.0018.191018T1900Z-191021T0000Z/
PINELLAS-COASTAL SARASOTA-COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-
1152 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2019

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* HIGH SURF...5 TO 7 FEET.

* HIGH SURF TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

* HIGH SURF IMPACTS...WIND DRIVEN SURF WILL CREATE DANGEROUS RIP 
  CURRENTS. 

* RIP CURRENT TIMING...INCREASING WAVE ACTION WILL CREATE RIP 
  CURRENTS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 
  SUNDAY. 

* RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CREATE 
  DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AT AREA BEACHES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. FOR MAXIMUM SAFETY...SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.
PAY ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

  • DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR
  • DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite imagery and ship and buoy data indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure system has become better defined,
and the disturbance is now Tropical Storm Nestor.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 89.5 West. Nestor is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the east-northeast by early Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later
today and tonight and move inland across portions of the
southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, with weakening
forecast after Nestor moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose
tropical characteristics and become post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
mainly to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by later today and this evening, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible tonight and early Saturday
near the Florida Gulf Coast from the central panhandle to western
parts of the Florida peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

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