NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 18 Good morning! Once again this morning, let's jump right in to see what's going on. Here's your morning view of will be Nestor today. This is an infrared view along with the 300 mb heights (purple lines) and surface pressure (blue lines). Notice that 16 is not vertically aligned with the upper level low. The surface low is being pushed along by the winds wrapping around the base of that ULL. Here is the current track forecast as it relates to Georgia NWS Atlanta thoughts Quote The rest of the short term forecast will be focused on Potential Tropical Cyclone sixteen currently located in the Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to become named storm at some point later today. Models are still showing some differences in speed and location of the system, but overall the system is expected to move northeast fairly quickly towards the Florida panhandle by early Saturday, before moving into southwestern Georgia Saturday morning and across the rest of central/southern Georgia Saturday evening. Stronger winds are expected to increase across the local forecast area, with the highest wind speeds across central Georgia, by early Saturday. Wind speeds will continue to be monitored as the forecast is fine tuned as there is the potential that a Wind Advisory may be needed for the winds. As the system crosses the area, PWATs are also expected to increase to the 2+ inch mark, so some periods of heavy rain will be possible. In addition, rainfall totals from early Saturday through early Sunday are around an inch across the area with closer to 2 to 3 inches across eastern central Georgia, although some locally higher amounts will be possible. Those interested should continue to monitor updates to the forecast as the situation continues to evolve. With additional cloud cover and precipitation from Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen across the area on Saturday, high temperatures are expected to remain well below seasonal norms, with highs in the 60s and lower 70s with 50s across the mountains and northeastern Georgia. North georgia will be on the weaker side of the storm as usual. But we will be wind and rain, just not as strong or as much as areas further to our south. This first image shows rainfall amounts through.8 pm Saturday night. No, not a gully washer for us, but I'll take any rain at this point This next image shows the rainfall totals through 8 am Tuesday The other impact will be winds. Though 16 won't be a very strong storm, its quick forward motion means that the winds will carry further inland. The images I'm going to show are 10 meter wind gust, so subtract 10-15% for surface gust. This first image is for 2 pm Saturday This image is "accumulated wind gust, much like precip totals, it is for the entire period through 9 pm Saturday night, not a specific time period. Very cool temps for Saturday and Sunday as clouds and rain keep us below normal much of the time. Sunday will be a little warmer. Highs Saturday I'll be updating the "Disturbance" post as conditions warrant, but I'm not expecting any radical changes to anything at this point. Oh... for the most part... today will be sunny! Have a great Friday! Winter begins in 65 days The hollow winds begin to blow, The clouds look black, the glass is low; The soot falls down, the spaniels sleep, And spiders from their cobwebs peep. –Dr. Edward Jenner (1749–1823) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 18 In case anyone would like to take a weather lesson, here's a good that I'll be taking today. All of the MetEd courses are free to the public, you just need to create an account. These are VERY good and there is always a lot to learn. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=1458#.XamNp-hKiUk 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 18 Ok, busy map so follow along. 🙂 The satellite part is water vapor. The blue lines are surface pressure (MSLP). The purple lines are 300 mb pressures. The wind barbs are 300 mb winds. You can see how the upper air winds are ventilating Nestor ( yea, I';m going to just go ahead and call him that) from southwest to northeast as those winds wrap around the base of the low. If the storm was moving west, it would be called shear and the storm would be ripped apart. But since it's moving WITH the flow, the upper level winds act like a vacuum cleaner, sucking the air from the Gulf to the upper atmospheric levels which increases convection. It will make the system lopsided toward the NE side. From CrankyWeatherGuy Quote A common theme in hybrid systems or sometimes these Gulf systems is how shear can actually aide development and intensification. [A] The system core has lowering shear overhead and thus should develop. Shear to the north will likely help vent the surface leading to development. The system will be lopsided but this isn't shear ripping across the top of the center it is venting a quadrant. It's just a different construct that can aide in intensification where models would say "no, there's shear, can't intensify" and they miss the setup. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 18 Monday and Tuesday Quote The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of reasonably well-clustered guidance from the 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z Canadian Monday and Tuesday in a pattern with above normal forecast uncertainty. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 3,829 Posted October 18 For our TN folks just north of the border Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
