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NorthGeorgiaWX

Friday, October 18

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Good morning!

Once again this morning, let's jump right in to see what's going on. Here's your morning view of will be Nestor today. This is an infrared view along with the 300 mb heights (purple lines) and surface pressure (blue lines). Notice that 16 is not vertically aligned with the upper level low. The surface low is being pushed along by the winds wrapping around the base of that ULL. 

Snap346062850.thumb.jpg.5243e871e94dacaad273d0d4b7718f1a.jpg

 

Here is the current track forecast as it relates to Georgia

Snap346062849.thumb.jpg.518056ef007190522226c6ac4dda061c.jpg

 

NWS Atlanta thoughts

Quote

The rest of the short term forecast will be focused on Potential
Tropical Cyclone sixteen currently located in the Gulf of Mexico,
which is expected to become named storm at some point later today.
Models are still showing some differences in speed and location of
the system, but overall the system is expected to move northeast
fairly quickly towards the Florida panhandle by early Saturday,
before moving into southwestern Georgia Saturday morning and across
the rest of central/southern Georgia Saturday evening. Stronger
winds are expected to increase across the local forecast area, with
the highest wind speeds across central Georgia, by early Saturday.
Wind speeds will continue to be monitored as the forecast is fine
tuned as there is the potential that a Wind Advisory may be needed
for the winds.
As the system crosses the area, PWATs are also
expected to increase to the 2+ inch mark, so some periods of heavy
rain will be possible. In addition, rainfall totals from early
Saturday through early Sunday are around an inch across the area
with closer to 2 to 3 inches across eastern central Georgia,
although some locally higher amounts will be possible.
Those
interested should continue to monitor updates to the forecast as the
situation continues to evolve.

With additional cloud cover and precipitation from Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen across the area on Saturday, high
temperatures are expected to remain well below seasonal norms, with
highs in the 60s and lower 70s with 50s across the mountains and
northeastern Georgia.

 

North georgia will be on the weaker side of the storm as usual. But we will be wind and rain, just not as strong or as much as areas further to our south. 

This first image shows rainfall amounts through.8 pm Saturday night. No, not a gully washer for us, but I'll take any rain at this point

wpc-georgia-total_precip_inch-1529600.thumb.png.aa9ab4bcde293d4631ab6c31aec09907.png

 

This next image shows the rainfall totals through 8 am Tuesday1140234229_wpc-georgia-total_precip_inch-1745600(1).thumb.png.656b75124170575229f1c026f9c3dc49.png

 

The other impact will be winds. Though 16 won't be a very strong storm, its quick forward motion means that the winds will carry further inland. 

The images I'm going to show are 10 meter wind gust, so subtract 10-15% for surface gust. This first image is for 2 pm Saturday

ncep-georgia-gust_mph-1508000.thumb.png.cbb9b05282288c6e52e996b01211c2e1.png

 

This image is "accumulated wind gust, much like precip totals, it is for the entire period through 9 pm Saturday night, not a specific time period.

nam-georgia-gust_swath_mph-1533200.thumb.png.754617c54073b957c4b351bbcd282b6d.png

 

Very cool temps for Saturday and Sunday as clouds and rain keep us below normal much of the time. Sunday will be a little warmer. 

Highs Saturday

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f-1508000.thumb.png.cd7b14eccfc12c71410fe3832b8c745b.png

 

I'll be updating the "Disturbance" post as conditions warrant, but I'm not expecting any radical changes to anything at this point. 

 

Oh... for the most part... today will be sunny! 
Have a great Friday!

Winter begins in 65 days

The hollow winds begin to blow, 
The clouds look black, the glass is low; 
The soot falls down, the spaniels sleep, 
And spiders from their cobwebs peep. 

–Dr. Edward Jenner (1749–1823)

forecast-18.jpg.3c8c63b4e1ebae03183ad991521cf9ae.jpg

 

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Ok, busy map so follow along. 🙂

The satellite part is water vapor. The blue lines are surface pressure (MSLP). The purple lines are 300 mb pressures. The wind barbs are 300 mb winds.

You can see how the upper air winds are ventilating Nestor ( yea, I';m going to just go ahead and call him that) from southwest to northeast as those winds wrap around the base of the low. If the storm was moving west, it would be called shear and the storm would be ripped apart. But since it's moving WITH the flow, the upper level winds act like a vacuum cleaner, sucking the air from the Gulf to the upper atmospheric levels which increases convection. It will make the system lopsided toward the NE side.

From CrankyWeatherGuy

Quote

A common theme in hybrid systems or sometimes these Gulf systems is how shear can actually aide development and intensification.

[A] The system core has lowering shear overhead and thus should develop.

Shear to the north will likely help vent the surface leading to development. The system will be lopsided but this isn't shear ripping across the top of the center it is venting a quadrant. It's just a different construct that can aide in intensification where models would say "no, there's shear, can't intensify" and they miss the setup.

Snap346062853.thumb.jpg.6c1972901ec764ff5a962c549388d89e.jpg

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Monday and Tuesday

Quote

The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite blend of reasonably well-clustered guidance from the 06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z Canadian Monday and Tuesday in a
pattern with above normal forecast uncertainty.

 

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