NorthGeorgiaWX 4,320 Posted October 19, 2019 Good morning! Busy day today so here we go. I'm having doubts on how much we'll see here. First, Nestor information as of 4 AM . You can see the winds have dropped but so has the forward speed. Quote BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA NESTOR GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida NWS Atlanta Quote The focus of the short term period will continue to be dominated by Tropical Storm Nestor. Tropical Storm Nestor is currently located just off the coast of the Florida panhandle. Nestor is expected to move inland later this morning and then track into southwestern Georgia before continuing northeast across central Georgia through the day today and into South Carolina later this evening. Overall, the system is moving fairly quickly, so impacts overall will be short lived across the area. Rain is currently overspreading central Georgia and that trend will continue through the day as chances for rain increase further north through the morning. With PWATs increasing into the 2+ inch range across central Georgia there may be periods of heavy rain at times, but overall, rainfall totals through early Sunday morning are around an inch across the area, with around 2 to 2.5 inches of rain across portions eastern central Georgia, with some locally higher amounts possible. WPC also has portions of east central Georgia in an Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall so periods of heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding issues. Winds are also expected to increase throughout the day today, with the strongest winds expected across central Georgia, especially far east central Georgia. A Wind Advisory is in effect across portions of central and east central Georgia beginning later this morning through late this evening for winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts 30 to 50 mph possible, which will have the potential to down trees across portions of central Georgia. In addition, instability is rather limited with this storm, but thunderstorms can't be ruled out mainly across central Georgia in addition to the threat for an isolated tornado across east central Georgia where a Marginal Risk for severe weather has been outlooked.With the additional cloud cover and precipitation across the area, high temperatures will be much below average with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Later this evening, precipitation is expected to taper off from southwest to northeast as Nestor clears the area and is absorbed into the upper level flow. In the wake of the storm, the area expected to remain mostly dry on Sunday with high temperatures rebounding to 70s across the area. WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion Quote ...Georgia/Carolinas/Virginia... Precipitable water values of 2-2.5" should exist in these areas along with 850 hPa inflow of up to 60 kts (with effective bulk shear to match). While instability will be harder to come by within the system's comma head, the low- to mid-level frontogenesis within this feature should lead to longer duration moderate to heavy rainfall than one would otherwise expect from an accelerating system. Low level inflow across the Carolinas counters the mean wind, which should aid precipitation efficiency. A ceiling of 1-2" an hour totals is anticipated. Meanwhile, further south, most of Florida is under a Tornado Watch (outlined in purple). My dad is getting hammered in Sarasota right now. I'll be tracking Nestor all day, both here and on Facebook, so please check back in for the latest. BTW, look at the highs for today i the image below. This will be our coolest day of the fall so far. Have a breezy Saturday! 🙂 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 4,320 Posted October 19, 2019 Expected WPC rainfall through 2 PM Sunday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingOfTheMountains 881 Posted October 19, 2019 Hopefully this flips back but man if this isn't just a terrible reminder of basically all of last winter. Modeling looks great for us in the long range and then the trough turns into a ridge as we get closer. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingOfTheMountains 881 Posted October 19, 2019 Not that the EPS is the end all be all of modeling, but this flip certainly can't be ignored. We'll see if the GFS suite sticks to its guns over the coming days. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 4,320 Posted October 19, 2019 The Euro longer range stuff has been way off lately. According to those that track it, it's been difficult for the Euro to see the cold. It's been playing catch up more than leading. Most people think that the rest of the month (after the next front) will be below normal and it carries into at least the first week of November. We'll see. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 4,320 Posted October 19, 2019 The Euro also hasn't been matching it's own MJO forecast either. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 4,320 Posted October 19, 2019 2 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said: Not that the EPS is the end all be all of modeling, but this flip certainly can't be ignored. We'll see if the GFS suite sticks to its guns over the coming days. LOL! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingOfTheMountains 881 Posted October 19, 2019 DT certainly doesn't mince words lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 4,320 Posted October 20, 2019 Meanwhile, some place that's a little colder. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthGeorgiaWX 4,320 Posted October 20, 2019 Winds at 850 mb (about 4700 feet tonight) are spinning around with max speeds of about 40 knots. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
