Saturday, October 19

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

Good morning! Busy day today so here we go. I'm having doubts on how much we'll see here. 

First, Nestor information as of 4 AM . You can see the winds have dropped but so has the forward speed.

Quote

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

• WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
• NESTOR GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida
 

 

NWS Atlanta

Quote

The focus of the short term period will continue to be dominated by
Tropical Storm Nestor. Tropical Storm Nestor is currently located
just off the coast of the Florida panhandle. Nestor is expected to
move inland later this morning and then track into southwestern
Georgia before continuing northeast across central Georgia through
the day today and into South Carolina later this evening. Overall,
the system is moving fairly quickly, so impacts overall will be
short lived across the area.

Rain is currently overspreading central Georgia and that trend will
continue through the day as chances for rain increase further north
through the morning. With PWATs increasing into the 2+ inch range
across central Georgia there may be periods of heavy rain at times,
but overall, rainfall totals through early Sunday morning are around
an inch across the area, with around 2 to 2.5 inches of rain across
portions eastern central Georgia, with some locally higher amounts
possible. WPC also has portions of east central Georgia in an
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall so periods of heavy rainfall
could lead to localized flooding issues. Winds are also expected to
increase throughout the day today, with the strongest winds expected
across central Georgia, especially far east central Georgia. A Wind
Advisory is in effect across portions of central and east central
Georgia beginning later this morning through late this evening for
winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts 30 to 50 mph possible, which will have
the potential to down trees across portions of central Georgia. In
addition, instability is rather limited with this storm, but
thunderstorms can't be ruled out mainly across central Georgia in
addition to the threat for an isolated tornado across east central
Georgia where a Marginal Risk for severe weather has been outlooked.
With the additional cloud cover and precipitation across the area,
high temperatures will be much below average with highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s across the area. Later this evening, precipitation
is expected to taper off from southwest to northeast as Nestor
clears the area and is absorbed into the upper level flow. In the
wake of the storm, the area expected to remain mostly dry on Sunday
with high temperatures rebounding to 70s across the area.

 

 

 

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion

Quote

...Georgia/Carolinas/Virginia...
Precipitable water values of 2-2.5" should exist in these areas
along with 850 hPa inflow of up to 60 kts (with effective bulk
shear to match).  While instability will be harder to come by
within the system's comma head, the low- to mid-level
frontogenesis within this feature should lead to longer duration
moderate to heavy rainfall than one would otherwise expect from an
accelerating system.  Low level inflow across the Carolinas
counters the mean wind, which should aid precipitation efficiency.
 A ceiling of 1-2" an hour totals is anticipated.

 

Meanwhile, further south, most of Florida is under a Tornado Watch (outlined in purple). My dad is getting hammered in Sarasota right now.

 

 

I'll be tracking Nestor all day, both here and on Facebook, so please check back in for the latest. BTW, look at the highs for today i the image below. This will be our coolest day of the fall so far.  

Have a breezy Saturday! 🙂

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

Expected WPC rainfall through 2 PM Sunday.

[KingOfTheMountains 1,134]

Hopefully this flips back but man if this isn't just a terrible reminder of basically all of last winter. Modeling looks great for us in the long range and then the trough turns into a ridge as we get closer. 

 

[KingOfTheMountains 1,134]

Not that the EPS is the end all be all of modeling, but this flip certainly can't be ignored. We'll see if the GFS suite sticks to its guns over the coming days. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

The Euro longer range stuff has been way off lately. According to those that track it, it's been difficult for the Euro to see the cold. It's been playing catch up more than leading. Most people think that the rest of the month (after the next front) will be below normal and it carries into at least the first week of November. We'll see.

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

The Euro also hasn't been matching it's own MJO forecast either.

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

2 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Not that the EPS is the end all be all of modeling, but this flip certainly can't be ignored. We'll see if the GFS suite sticks to its guns over the coming days. 

LOL!

 

[KingOfTheMountains 1,134]

DT certainly doesn't mince words lol

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

Meanwhile, some place that's a little colder. 

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 5,172]

Winds at 850 mb (about 4700 feet tonight) are spinning around with max speeds of about 40 knots.