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NorthGeorgiaWX

Tuesday, October 22

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Good morning! 🙂

Things didn't quite work out as I expected yesterday, but my rain is getting ready to push through here in just a little while. A little light and and scattered well,  sounds like a Waffle House order. 😜

1244424342_GR2A-20191022-KFFC_1012_BR_0.5-1012.thumb.png.14f54ab424a2ae7bd60d31f5cff5b5b7.png

 

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Meh. It lost its "push" yesterday as the parent low took all of the energy with it. 

 

This weekend system is still very iffy according to the Weather Prediction Center.

Quote

Models and ensembles continue to show quite varied medium range
solutions
that mainly stem from the extent of short range
shortwave digging down through the w-central U.S. and subsequent
southern stream flow separation. Forecast confidence is not
stellar.

In other words, anything could happen. The muddy water will become clearer as time goes on, but don't bet your weekend on anything just yet. The WPC is leaning toward a solution but since the confidence is low, you just can't be sure yet.

Quote

However, suggest preference of the still stormy ECMWF ensemble mean and the
Canadian/Canadian ensemble mean that were primarily used as a
starting point for the WPC medium range product suite
. This
solution offers a threat of widespread heavy rainfall/convection
centered over the South Fri into the weekend from the main lead
system...

This doesn't necessarily mean a lot of rain for us, although the Euro brings a similar system later next week that says 4-5" will fall. 

Here are the differences between the Euro and GFS solutions. The first two images are this Saturday night at 8 PM. Keep in mind, these are the operational runs and not what you would want to use for next week, that's what ensembles are for.

This first image is the Euro. You can see the cutoff upper air low over OK and the big ridge over us. The middle of the country and folks to our west would get the rain. 

Snap346062899.thumb.jpg.91af1ebb371d740d11f8677b594fa75d.jpg

 

This is the GFS solution. Instead of a closed low, it's a strung out trough. The rain wouldn't be as heavy but at least we'd see some.

Snap346062901.thumb.jpg.5c56d35adb96fb64db6b1ea0453d2010.jpg

 

If we just look at the ensembles, we might get closer to the truth. The GEFS is a little faster and weaker with the trough

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While the Euro has a stronger ridge in the east and a deeper low over OK.

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You can see how this dilemma changes things from the NWS Atlanta point of view

Quote

Continued major differences in the long term models for the end of
the week. ECMWF has a cutoff low just emerging from the four
corners states Fri afternoon while the GFS is much more
progressive showing open trough approaching the Mississippi
Valley.

This means the difference between categorical pops and
near nil pops depending on the model you go with. Will use a blend
favoring the GFS and yielding likely pops for west central GA for
now.

Models do get on the same page by pop wise Late Sun night into Mon
morning but for completely different reasons.
Given the
uncertainty, will limit pops to mid range chance at best through
early next week.

 

So we need to wait for a few days to see what in the heck is going on before there can be any confidence in a forecast. Someone will get it figured out. 😉 In the meantime, you can get your "official" NWS forecast here on my opening page at  DaculaWeather.com. Just choose a location that is closest to where you live from the drop-down box. You only need to get close, the forecast is in a big grid so ballpark is all you need. This is my forecast. Once the forecast loads, if you save the link as a favorite, each time you go back, it will be your forecast and you won't have to set it again. See how I try to make it easy for you? 🍺

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Oh... we are going to have some nice fall temps for a few days, so enjoy those! 🙂

Have a great Tuesday!

Winter begins in 61 days!

forecast-22.jpg.4ef60be97662aa52b178fa68b2daa697.jpg

 

 

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A big Ridge in the East/Southeast, trough in the West, above normal temperatures, and very little rain? Imagine that!!! At this rate the trees will still be green at Thanksgiving! 😁 l would think at this rate we should be close to a top 5 warmest October! Top 10 a sure bet! Mother Nature could be giving us a hint concerning the Winter Season? Just saying! 😎

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33 minutes ago, Rusty said:

A big Ridge in the East/Southeast, trough in the West, above normal temperatures, and very little rain? Imagine that!!! At this rate the trees will still be green at Thanksgiving! 😁 l would think at this rate we should be close to a top 5 warmest October! Top 10 a sure bet! Mother Nature could be giving us a hint concerning the Winter Season? Just saying! 😎

I don't think Mother Nature hints. 😉 I'm 5.6 degrees above my October normal, but it's only because of the the first 4 days in the mid to upper 90's. Take those out and I'm 3.2 above. So still not where we need to be, but that first 4-5 days really skews things. Here are my past October mean temperatures at the house, we'll see how the last 8 days plays out. 2019 at the top.

Snap346062914.png.f61e7d9221e9cac96febeb590b8d0244.png

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Cranky's thoughts to close the month and into November

Quote

One more kick in the pipeline. It is over Europe and will come all the way around and drop down into North America. Should arrive in the east some time in the Oct 30 - Nov 1 time frame.

It will time well with the upper level trough over the Bering Sea region. Co-locating with the lower levels over Eastern North America suggests another storm system to either close the month or open November.

After that as illustrated in prior blogs the vortex continues to push towards Russia taking these troughs along with it and we'll see a flatter regime come across North America in time.

Last one in the pipeline that I can tell for now. Closes the pattern. In its wake everything shifts more across the pole towards the Russian Arctic and we'll get this more zonal progressive jet pattern for early to mid November it would seem.

Seasonable during the downs, a little above norms during the ups. Mild for November...but mild for November would be chilly for mid-October. So, perspectives, and all that. Beware the red and blue maps, always.

As per weather with the newer pattern it will probably be blander. Occasional frontal system bringing the pre-post frontal fetch and changes. Showery weather. In about another 10 days we can start to look at November as a whole and see when the next pattern shift may arise.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e102119.htm

 

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12Z Euro on the left, 00Z Euro on the right. Weaker the SE Ridge, further east the storm. 

Quote

Preference: 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF mean/CMC/UKMET
Confidence: Below average

1930Z Update: There is no change to the prelim preferences given
the model differences continue. The 12Z GFS/NAM is still faster
and more amplified while the EC/UK/CMC is slower and deeper with
the closed low in the southern Plains - though a noted adjustment
to the east with the mid-level closed low and associated QPF. The
12Z NCEP guidance seems a bit too fast and the non-NCEP seems a
bit more reasonable as the models have sped up a bit.

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