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Thursday, October 24

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Good morning!

Today is going to be very busy in many ways for me, so I will be brief this morning.

Our next system is beginning to take shape over the center part of the country and it's going to be a big one. A deep negative tilt trough is developing over the Rockies and that trough will interact with an area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan peninsula to drive heavy train through parts of the central and eastern US.



WPC thoughts I shared in the Extended Forecast Discussion


Weather Highlights/Threats:

The resultant weather pattern may offer several significant
 Lead system ejection over the eastern U.S. Sunday and a
wavy trailing front over the Southeast into early-mid next week
should act to focus precipitation. Rainfall may be enhanced with
potential entrainment of tropical moisture stemming from a
tropical disturbance that the NHC is monitoring over the Gulf of

Meanwhile upstream, the deep digging of a series of potent systems
favors an unsettled and cooled West then central U.S. next week
with advent of a series of post-frontal high pressure surges. Some
upwards of 15-30+ degree negative temperature anomalies may rival
record values and upper support/modest moisture sets the stage for
terrain enhanced snows over the West and especially the central
Rockies with potential likely spreading northeast over the central
Plains then Upper Midwest with gradual system progressions and
cooling. Lead heavier rains may also be re-develop along/ahead of
a reinforced low/frontal boundary with renewed return moisture
influx from the Gulf of Mexico over the east-central U.S.
mid-later next week.


And the thoughts from the Atlanta NWS office


A wet and unsettled weekend is on tap for the area given strong
moisture advection and some upglide east of closed upper trough
energy progged to push from the Arklatex to the Ohio Valley.

Scattered to widespread showers can be expected for most of the
area Friday night through Saturday night. The translated sfc
front and axis of enhanced moisture looks to stall across some
portion of the CWA for Sunday into early next week as the wave
energy ejects/elongates NEWD across the eastern CONUS.
Will hold
on to low end chance pops going through midweek given model
discrepancies (GFS with another possible Gulf moisture
surge/disturbance on Monday and Euro with a more amplified trough
west of the region by Wednesday)
. Fcst CAPE generally supports a
slight chance of thunderstorms across the southern majority of the
area each daytime period.

Rainfall from the WPC looks like this through 8 am Sunday...



And like this through 8 am next Thursday.



Looking ahead... I see good news.


I will try to get back later and post some updates for you. 

For now, I hope everyone has a great day.



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4 hours ago, MNW said:

Bless you and your family 

Thank you Merilyn. Hospice starts tonight at midnight. The bed and everything else is in place here at his condo, so he doesn't have to go anywhere. Now it's all about comfort and pain management. We will stay here until he leaves. 

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