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NorthGeorgiaWX

Monday, October 28

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Good afternoon!

Finally had a moment to sit down for a few minutes so I'll make this post a little brief! 

Are you a little warm today? Cloud cover to the west has helped to keep their temperatures down, but no such luck over Georgia. Here's a look at the 4:30 pm temperatures and visible satellite image.

forecast-28.thumb.png.4b3b394b65bcacfb4b996a01865068ee.png

 

It's all getting read to change starting tonight.

Quote

With clear skies and light winds during the overnight hours and wet soil conditions
remaining across north and west Georgia, it is once again possible
to see fog develop overnight and remain into the morning hours on
Tuesday. As the high continues to move away to the northeast, the
persistent upper level ridge centered over the east coast of
Florida and continued southwesterly flow aloft is expected to
bring deep Gulf moisture into north and central Georgia beginning
late tonight and through the end of the short-term period.
This
moisture, combined with a series of shortwaves embedded within the
upper level flow and isentropic upglide, will support the
development of showers on Tuesday. As such, cloud coverage and
rain chances are expected to increase from south to north across
the forecast area beginning early Tuesday morning. Likely to
categorical PoPs are expected south of the I-20 corridor and
across central Georgia during the afternoon hours and will spread
into north Georgia on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Instability on Tuesday is anticipated to be marginal, but
nonetheless sufficient to support a chance for some isolated
thunderstorms across the area during the afternoon hours, with the
exception of the far northern tier.

 

But wait! There's more! 🙂 That's the beginning! 

Quote

For much of the area, Wednesday into early Thursday looks to be
fairly uneventful outside of some showers/isolated storms passing by
within that moist/southerly flow. The more active weather is
expected Thursday afternoon into the evening hours - unfortunately
for Halloween festivities. Models in are pretty good agreement with
this timing, sending a strong cold front across north & central GA
as the upr level storm finally ejects across the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes region.
The 12z GFS is a bit quicker with front entering
northwest GA but EC/NAM appears to be in better alignment at this
time.

This system will need to be monitored for severe weather as well.
Despite the better "dynamics" and forcing expected to be north of
the area associated with the primary sfc low and upper level system,
good low level moisture/instability coupled with around 40kts of
winds at 850MB along and ahead of the cold front could support
some pockets of strong to severe storms, with damaging winds being
the primary threat. Will be able to fine-tune this forecast over
the next 24-48 hours.

High pressure will quickly build in behind this system late Thursday
night into Friday with much cooler and drier air lasting through the
weekend. Expect temps to run at least 10 degrees below normal.

 

 

This is the WPC rainfall forecast through 8 am Friday.

wpc-atlanta-total_precip_inch-2609600.thumb.png.e547191e4f2f004625ece9ca3b521e43.png

 

The GFS is showing Friday morning temps that looks like this and it's looking like some people may have their first freeze while others the first frost.

gfs-atlanta-t2m_f-2609600.thumb.png.5acb8cbebd3a9b7751470955f0fffc87.png

As you can see, changes are on the way! I may try to do an update tonight, we'll see how things go!

Otherwise, have a great rest of the day!

forecast-282.png.af0e4d6d520f7e53fd53aabad83e0fa1.png

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