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NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday. October 30

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Good Wednesday morning!

Well.... yesterday didn't work out too well for rain. Just lets us know that Mother Nature is in charge despite all the great weather models and brilliant minds that predict the weather. And no... I'm not referring to myself. 🙂 I just pass along what they say, I''m the messenger.  🙂

Rain is starting to increase across the area this morning and should continue to increase as the day goes on.

2085590535_GR2A-20191030-KFFC_0848_BR_0.5-0848.thumb.png.7e320c9a127a4dc2b0365863da29b491.png

 

If we zoom out a little, you can see the rain to the west, and that is headed our direction.

Snap346062933.thumb.png.7b2f4ee73a66c39b1249e23ba46634d4.png

 

So here is their message for today.

Quote

Deep moisture will continue to stream into the forecast area
ahead of a strong upper trough now deepening in the Plains. This
trough will gradually swing eastward through Thursday. North and
central GA can expect several rounds of showers during this time.

CAPE increases over the area mainly this afternoon and into the
overnight. Thunder still looks reasonable area wide for 18z (2pm)
today through the end of the period. An isolated severe thunderstorm
is possible mainly this evening and overnight as the surface cold
front approaches the state.
By late morning or early afternoon
Thursday the front should be moving into northwest GA. Have tapered
pops off starting in the far northwest Thursday afternoon.

Clouds and periods of rain should limit the diurnal spread through
the period. At this time...not confident enough to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for any of the area. The next shift can monitor
accumulations and how the rainfall evolves over north and central
GA.

 

The extended part has a little more confidence.

Quote

After the FROPA, a surface high pressure will spread across the
southeastern CONUS and cool, dry air will move into Georgia
through the weekend with PWATS expected to fall below a quarter of
an inch. Areas of far northern Georgia are also forecast to reach
freezing for the first time during the cool season on Friday
morning. An additional cold front, associated by a secondary
shortwave moving across the Midwest, is expected Saturday
afternoon, but given the dry air in place it should result in
nothing more than a wind shift with another stout, surface high
pressure moving across the state Saturday night through Sunday
night. Highs will be consistent Friday through Sunday and are
forecast to be in the mid- to upper- 50s, around 60, and in the
mid- to upper- 60s, to the northwest, along, and to the southwest
of the I-20 corridor, respectfully.
Skies will be mostly clear
with seasonal winds generally out of the north.

By Monday, the region will transition back to an upper-level
southwesterly flow pattern ahead of a broader longwave trough over
the CONUS, returning Gulf moisture to the region and increasing
PWATS to near an inch by Tuesday with surface dewpoints also
rising back into the 50s.The surface high pressure will also
shift eastward, resulting in cold air damming against the
southern Appalachians with a wedge front shifting into the area.
As moist, air overrides the wedge, overcast skies and scatter
rain showers are expected to return by early Tuesday morning.

 

By 9 pm Thursday night, the front should be south of the north Georgia area and you can see that dry air reflected in the precipitable water values. It is going to feel "crisp". 

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-pwat-2570000.thumb.png.17cc81cc5a01c37633f46843dc2f8cbf.png

Here's a loop of the precipitable water that shows the first frontal passage plus the following surge of colder drier air during the weekend. 

gfs-deterministic-se-pwat-1572393600-1572393600-1573214400-40.thumb.gif.711b9f32987457da5ad662d0322065f8.gif

 

These are the Friday morning lows from the National Digital Forecast Database. The NDFD IS the NWS forecast, not a model. It's going to be a great football weekend!

ndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f-2609600.thumb.png.fa106a656e2e4ed86049f0682d8789bf.png

 

And these are the highs at 2 pm on Friday. Chilly. And if you read the extended discussion above, these same basic temps hold through the weekend.

ndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f-2631200.thumb.png.500b652fdcb8418e144881cb5c078c60.png

 

There is still a LOT of rain in the forecast, and this image goes through 8 AM Friday.

wpc-conus-qpf-atlanta-total_precip_inch-2609600.thumb.png.0048cd8d6d8db415985722b6a9594537.png

 

So yes... changes are still on the way. It's early (5 am) so I'll check back later on the progress of the rain, in the meantime, enjoy this rainy Wednesday!

forecast-30.png.9205ebc04e20d1892454bcdf080801a6.png

 

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This living in Metter is going to take some "rehabbing" .  It feels like S Alabama, just not quite as humid.  It has been quite a while since I just "looked on" as winter events unfolded knowing there was absolutely little to zilch chance of seeing anything interesting here.  So far I am averaging  15-20 degrees temp difference.  I see when the front crosses Thursday the NW corner could fall in the 40's.  Meanwhile i will be near or above 80.....  SMH ( teary eyed)

#trulysouthernlivingagain

 

Have a glass of tea on me      #smile

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Just went over an inch already, definitely expect some minor flash flooding concerns if the storms in frontal passage are as heavy as being advertised. Also with a cold front this strong I wonder if places like Brasstown may have a shot at some back side flurries. 

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2 hours ago, RickyD said:

This living in Metter is going to take some "rehabbing" .  It feels like S Alabama, just not quite as humid.  It has been quite a while since I just "looked on" as winter events unfolded knowing there was absolutely little to zilch chance of seeing anything interesting here.  So far I am averaging  15-20 degrees temp difference.  I see when the front crosses Thursday the NW corner could fall in the 40's.  Meanwhile i will be near or above 80.....  SMH ( teary eyed)

#trulysouthernlivingagain

 

Have a glass of tea on me      #smile

Yea... that's why i couldn't live in Florida. I like my change of seasons. 🙂

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Just went over an inch already, definitely expect some minor flash flooding concerns if the storms in frontal passage are as heavy as being advertised. Also with a cold front this strong I wonder if places like Brasstown may have a shot at some back side flurries. 

That's great Chuck! i'm showing 0.30" at the house but my station is under reading right now and of course I'm here in Sarasota with sunny skies and 90 degrees. I'll take a look later about the moisture/cold timing when we get back to the condo.

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Seeing morning low temperatures in the 30's already? 😨  I guess I need to dig out the winter apparel this weekend.  I have been putting it off, as if that would convince summer to stick around a bit longer. 

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4 hours ago, Asperman1 said:

What do you think the Risk of Tornadoes in Central North Georgia are, places like Dawsonville?

Pretty close to zero

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Just crazy to see the consistency with which the waves of heavy rain moved through all day today. I do believe the models might have underestimated the upslope enhancement in the final rain totals. 1488328376.thumb.png.723839bd169935485858cf10e13598d4.png

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