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Thursday, October 31

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Good Halloween morning!

Have you had enough rain yet? It looks like many areas of north Georgia have received at least 3-4" of rainfall with lesser amount as you go further south, and more is on the way. The radar estimated radar is underdone so there's no use showing that to you, but later today we'll have updated reanalysis maps that I can show you.

I suspect that even those maps won't show the next round of rain that is approaching from the west in advance of the cold front and here's the latest view of the incoming rain.




SHORT TERM /Today through Friday:

A strong upper trough will move from the mid MS Valley through the
OH Valley by this evening. This will bring a cold front across north
and central GA today and early tonight. Enough shear and instability
associated with this front could give us isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms today and this evening. Models are in good agreement
that the front should be just past Atlanta to Athens around 18z and
then push into central GA. Rain and thunderstorms should be tapering
off in the northwest corner by early afternoon.
Drier and colder air
will spread over the state later today and tonight. Temperatures
this afternoon should gradually fall and the highs for today should
be this morning for much of the north. Portions of central should
remain warm for most of the day ahead of the front. Tonight will be
the coldest night this fall with temperatures dropping into the 30s
for much of the forecast area. A Freeze Warning has been issued for
most of northwest GA for tonight.
A Flood Watch continues for north
GA until this evening. Friday will be dry and much cooler across the
forecast area.


Temperatures will be taking a tumble as the cold front pushes through. It's going to be pretty cold for the Trick or Treater's tonight, so make sure everyone is bundled up. These are 8 pm temperatures.



Friday morning lows will be the coldest of the season with some areas in the mountains dropping below freezing for the first time this fall, and other areas deep into the 30's. 8 am Friday morning temps.



These are high temps on Friday.



So let's get through the rain today. There is a small chance for some isolated severe thunderstorms in advance of the cold front.


  Southern influence of large-scale height falls will spread across
   the lower MS Valley/Mid-South region tonight ahead of Plains trough.
   Associated surface front has surged into the western TN Valley,
   arcing southwest across LA to near BRO in deep south TX
. Deep
   convection currently persists along the main frontal zone over
   southern LA/southwest MS, but this activity has struggled to
   organize/strengthen appreciably over the last few hours. As the
   upper trough shifts east tonight, 850mb flow should strengthen over
   MS later this evening which could aid strengthening/organization
   along the advancing boundary. Downstream across the FL Panhandle,
   earlier weak supercell activity has gradually weakened within weak
   warm advection zone. Strongest zone of low-level warm advection
   should advance north during the overnight hours and this should
   encourage stronger storms inland ahead of the front. Have increased
   low severe probs a bit across the TN Valley to account for stronger
   storms within the warm advection zone late tonight.


I will be watching these storms this morning and will keep you updated as conditions warrant.

Wish I was there to experience the cold... I've been waiting since summer for temperatures like this, so keep me informed about how it feels. 🙂 I hope everyone stays safe and has a great time getting/giving candy tonight. I know the kids must be excited!

Have a great day and an even better evening!



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Joe Bastardi's blog post this morning.
"Utah sees record cold of -43.6 ºF – ‘Perhaps the lowest October temperature ever recorded’ in continental U.S.
Where is Peters Sink?

Peter Sinks is a natural sinkhole in northern Utah that is one of the coldest places in the contiguous United States. Peter Sinks is located 8,100 feet (2,500 m) above sea level, in the Bear River Mountains east of Logan, within the Wasatch-Cache National Forest.

Still impressive

Heck of a way to run a global warmup eh?"

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435 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019



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