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NorthGeorgiaWX

Monday, November 4

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Good morning! 🙂

Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend weather, it's nice having temperatures below normal for a change! Here at the homestead I ended up 3.9 degrees above my normal October temperatures. If I take out the first 3-4 days of the month, I'd be pretty close to normal. But you can see that November has started off almost 6 degrees below normal and it is looking like it will stay that way through at least mid month. 

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Not a bad day in store except for the increase in cloud cover. Here are the thoughts from the NWS

Quote

Later this morning, a southerly flow at 2k to 4k ft over the cold
dome will provide for increasing isentropic upglide. Moisture will
increase in this layer though the day with mostly cloudy conditions
developing. Though clouds will increase, not anticipating enough
moistening of the column for any pops just yet.

By this evening and into the overnight period, continued isentropic
lift along with the development of an inverted trough off the
southeast coast will be just enough for introduction of isolated
pops. Although best chances appear to be over portions of Central
GA, will carry pops well into North GA as well including the Atlanta
metro. Much warmer temps for tonight expected with 40s for the
north, and only making it to the 50s for portions of Central GA.

 

You can see that increase in moisture in this water vapor image. The wind arrows are are the 850 winds (~4800 feet),

Snap346062953.thumb.png.b504d80d6f008162d01a4b9c848bdc8e.png

 

Looking ahead toward the end of the week, we see this.

Quote

The main event for the long term will be Thursday into Friday
as a cold front moves across the area with deep moisture and an
associated upper level trough.
At this time, instability continues
to be lacking so will just leave the precip as rain. There continues
to be significant differences between the GFS and European.

The European is faster overall will less deep moisture and rainfall
amounts. The European also diminishes rain chances for almost the
entire area for Friday. The GFS is much slower with overall deeper
moisture and greater rain amounts. The GFS also continues rain
chances Friday into Friday night.

Either way, rain chances look to increase on Thursday favoring
north and west GA then come close to peaking Thursday night.

Rain chances Friday and Friday night are very much a blend and
will depending greatly on the overall timing of the system exiting
the area.

Saturday and Sunday look to be dry although another cold front
could be approaching N GA late Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to be near to above normal until Friday
then below normal.

 

So a pretty typical fall week in store. We could always use a little more rainfall, so I can't complain about that. 

For the first time this year, the ensembles are showing VERY weak chances for a little light snow in the north Georgia mountains. Again, not a forecast, but it does show the depth of the cold air that will be in place. 🙂 Yes... it's getting to be that time of the season. 

ecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-indiv_snow-2825600.thumb.png.bd96c8add71f9486104fd7c8b7678575.png

Here's a look at my freeze data here at the house.

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So as always, since you can't change the weather so you might as well enjoy whatever it brings! 

Have a great Monday! 🙂 

forecast-04.png.70bc2d9966ec4a3423d05be2f8d1f578.png

 

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It’s beginning to look a lot more interesting.  Poor Alaska though.  Especially there along the glaciers above Juneau.  Cold in the east warm in the west. Also what about California?

Edited by RickyD
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Hello again everybody! Looking forward to what’s coming down the line this fall and winter season. Hopefully all of us will get to enjoy a nice cold and snowy winter.

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11 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

Hello again everybody! Looking forward to what’s coming down the line this fall and winter season. Hopefully all of us will get to enjoy a nice cold and snowy winter.

Welcome home! 🙂

 

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12 hours ago, RickyD said:

It’s beginning to look a lot more interesting.  Poor Alaska though.  Especially there along the glaciers above Juneau.  Cold in the east warm in the west. Also what about California?

-EPO is what we never got (for more than a day or so) last year. That is the big ridge over the western coast. For us to have a great winter, the Pacific firehose has to be shut down, and that's what the -EPO does. Right now we have a negative AO/NAO/EPO and as you will see soon, that mean COLD over the eastern US.

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