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NorthGeorgiaWX

Tuesday, November 5

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Good Tuesday morning!

I hope everyone is not wanting the heat to come back, because you may be waiting a little while. Things are relatively mild now, but enjoy that while you can as big changes are on the way. You like winter? You're gonna get winter. 

I would start by reading the morning extended forecast discussion.

 

These are the temperature anomalies from the Euro. You'll notice a big blast of colder air for this upcoming weekend, and then a late fall motherlode blast next Wednesday. 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-t2m_f_anom-1572912000-1572912000-1573776000-40.thumb.gif.7858fb3b4218757676c2cc3dffa0e5f8.gif

 

I'm sure your are asking "What does that mean for my backyard temperature?"

This are the ensemble temperatures from the Euro for Blairsville and Dalton, the operational temperatures are even lower and that model shows the highs next Tuesday in the 30's for both locations. 

ecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-2912000.thumb.png.dbaaa8203214e5eab285b0024bdac8e3.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KDNN-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-2912000.thumb.png.01afe7db22e8ca1a12c90b7297753387.png

 

But I KNOW you are wondering about the four letter word. 🙂 Right now, the models are not showing anything in Georgia, but still show the potential for some of the white stuff in Tennessee @MNW you may get an early season surprise! 🙂

This type of setup is what we want to see in the winter time.  We have the west coast blocking (-EPO) and blocking to the east (in this case, an east based -NAO). Those high pressure ridges act to funnel the cold air south over the US as you can see in this image of the pressure setup this morning.

Snap346062957.thumb.png.b06715bc62eefdc0a7c091ddf1a8b0d4.png

 

These patterns are called "Teleconnections" and there are direct correlations with our weather here in the US. Here are three images that will help you to better understand what the EPO/AO/NAO do. These are all negative index depictions, if these go "positive",  then for us, it would mean warmer and not what we want to see. As we move toward winter, these indexes will mean more and more. 

-EPO
epo_neg.thumb.png.9dacf6150423df3ce0576423882b8596.png

 

-AO
ao_neg.thumb.png.9298228f60d0c428ab20afc628cf792b.png

 

-NAO
nao_neg.thumb.png.43ea1de22de0902dba8760f5048d9fa7.png

 

The atmosphere is a big complex mess and it's the combination of these and many other factors that determine our weather. But these are a few that can have a BIG known impact, so we'll keep a close eye on them this winter.

So mild fall temperatures for a few days and then we step down toward more late fall/early winter time temperatures. Enjoy the day!

Snap346062958.png.9aabccce9e149716d9d31dc6ee6c2433.png

 

 

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