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NorthGeorgiaWX

Friday, November 8

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Good Friday morning! 🙂

Loved listening to the rain last night. I need a metal roof. 🙂

The rain has passed and we'll have 3-4 sunny to mostly sunny days in store before our next weather maker starts knocking on the door, and that's the one that everyone is watching. 

Today and Saturday
 

Quote

Regional surface analysis indicates cold front has made it through
the forecast area although the anafront characteristics are still
allowing for some -SHRA across the SE corner. Cold air advection in
effect behind the front as temperatures drop into the 40s across the
Northern tier with 30s not far behind. Winds continue to pick up
behind the front as well with gusts to 20 kts common place north of
I20.

High pressure will never really settle over the local area and
instead builds across the Ohio valley. It will take awhile therefore
to clear all the cloud cover from the local area and this combined
with the aforementioned cool air advection will result in some sites
not getting out of the 40s today.
Clouds to clear just in time this
evening for radiational cooling to take full effect. Have undercut
guidance by a few degrees which matches neighbors. Will need to
upgrade Freeze watch to a warning for most areas although will be a
close call at most locales with temps falling to right around
freezing. The exception will be the NE mountains where upper 20s will
be commonplace.

Re-enforcing shortwave moves through Friday night shunting surface
front even further south. Sunny skies and light winds will result in
a very nice start to the weekend with temperatures seasonably cool
in the 40s for the mountains and low to mid 50s elsewhere.

 

But we need to look ahead to early next week.

Quote

Monday into Tuesday, a deeper shortwave trough will pivot around
the center of the synoptic wave which will drive rapid
cyclogenesis in the northeast CONUS and send an arctic high
pressure down into the plains and midwest. A cold front,
separating this seasonally frigid airmass will begin moving into
the forecast area Monday night.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the
digging shortwave will bring moisture return back to the forecast
area with showers forming along the cold front and moving through
the forecast area Monday night through the day on Tuesday. Lack of
sufficient instability should keep thunderstorms at bay once
again with 0.25-0.50 inch of rain forecast for most of the
forecast area. Following the cold front, temperatures will plummet
by Tuesday evening through Thursday. At the coldest point,
overnight lows on Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the 20's,
about 13-17 degrees below normal, causing the first `hard freeze`
for the majority of the forecast area this season. High
temperatures will also be well below normal Tuesday through
Thursday. On Tuesday, portions of far northwest Georgia are
forecast to see high temperatures in the upper 30's and lower 40's,
about 20-25 degrees below normal. Highs will rebound slightly
through the rest of the long term, rising into the 40's on
Wednesday, and upper 40's and low 50's on Thursday.

We know it's going to be cold, that is pretty much a given. Here is a look at the GFS temperature anomalies (first image) and actual temperatures (second image) from this morning through Friday the 22th. Just know the longer distance images are subject to change, but as you can see, there will be an extended period of time where our temperatures will be running below normal for this time of the year. 

Anomalies in ºF
gfs-deterministic-conus-t2m_f_anom-1573192800-1573192800-1574467200-40.thumb.gif.55d0b3930fa56d4313cc64ec564f2f73.gif

 

Temperatures in ºF
gfs-deterministic-conus-t2m_f-1573192800-1573192800-1574467200-20.thumb.gif.11c40d3066e3a93d8f1e1e26c30ecb57.gif

 

But hey, I know what most of you are thinking and wondering about. 🙂 

Once again, lets look at the ensemble trends for Blairsville. 

Euro
Today - Yesterday

ecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-indiv_snow-3171200.thumb.png.8afe95f75a14c6a275f690c83929bea8.pngecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-indiv_snow-3084800.thumb.png.e22d32d0a0e6370aecd8ccea035605b0.png

 

GFS
Today - Yesterday

gfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-3192800.thumb.png.2d1634d5ef7b16b8c509430db7c02b60.pnggfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-3084800.thumb.png.c26a08f919c966382a70fcb3ad160b1f.png

 

Canadian
Today - Yesterday

cmc-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-3171200.thumb.png.f4813da06444fa943125a364ad6c986e.pngcmc-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-3084800.thumb.png.545e61fe8908ac2baeac1c691ac777d1.png

 

See the trend? And even though this is for Blairsville, it is pretty much the same across all of the top tier Georgia counties

We'll keep watching to see what might happen but it is still VERY early in the season for us to see any snow. This is from the Atlanta NWS office:
 

Quote

Early on November 1, 2014, northeast Georgia received their first snow of the season! A strong upper level low dove into eastern Georgia and the Carolinas, bringing wrap-around moisture from the low pressure system to parts of Georgia. In addition, the area was in northwest flow with cold air being ushered into the state. This combination of precipitation and freezing temperatures brought the first snow of the season to Georgia. Even though the accumulation was limited to the northeastern part of the state, snow flurries were observed as far south as the northern portion of the Atlanta metro area! Overall snowfall accumulations ranged from 0.5-2 inches.

This snow event was unusually early for the season. Although snowfall records across northeast Georgia are somewhat limited, based on records that are available, the previous earliest snowfall at Blairsville was November 10 (1968), at Helen it was November 12 (1968) and at Cleveland it was also November 12 (1968). Please note there is the potential for missing data at these sites.

download.jpg.3c2361242c9efbd46d93dbbb8715bdef.jpg

😛

It's going to be chilly and Freeze Warnings are up for north Georgia tonight.

MapImage.jpg.255c3c186bbcd7dbd00045955e5276d5.jpgMapLegend.jpg.b8c6bb86a35ccfb2a95ad1198178a7ae.jpg

 

I hope everyone enjoys the cooler weather. It should be another great weekend for getting out and hiking, watching football, or just hanging out in the backyard! And enjoy it while you can, Tuesday/Wednesday are going to be cold!

forecast-08.png.ef6d1dc2939000a15bdf91e139e9fb7c.png

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My bud from Ringgold said this morning that Chattanooga Mets are saying Thursday a chance of accumulating snow with system from the south?

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There could be some snow in TN, but very marginal for GA right now.

1 hour ago, RickyD said:

My bud from Ringgold said this morning that Chattanooga Mets are saying Thursday a chance of accumulating snow with system from the south?

 

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11 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Lol, that Canadian is something else 🤣 Surprised we haven't seen something ridiculous from its main run yet given the state of its ensembles.

It can get pretty amped up! 🙂

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Euro and GFS operations runs alluding to the potential for some freezing rain next Thu/Fri timeframe. It comes and goes very quickly. A long way off so for now we'll sit back and watch. 

NOT A FORECAST

gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-3754400.thumb.png.24ad31f3488e628e3970387dcbf59757.png

ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-3776000.thumb.png.58241afe40c085e2d125e5ea04f1d908.png

 

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The Euro has the heavy snow line about 30 miles north of me lol I know, I know, it's early but these are still good signs we have a chance!

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This is the system I've really been interested in the last few days. All it takes is that HP locking in just a little better and stronger and boom, you've got a classic wedge overrunning event. 

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So glenn burns said next weekends storm will be awful. He mentioned tornadoes and snow in the same post! 

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