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Saturday, November 9

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Good morning, good morning!

Let's jump right in with the Weather Prediction Center's Extended forecast discussion. No need to retype it, here's what I posted this morning.

There is still a chance that some of the higher elevations may see some type of winter weather next week, but we're still too far out to know for sure. People have sent me the Glenn Burns hype post from yesterday, and I'm not sure why he was so fired up. There will be a closed upper level low that will slide across the southern US and along the Gulf coast. In the winter time, those are the things weather weenies dream of, and especially if it can phase with northern stream energy. If that happens, you then get a big BOOM and a massive snowstorm. But first... this is still fall, and while our temps will be well below normal for this time of the year, it's still not winter. Second, a system like this requires precise timing and that rarely happens. 

So for now, the higher elevations of the mountains in GA "may" see a little of the white stuff, but it won't really stick (ground too warm) if it snows at all. The system next weekend that Glenn was fired up about holds some promise, but at this distance, we truly have no idea what it might do. 

First... this weekend.


Temps will be a continuing issue for tonight/Sunday morning. The
coldest temps are expected across portions of Towns/Union
counties...with good frost potential elsewhere
. However, the growing
season may be able to be ended across a good portion of the zones
near the NC/TN border. (The growing season can be ended on November
20th OR when a good portion of the county hits 28 degrees.) The
northern tier of counties from Dade all the way across to Towns have
an excellent shot at meeting the 28 degree criteria this morning.

So, am hesitant to issue a Freeze Watch for Towns/Union, especially
since the freezing temps are over less than half of each county at
this time. A Frost Advisory will probably be needed for a good
portion of the CWA once the growing season issue is settled after
this mornings MinTs are reached.


6:30 AM temps


But let's move on to the two main systems for next week.


Monday night, the axis of the upper-level shortwave will be digging
sharply into the southeastern CONUS, and a strong cold front will
begin moving through the forecast area, sweeping through by Tuesday
Light rain is expected along and behind the front with
little to no instability, keeping the precip non-convective. By dawn
on Tuesday morning, temperatures in the lower 30s will begin
filtering into far north Georgia, especially into higher elevations,
and there will be a race between the precip clearing out and colder
temperatures moving in. Models are very divided on if there will be
an overlap and a chance to receive wintry precipitation. The GFS
quickly clears the precip, The ECMWF has a rain/sleet/snow lines
only in the mountains, the GDPS keeps only light rain in the region,
with the NAM being the most aggressive with snow flurries in north
GA at temps as high as 35 degrees. These types of setups don't often
result in widespread wintry precip, therefore it's possible we could
see a mix of precip Tuesday morning for far north Georgia,
especially in higher elevations, but no accumulations are expected.

Afterwards, an arctic high pressure system driven by aggressive
subsidence behind the shortwave will move into the forecast area
bringing very cold air into the region. Temperatures will be 12 to
22 degrees below normal Tuesday through Thursday, with the coldest
temps expected Wednesday morning with lower 20s for north Georgia,
mid-20s along the I-20 and I-85 corridors, and temps near 30 for
central Georgia.

The next weather system will come on either Thursday or Friday as
the cutoff-low over Baja California meanders eastward and gets
caught up in the jetstream. Guidance is nowhere in agreement with
the evolution of this system
. The ECMWF develops a stronger
shortwave north of the low, pushes a weak front through the area
with limited precip on Thursday keeping the influence from the upper-
level wave further south. The GFS, with the absence of a shortwave,
brings the low pressure just south and east of Georgia with a couple
decent rounds of wrap-around precip and the precip line approaching
the freezing line Friday morning.
Until the system approaches and
things become more clear only slight chance to chance precip is
forecast at this time with temps on Friday expected to return to the



Headed up to Big Canoe this morning to look at a couple more houses so I'm keeping it short this morning... I can't wait to get to the mountains. 🙂 

I hope everyone has a great day!


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2 hours ago, Nic said:

Hey Chuck, any afternoon updates that you're seeing?

Being honest I haven't looked at a whole lot today but the Euro looks nice for NW GA on the backside of the first system. But it is cold chasing moisture so the models aren't always to be believed in that scenario, but that is the favored area for the cold to actually get there in time. 2nd late week system looks like a complete non-event now on both models. But I've only glanced at the operationals and haven't looked at any ensembles. 

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Let the fun begin! Good signs for this early in the season but we all know that doesn't necessarily mean anything. The buzz is in the air, though.

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