Jump to content
  • Forum Image
NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday, November 13

Recommended Posts

Good morning! Are you a little cold this morning? 😉 

Temps are in the teens across the mountains this morning with the rest of the area not too far behind.

Snap346063047.thumb.png.0cf13397e798704f0019b4619b85c4ea.png

Snap346063048.thumb.png.fd6628fe751858e9dc46329e36f1f448.png

 

And cold it is, not just here, but all across the eastern US. 136 sites will hit or be close to a record low this morning.

ndfd_record_low_conus_1.thumb.png.df92d8647690032ffa69f6d4a730de26.png

 

These are the low temperature anomalies for this morning.

ndfd_t2m_lo_a_conus_1.thumb.png.c4a728603022010e37380df1251e753b.png

And these will be the low temperature anomalies for Thursday. 

ndfd_t2m_lo_a_conus_2.thumb.png.ed8ebe6dc02ca2f8c16b0bf3adc6b499.png

You always hear me talking about the precipitable water values, but usually they are high when I bring them up because of increased chances for rain. But in this case... it's the opposite, the air is extremely dry. These are forecast values, I believe they are lower than this right now.

nam-nest-conus-se-pwat-3624800.thumb.png.9e74ad5628b42655c7777f7dbf85cde4.png

 

This shows the percentage above/or below normal. Looks like we are running about 10-20% of what is normal for today.

nam-nest-conus-se-pwat_anom-3624800.thumb.png.5c40ba011caa01ad8dd93f40690f9a2e.png

 

There will be a good chance for rain Friday with another 1-2" across the area. 

Quote

As the extended period begins, the forecast area will be in
continued southwesterly flow and increasing deep moisture ahead of
an upper-level trough approaching from the west. Scattered to
numerous showers will also be ongoing ahead of the trough. By
Friday, this trough is expected to deepen into a cutoff low as it
moves into southern Alabama, and will continue to move eastward
towards southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.
Some
discrepancies remain in the model guidance with respect to timing
and the track of the cutoff low, with the latest GFS solution moving
the cutoff low northeastward towards the Carolina coast by Saturday
afternoon and the latest ECMWF solution moving the system more
slowly towards the east Florida coast by Saturday night. As a
result, GFS moves precipitation out of north and central Georgia by
Saturday morning while ECMWF indicates precipitation will linger
until Saturday evening. Model guidance is trending towards a wetter
solution with greater precipitation coverage. As a result, rain
chances Thursday night into Friday have been increased to high-end
likely PoPS across much of the forecast area with diminishing PoPs
across the far northern tier. PoPs will then diminish later Friday
into Saturday, given the remaining uncertainty with the timing of
the system. Rainfall amounts associated with this system currently
look to be highest across east-central Georgia, where amounts of 1-2
inches are possible.

On Sunday, an upper level ridge and surface high pressure build in
over the southeastern CONUS, promoting dry conditions throughout the
day. Another trough then quickly approaches the forecast area in the
early parts of next week, moving over north and central Georgia on
Monday and Tuesday
. Moisture associated with this system is
currently expected to be fairly limited, and no more than slight
chance PoPs are anticipated on Monday and Monday night as a result.
Rainfall totals are furthermore looking negligible, with little to
no measurable precipitation expected at this time. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the extended period. High temperatures of 10-
15 degrees below climatological averages (in the low to mid 50s
across the area) on Friday will steadily increasing each day to 0-5
degrees below average (in the low to mid 60s across the area) by
Tuesday. Lows will similarly run just below average, with
temperatures each morning in the 30s and 40s across the forecast
area.

 

So enjoy this early winter! It sure beats 90's in my book! 🙂

forecast-13.png.26573b3f894665ea138665531e564a37.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you had to guess.. do you think we have a good chance for snow this year?!:) 

 

Hope you’re doing well!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Christine said:

If you had to guess.. do you think we have a good chance for snow this year?!:) 

 

Hope you’re doing well!!

Hey Christine! I am doing great, how about you? How's school going? 

Yes, it appears that this may be an above average snow year for us, at least the way things are looking now. We may have a little warm up going into December, but nothing too bad. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After the disaster that was last winter, just one area wide snow sure would do us a lot of good. So tweets like this one, from experts in the field, definitely make me look forward to the winter. Even Glen Burns, whose normally a bit of a sour pus when it comes to winter weather, has said he expects this to be a very snowy winter. After getting burned by big predictions last year I'm scared to go all in, but man the consensus among the experts seems to be set. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

After the disaster that was last winter, just one area wide snow sure would do us a lot of good. So tweets like this one, from experts in the field, definitely make me look forward to the winter. Even Glen Burns, whose normally a bit of a sour pus when it comes to winter weather, has said he expects this to be a very snowy winter. After getting burned by big predictions last year I'm scared to go all in, but man the consensus among the experts seems to be set. 

Yeah I’m not sure what to make about the whole Glenn burns thing..... normally he’s not like this. 😳

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Hey Christine! I am doing great, how about you? How's school going? 

Yes, it appears that this may be an above average snow year for us, at least the way things are looking now. We may have a little warm up going into December, but nothing too bad. 

It’s going good! I’m still at Baldwin- I live in East Atlanta now though so it’s a bit of a commute in the afternoons. 😕 I’m definitely ready for the breaks and potential snow days!! 😊

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...