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NorthGeorgiaWX

Sunday, November 17

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Good Sunday morning!

Saturday's weather turned out pretty nice and today and most of tomorrow will be the same. There maybe some clouds and a little light rain overnight but nothing to write home about.

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Dry and mild today as the closed upper low and corresponding surface
low off the GA/SC coast finally starts to kick northeast ahead of
the next upper trough digging into the Mississippi Valley
. This next
system shifts east quickly tonight with the better dynamics
remaining north of the forecast area. Trough axis shifts east of the
forecast area during the day Monday. Moisture somewhat limited with
this system, but may see some light precipitation developing across
eastern portions of the forecast area late tonight and early
Monday.

 

The big map (water vapor and 500 mb heights) this morning shows a pair of upper level lows, one near the west coast and one near the east coast with a trough digging across the central US. The upper New England states have some pretty cold temperatures this morning with many locations in the single digits.

Snap346063066.thumb.png.f3954fa6a8b453cc496e06ad0de1c87c.png

 

Our next "real" chance for rain will be toward the end of next week.

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The middle of the week will then be characterized by strong
northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of the trough, followed by
upper-level ridging and surface high pressure building across the
southeastern CONUS. As a result, clear and cool conditions are in
store across the forecast area on Tuesday night and through the
day Wednesday
. Southwesterly flow aloft returns on Thursday which
will lead to a gradual increase of Gulf moisture, promoting
steadily rising temperatures, moisture, and cloud cover. This
trend will continue until a strong upper-level trough and a
deepening surface low moving northeast towards eastern Canada on
Friday drops a cold front into the southeastern CONUS, which will
bring the next round of precipitation to the forecast area by the
end of the week.
Inconsistencies remain in the guidance regarding
the development of this system, but are coming into agreement that
precipitation will affect north Georgia during the day Friday.

 

Looking ahead toward Thanksgiving, this is meteorologist Larry Cosgrove...

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No truly major storms are foreseen from the Great Plains to the East Coast in this time frame. But the hoped-for "Indian Summer" warming trend will not materialize, as a series of shortwaves dropping out of central Canada will maintain a mean 500MB trough right into Thanksgiving. The question mark for this forecast period is simple: when, or if, will the energy moving out of the Southwest phase with the cold trough aligned along the Mississippi Valley? If so, there will be a prominent rain event in the Old South and Eastern Seaboard, with snow threats emerging across the Corn Belt and Great Lakes. That development could occur during the upcoming holiday weekend.

 

Most all the models now keep the below normal temperatures through at least the Thanksgiving period. And... looking ahead further...

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You may remember that the various model weekly and monthly forecasts were screaming warmth for most of the U.S. and Canada in November into December. And, just as obviously, the first half of November has been a solidly warm West vs. cold Central/East alignment, aside form warmth in the Florida Peninsula. The new numerical model runs and ensemble platforms are now keeping that alignment going through the first week of December. Which, to me at least, suggests that it would be unwise to blindly follow the same longer term predictions that gave zero hints at Arctic air mass intrusions from the High Plains to the East Coast.

Now I will admit that the CFS, ECMWF, and SubX projections are still hell bent on warming up the entire continent, even past the start of the new year. That makes for lowered forecast confidence, as the analogs and critical synoptic features are pointing strongly to a rather active, cold-favoring DJFM period.

  • We have a positive/neutral ENSO signature in sectors 4 and 3.4
  • a broad warm pool over the northern Pacific Ocean between British Columbia and Alaskan shores, with a cold pool building below the Aleutian Islands.
  • Combine that with a tendency for the Madden-Julian Oscillation to percolate and connect with the polar westerlies from Phases 6,7, and 8.
  • On top of all this, the Indian Ocean Dipole is firmly negative with a cold pool around Indonesia to below Sri Lanka.
  • That is four parameters that warn of an upcoming cold and stormy period in the eastern two thirds of North America.

I am trying my best to follow the analog set for December, which is essentially split between a warm West and cool/cold East. Note, however, that the comparison test years show a wet West Coast, which suggested that I cut back on warmth from British Columbia into California. I do agree to some extent with a dry Great Plains into Texas. But here again, we have that continued linkage with the equatorial Pacific Ocean moisture/energy source. At some point, the south central U.S. is going to see a storm next month that brings precipitation, and then colder air, to the eastern third of the nation.

Bottom line: I would be very wary of accepting any extensive warming trends across the lower 48 states in December.
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, November 16, 2019 at 9:15 P.M. CT

 

Weatherbell took a look at all of the cold Novembers (like this one) back to 1980 and then looked at the temp anomalies for Dec-Mar and it came out like this. Ironically, many of the analog years that people are looking at came out like this. 

NSS4XtIBy9(1).png.2e1cd213674a14b142081abe3712033d.png

So winter is approaching, the multitude of signs are looking good, and I think based on what we're seeing at the present moment, we are going to have an excellent chance for a good winter across north Georgia. The presence of all of the upper level lows, assuming they continue, gives us increased chances for a winter storm across the southeast. Who is ready? 🙂 Ready or not... winter is coming! 

I hope everyone has a very awesome Sunday!

Winter begins in 34 Days

a wind has blown the rain away and blown
the sky away and all the leaves away,
and the trees stand.  I think i too have known
autumn too long.

–E. E. Cummings (1894–1962)

forecast-17.png.87179167ff54ec8775e9c76b694e1221.png

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8 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

Are we not gonna get a Monday post?

Steve is in Sarasota

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