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Thursday, November 21

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Good morning!

One more nice day before the clouds and rain returns for Friday. Here's a look at the big picture this morning in this water vapor/300mb heights and winds view. A big upper level low still sits over the southwest US while moisture is on the increase over the southeast. 



Friday and Saturday


Ongoing showers will be on the increase Friday night into Saturday
morning across north Georgia.
Rainfall Friday night will initially
be focused in far north Georgia
in the vicinity of the
aforementioned cold front. As a surface low develops over the
Arklatex Friday night and quickly lifts northeastward into the Ohio
Valley Saturday, the front will progress eastward across the
forecast area. Widespread rainfall will thus spread across the area
through the day Saturday
. While only very weak instability continues
to be expected ahead of the front (<200 J/kg SBCAPE), a mention of
slight chance thunder was added on Saturday given frontal forcing
with no concern for any strong/severe. Rain will end from west to
east Saturday night as the front clears the area. Healthy rainfall
totals continue to be expected, specifically across north Georgia
where widespread 1+" totals are forecast and localized totals in
excess of 2" are more likely in the mountains.


WPC rainfall through 7 PM Saturday night looks like this.



Sunday through Tuesday


Sunday will bring cooler and sunny conditions with the forecast area
under the influence of post-frontal high pressure.
Dry conditions
will persist through Monday as the upper flow becomes zonal, and the
surface high begins to shift east of the area. Upper flow becomes
southwesterly by Tuesday as models begin to diverge regarding the
timing and strength of the next system. There is general agreement
that PoPs will begin to increase from the west by late Tuesday into
Tuesday night as the next cold front approaches.

Warm temperatures Saturday ahead of the front will drop to several
degrees below normal on Sunday. The coolest temperatures of the
forecast period will be Monday morning as the surface high settles
over the Southeast with widespread mid-to-upper 30s across the CWA
Temperatures will begin to moderate by Monday as the surface high
shifts eastward with temperatures back to near to slightly above
normal by Tuesday and Wednesday.


Still nothing to write home about, just your general fall weather. We still don't know much about next week yet as the models are still all over the place regarding the Thanksgiving travel period. Hopefully we'll get something locked down this weekend. 

Hope everyone has a great Thursday! Oh... BTW. In my book, winter starts in about 9 days. 🙂 


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GEFS definitely starting to see our warmup. After next week, it's pretty persistent with a stout SE ridge and centering the trough over the Western US. Even in Bastardi's 500 mb picture you can see the SE ridge signal. We all know how stubborn that thing is if it really gets fired up, could easily be a few weeks to a month before we get rid of it. 

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