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Sunday, November 24

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Good Sunday morning!

Did you hear the winds roaring this morning? 🙂 We start off the day much cooler than previous mornings. Temperatures will start to moderate tomorrow and we will remain mild for Thanksgiving week. While the temperatures will be mild, there will be rain around, and that moisture starts to increase during the day on Tuesday.  It appears that each day from Wednesday through Saturday will have a chance for rain, but it won't be all the time and will generally be light. It should be nice for eating a lot of turkey, taking a nap, and watching a football game. 🙂

Temperatures so far this morning. 



Here are some thoughts from meteorologist Larry Cosgrove about the upcoming pattern. 


We go back to a cold West vs. warm Central/East alignment to start the medium range. The full-latitude trough that takes shape to the left of the Continental Divide will have some Arctic elements involved, courtesy of high-latitude ridging over Alaska and northern Canada. To the. The shortwave system that moves into the lower Great Lakes early in the period will have few cold air drainage effects. Those lower temperatures will right of the jet stream, warm air will flow into the Great Plains eastward to the Atlantic shoreline due to a massive heat ridge covering the Gulf of Mexico. But by November 30, major changes will ensue as the cold dome over the Intermountain Region starts to migrate into the national Heartland.

It has been fairly obvious for a while now that there will be a major winter storm (Panhandle Hooker "B" type most likely), and an ensuing shot of Arctic air that may reach as far south as Mexico and Cuba at some point late in the medium range. All of the numerical models agree on this feature, which gives me high confidence in forecasting the event. The problem that occurs with this system is that rain vs. snow delineations will be sharp, and likely unsettled as far as location goes until we know the exact path of the storm. This is at least a two-way phase event, and may translate to a cAk vortex at some point over Ontario and Quebec. 

That entrainment and distribution of Arctic air may be somewhat similar in structure and context as the November 11 - 13 episode. That is, a quick hit but with a major temperature drop affecting a wide swipe east of the Rocky Mountains. The difference here is the stronger storm, which may be a bombogenesis case as it reaches Illinois and Indiana before heading through the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley. Some QPF the schemes show a coastal transference off of the Delmarva Peninsula on December 2, with the vertical center moving into the Gulf of Maine. Now, I doubt that this will be an important snow producer for the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor. But I can see a situation where severe thunderstorms that organize in Texas and Oklahoma follow the surface cold front into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Strong winds will almost certainly be an issue over the eastern half of the country. Snow may be heavy either in synoptic-forcing cases  from IL and WI into Lower MI, N OH and S OH, or lake-effect derived squalls in the Midwest and across middle and Upper Appalachia.


But looking further ahead...


When preparing a longer-term forecast, I always make sure to include different numerical model elements as well as the overall synoptic setting. This is because the farther out a forecast goes, the less guaranteed is the accuracy of the scheme. Time and time again we see the CFS series loading up on cold season winter heat only to see colder scenarios arise and verify. I use the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 as the classic example. Particularly when you look at satellite imagery that has the same strong subtropical jet stream, digging systems from the Gulf of Alaska and the presence of a vast Saharan heat ridge. Blocking signatures in Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland may well be transient, but a net southward displacement of Arctic air happens a lot, with the favored home for the coldest values, as well as snow potential, falling between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia.

The driver for the pattern change heading into the longer term in North America has to be the Panhandle Hooker "B" cyclone of December 1 - 4. The 500MB height and surface temperature anomaly fields stay slanted warm West vs. cold Central/East through Week 3 on the ECMWF panels, but moderate quickly in mid-December. The CFS series, as usual, shows the cold air vanishing. But the SubX ensemble package keeps the locations east of the Front Range in the chilly-to-cold thermal spectrum through December 20. At the very least the Heartland and Old South are colder than normal well into next month. Many are asking about snow chances, now that the snow line has crept below the U.S./Canada border. There may be a storm that takes a suppressed track through the Deep South and off of the East Coast, but so far the numerical model solutions are hazy on the topic. But more chances are likely further on into the winter season, as some of the systems taking the familiar "Texas to western New York trajectory may be prone to redevelopment off of the East Coast.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, November 23 , 2019 at 11:50 P.M. CT

I expect to see snow this year, and more than once. 


I have a couple of nice scenery items for you. 🙂 
First, a great picture of New Hampshire's Mount Washington in the background. The thick white line going up the mountain is the cog railway that we took over the summer.  If you go to Mount Washington, and I HIGHLY recommend that you do, take the Cog Railway. 


I love this video. Trees "breathing". 🙂




Winter starts in 27 days or 6 days... take your pick. 🙂 You know which choice I'm making. 🙂

We'd never know how high we are,
till we are called to rise; and then,
if we are true to plan, our statures touch the sky.

–Emily Dickinson (1830–86)


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2 hours ago, Bagsmom said:

Looks like the travel concerns for the Thanksgiving time frame disappeared!  Hooray!


Looks like just some rain for you.

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