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NorthGeorgiaWX

Tuesday, November 26

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Good Tuesday morning!

All of that pre-Thanksgiving rain is starting to fizzle away and the NWS is slowly chipping away at the probabilities across north Georgia. I suppose that's a good thing since so many are on the road heading to grandma's house. 🙂 Thanksgiving for us is going to be sunny with mild temperatures, and not exactly the image I have in my head of the perfect Thanksgiving. And since all my "pictures" have snow in them, I'm not a good person to ask about ideal Turkey Day weather. ❄️🦃

So while our Thanksgiving weather will be uneventful, it starts to get a little more interesting over the weekend.

Quote

Model guidance is continuing to come into better agreement with
respect to the system expected to impact our area this coming
weekend. Latest GFS and ECMWF solutions indicate an occluded low
pressure system moving east-southeast from the Northern Plains
towards the Ohio Valley on Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation ahead
of a strong cold front associated with this low is expected to enter
north Georgia Saturday night and advance southeastward through the
forecast area during the overnight hours and through the day Sunday.

Latest GFS is still running a bit faster than the ECMWF, with the
precipitation moving out of the area by Sunday afternoon as opposed
to early Monday morning. Instability associated with this system
appears to be even more limited than previous runs - enough to keep
thunder mention out of the forecast for now - although broad forcing
ahead of the front could still be sufficient to support very
isolated thunderstorm activity.

Low temperatures will cool to near climatological averages behind
the cold front by Monday morning, with mid 30s to low 40s
anticipated across the area. Then, with cool and breezy
northwesterly winds continuing to filter into the area through the
day, highs will be 6-10 degrees below average on Monday, ranging
from the upper 40s to mid 50s. It is possible to see some wraparound
precipitation on the backside of this system and well behind the
cold front on Monday. At this time, only low-end slight chance PoPs
are in place across far northeast Georgia, with no precipitation
accumulations expected. Will nonetheless continue to monitor the
potential for wintry precipitation in any wraparound moisture in the
cold air mass behind the front.

 

The ensembles suggest the possibility is there for a little dusting, so we'll need to watch this. Here are GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensemble mean guidance. NOT A FORECAST.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-5590400.thumb.png.3c7e17d8dae17b95e0af15404f168a20.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-5590400.thumb.png.f87b4fe80545da7a2e0ed9e547cfcd05.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-5590400.thumb.png.c3943a28ea9560ae25676af3d4ebf640.png

 

Here are some ensemble views for Blairsville. As we get close if the threat is still around, I'll be looking at other areas across north Georgia. 

gfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-4726400.thumb.png.0ab5ee82cfb2b8d6ac8a3a1999ebd5e0.pngecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-indiv_snow-4726400.thumb.png.1dcade6ee1e9e10fa8d97d62eed15a88.pnggem-all-KDZJ-winter_summary-4726400.thumb.png.7f9b2425de09a0d27403faa3101c55bf.png

 

So yea! Sometime to watch. It's not much but it's still only the end of November/first of December. 🙂 And who knows, some may even get a little accumulation. I'll keep an eye on this for you, but in the meantime, enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday!

I hope everyone has a great Tuesday!

forecast-26.png.61288e1ab7d02f4a8fc1488f62af22d6.png

 

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That GFS ensemble looks a little unrealistic compared to the Euro and Canadian. With light moisture coming from the NW the maximums should be along the Smokies, not east of them like the GEFS is showing there. 

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36 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

That GFS ensemble looks a little unrealistic compared to the Euro and Canadian. With light moisture coming from the NW the maximums should be along the Smokies, not east of them like the GEFS is showing there. 

It's probably dependent on the position of the low and the wrap around part. 

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