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NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday, November 27

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Good morning!

I feel like I've been training for Turkey Day for a week now. 🙂 

The weather is going to be great for Thanksgiving, but before we get there, a few showers are in store for us today.

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Showers moving across far NW counties at the time of this writing.
Also noting quite a few lightning pulses and even some CG strikes
with activity in AL. Have kept TSRA in Wx grids today over western
counties where low level dewpoints and MLCAPE will be marginally
favorable for convection. Even as shortwave lifts into the Great
Lakes taking forcing for precip out of the area this afternoon,
can't rule out an isolated storm over middle GA before activity
moves out after 5 or 6 PM.

Rapid clearing as the weakening front moves through the area as
subsidence from CAA aloft kicks in. Winds will gradually subside
during the night but even during the afternoon should remain below
advisory criteria. A nice sunny day for Thanksgiving with some high
clouds increasing late in the day.

 

For Saturday and Sunday...

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Latest GFS and ECMWF solutions indicate an occluded low
pressure system moving east-southeast from the Northern Plains
towards the Ohio Valley on Saturday and Sunday. Both indicate that
precipitation ahead of a strong cold front associated with this low
will enter north Georgia late Saturday and advance southeastward
through the forecast area during the overnight hours and through the
day Sunday. Likely to categorical PoPs have been maintained across
north and west Georgia Saturday night/Sunday morning and likely PoPs
are in place across east and central Georgia during the daytime
Sunday.

 

Looking a little further ahead...

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Low temperatures will cool to near climatological averages behind
the cold front by Monday morning, with 30s and low 40s anticipated
across the area. Then, with cool and breezy northwesterly winds
continuing to filter into the area through the day, highs will be
mainly 8-12 degrees below average on Monday, ranging from the upper
40s to mid 50s.
It is possible to see some wraparound precipitation
on the backside of this system in the southern Appalachians on
Sunday night into Monday morning. While only slight chance to low-
end chance PoPs are in place across far northeast Georgia, rapidly
cooling air behind the cold front will be enough for a light
rain/snow mix across the far northeastern portion of the forecast
area at that time. Will continue to monitor for any potential
changes for wintry precipitation across far north Georgia.

 

Here's a look at the ensembles for Blairsville. If anyone sees any snow it will most likely be up in this area of the mountains. 

NOT A FORECAST

gfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-4812800.thumb.png.05750e89621dbeb52f04688176d0acd9.pngecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-indiv_snow-4812800.thumb.png.a1bc5379c2ea73c38cde69c1cda07fd1.png

 

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So we wait and see how things progress over the next few days and until then, regular fall weather will be the norm for us. I hope everyone has a great day before Thanksgiving! 

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Just now, MNW said:

Gobble til you wobble ! Have a good Thanksgiving.

I'm already wobbling! 🙂 And thank you! Hope you have a great one as well! 

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