Sunday, December 1

[NorthGeorgiaWX 3,877]

Good morning and welcome to Meteorological Winter! 🙂

I know everyone is wondering about snow... of course! Here's the "official" word.

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Attention will then turn to the wintry potential for the far
northern portions on Monday. Strong upper level closed low will
move into the Mid Atlantic states and extending into the local
area. Much will depend on whether we see mostly light snow
showers or a mix across NE GA as far as accumulations go. Right
now, going with a mix for a good portion of the period which would
still yield a quarter of an inch or so in total accumulation.
Should it be primarily snow however, a half inch or maybe even a
little more on the highest peaks would be in the offing. look to
be short of advisory criteria for now but will let day shift take
a fresh look at things.

If you saw my early morning post on Facebook, 5-9" are expected on the west side of the Smoky Mountains, and possibly even more on the east side. If you REALLY want to see snow, head on up today!

Right now, Fannin, Union, Towns, and Rabun look to be the bullseye for snow, and that is mainly at the higher elevations above 2000 feet. 

NOT A FORECAST

 

I could see Blairsville getting an inch the way it looks now. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the NWS issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the top 4 counties or so.  For those that see any snow, please post pictures/videos so those of us that are left out can live vicariously through you! 🙂

I hope everyone has a great Sunday and hope you get buried in snow! 🙂 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 3,877]

Larry Cosgrove

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The ongoing weather pattern across North America may surprise many. Much like the winters of 2007-2008 and 2008-2009, the numerical models keep overstating the threat for intense cold (high-latitude blocking) or vast, long-lasting warm-ups (flat upper low with subtropical highs over Florida and Cuba). This being a classic "Amplified Yet Progressive" jet stream configuration similar to those two seasons, alternations between rapid warm-ups and shock drops in temperature will become the normal sooner rather than later. And in time, most of the cold will settle between the Continental Divide and Appalachian Mountains.

There has been much talk about "winter cancel" this week as the ECMWF and GFS weeklies abruptly abandoned colder air mass placements in the U.S. in favor of the figurative "blow torch" predictions. This is almost an expected period, as every DJFM time frame, somebody spreads a rumor that winter is over. This is usually a ludicrous comment to make, simply because the expanse of snow cover in Canada and the U.S. is probably going to be a factor. So is the neutral ENSO signal and pronounced warming across the Gulf of Alaska. I might caution that the cooling of the West Coast waters may be a hint of extensive Rex blocking and a deep closed low reappearance over the Desert and Intermountain Regions. If so, odds for snow and cold may trend more limited for the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard.

It is that powerful jet stream couplet from the equatorial Pacific Ocean and below the Aleutian Islands that warns against getting too comfortable with the idea of a mild winter. Prospects for 10MB circumpolar vortex shifts and breakdowns are also a viable clue, suggesting maybe that any warmer trends may end in middle and late December. As I see it, yet another strong "Panhandle Hooker B" type storm will organize from W TX into the lower Great Lakes and interior Northeast around December 14 - 16. Snow and cold chances will increase in the Midwest at that time. That scenario seems to work well with the SubX format on Weeks 3 and 4.
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 9:05 P.M. CT

 

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 3,877]

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 3,877]

Here's the GFS every six hours beginning 7 PM tonight. 

[Rusty 29]

Concerning Larry Cosgrove’s comparing this year’s potential setup to 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 winter seasons neither were very good here in Northeast Georgia! 07/08 +1.6 in Athens and 08/09 +1.03, however we got a beautiful, Big snowstorm in March 2009! Anyway a positive way to look at it is both years much better than the Blowtorch of last winter at +2.42! I think he may be about right this season! Anything better than the last 2-3 winter seasons!

[KingOfTheMountains 767]

Speaking from experience, events like this one tonight usually don't do anything here in Rabun unless the moisture can wrap around the base of the mountain chain and approach from the SW. Coming from the W/NW moisture rarely ever makes it this way other than maybe some flurries. But looks fairly likely that the Fannin/Union counties and surrounding areas stand a good chance of a nice little snow. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 3,877]

12 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Speaking from experience, events like this one tonight usually don't do anything here in Rabun unless the moisture can wrap around the base of the mountain chain and approach from the SW. Coming from the W/NW moisture rarely ever makes it this way other than maybe some flurries. But looks fairly likely that the Fannin/Union counties and surrounding areas stand a good chance of a nice little snow. 

Yea, Rabun can be real good or real bad... but generally not so good in a NW flow event. The area should be from Blue Ridge toward Blairsville.

[Preston 61]

1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Speaking from experience, events like this one tonight usually don't do anything here in Rabun unless the moisture can wrap around the base of the mountain chain and approach from the SW. Coming from the W/NW moisture rarely ever makes it this way other than maybe some flurries. But looks fairly likely that the Fannin/Union counties and surrounding areas stand a good chance of a nice little snow. 

You read my mind on that one! Even here in Sky Valley we rarely get more than flurries or a dusting during NW Flow events. There does seem to be a pretty good moisture fetch off the Great Lakes and some of the models have the moisture “breaking containment” from usual areas but the hi-res models don’t really depict that very much but it is a hard thing to forecast and even pick up on radar during the event sometimes. I will post if we get anything here. 

[Nic 171]

Isn't this the same setup that surprised everyone almost exactly two years ago, I believe on December 10th? Forecasted to be a dusting - 1" and ended up getting 6-8"?

Edited December 1 by Nic
Misspelling

[KingOfTheMountains 767]

26 minutes ago, Nic said:

Isn't this the same setup that surprised everyone almost exactly two years ago, I believe on December 10th? Forecasted to be a dusting - 1" and ended up getting 6-8"?

No very different unfortunately. This just a clipper type system, rarely eventful outside of a handful of favored areas. 

[KingOfTheMountains 767]

2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yea, Rabun can be real good or real bad... but generally not so good in a NW flow event. The area should be from Blue Ridge toward Blairsville.

Yeah we don't really get to cash in on these smaller events like the counties to our west, but we often have better totals in the big storms when we get southerly upslope flow, so I'll take that trade off. 

[Sara 39]

Ummmm....yikes!  Hubby and a friend went backpacking for two days in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park from Fontana Dam in a loop up to Gregory Bald and back down.  He told me they might get flurries, but this looks like inches of snow!  Now I’m kind of worried about them.

[KingOfTheMountains 767]

23 minutes ago, Sara said:

Ummmm....yikes!  Hubby and a friend went backpacking for two days in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park from Fontana Dam in a loop up to Gregory Bald and back down.  He told me they might get flurries, but this looks like inches of snow!  Now I’m kind of worried about them.

Oh wow, definitely praying for their safety. Hopefully they timed things well and got back below 4000 feet where things won't be nearly as bad, just some wet weather changing to light snow. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX 3,877]

7 hours ago, Sara said:

Ummmm....yikes!  Hubby and a friend went backpacking for two days in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park from Fontana Dam in a loop up to Gregory Bald and back down.  He told me they might get flurries, but this looks like inches of snow!  Now I’m kind of worried about them.

You need to tell them to follow here! 😉 As long as they are prepared for cold they should be fine. But it will certainly make it more rough for them. 

[Sara 39]

They ended up coming home on Monday instead of staying.  They definitely got snow, though.  I might have been a little jealous.  Hubby would have stayed another night, but his friend was struggling with the cold, so they came home early.