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NorthGeorgiaWX

Wednesday, December 4

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Good morning to all!

A few more nice days in store for us, so there isn't too much to talk about this morning. Here at the house, I ended November about 0.7º F below my nine year average and as of this morning, 0.2º F above for December. Since the December temperatures trend downward, 0.2 above the ENTIRE December average is pretty cold. 
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Here are the normal highs and lows for today

t2max_georgia_DEC04.thumb.png.4dec95280fac691e2fb8a79ecb8b9e39.pngt2min_georgia_DEC04.thumb.png.50fc09f9206910c87be4612b9ba87aa7.png

 

The middle of the month is starting to get very interesting, and the models are spitting out a lot of different solutions. This mornings 06z GFS brings a deep cutoff low down along the Gulf, and in the winter, those can be golden for us. We've been seeing a LOT of cutoff lows out over the southwest this fall, and if that trend continues into winter.... watch out. This is the 06Z (left and most recent) and 00z (right) GFS.

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There is some ensemble support for a deep trough over the east.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-6454400.thumb.png.dc80403c8b08644ac1054867909c5c09.pngecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-z500_anom-6454400.thumb.png.a6915d05133fc957686f1ab620823185.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-6454400.thumb.png.3ca847f01bc94c46dcc096ab096318f8.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-6454400.thumb.png.00d210b9aefe071863b67cfea7d71407.png

 

So we watch and wait. Kinda like watching paint dry. 🙂

I hope everyone enjoys the day and the weather! Winter is right around the corner!

forecast-04.png.5f991e5765b2f4b86cd63ce81acde90e.png

 

 

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13 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

Ummm..... euro coming in with a storm 

Around Saturday the 14th is a time period we want to watch.

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

That would not be good.

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype-6195200.thumb.png.9b05c1caa3779eb3e0a11006d9428319.png

I see nothing but power outages 

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Hopefully king Euro is starting to sniff one out. Ptypes are a mess but that's a great low track and an even better high placement/strength. I'd take my chances that it's under doing the depth of the cold. 

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I mean these 2 images are the heart of the storm.

335168966_Screenshot_20191204-1427032.thumb.png.66b6a15ab6ebe89b48f218f55de47bdf.png1905360472_Screenshot_20191204-1427162.thumb.png.f56e3078fb65d0b4166cba309e870893.png

A 1040+ high over the upper Mid-Atlantic only sliding to just off the coast over a 6 hour period. I'd have a hard time believing that even the mountains flip to ice that quickly with surface temps in mid 20s. Finishing as ice after the bulk of the precip seems more likely in that exact setup, once the low transitions off the SC coast. That being said for some places it would absolutely be an ice storm, but just not over as expansive of an area as it is showing. I mean it has ice from below Atlanta to into Virginia, which to me just doesn't seem normal with a high that strong. 

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Glenn Burns introduced this on his facebook page and said 1.25 1.50 ice for Atlanta with temps in the 20's.  Also said GFS showed rain and below freezing also on it's run....   

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1 minute ago, Asperman1 said:

So this IS something we should watch closely and prepare for?

It is something to watch right now. We're still a long way out. It could be ice, it could be snow, and it could be rain.

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1 minute ago, Wedge said:

If it's going to be in the 20s then why ice and no snow?

Assuming that is what would happen, it's because the surface temps are below freezing while the layers of the atmosphere higher up are above freezing. So rain falls and freezes on contact. Typical in a CAD event.

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6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

18Z GFS has nothing

Events wise that is kind of opposite of usual. Lol.  Usually the 18z introduces and the 00z takes it away. 

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Brad Travis said GFS was much colder than the Euro. Said it signals a pattern change more than anything. Solutions are varying.   

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I hope nothing happens, the husband and I are taking our only real vacation this year to Gaitlinburg next Thursday-Sunday so if it could wait a few days that would be great. 

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38 minutes ago, Brooke said:

I hope nothing happens, the husband and I are taking our only real vacation this year to Gatlinburg next Thursday-Sunday so if it could wait a few days that would be great. 

Awesome! Good luck! 🙂

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18 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Awesome! Good luck! 🙂

Thanks! If it does anything at least I'll get some pictures to post!

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