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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, December 5

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Good morning!

A relatively quiet morning across the country today with nothing of major interest going on. 

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Nothing major coming up until Monday/Tuesday timeframe when some very good chances for rain return to the area. Sunday will see a quick wedge building in but that only acts to keep the temperatures down a little. 

Quote

Lingering showers will be tapering off Friday night as the
aforementioned system exits eastward. By late Saturday into
Sunday, a wedge pattern will build into north Georgia as surface
high pressure moves off the New England coast. The chance for
light showers will begin to increase through the day Sunday as
southwest flow increases over the surface wedge. Temperatures
Sunday will likely be held into the low to mid 50s across north
Georgia with the wedge in place.

The wedge will erode Monday with deep southwest flow bringing a
continued chance for showers ahead of the large scale trough over
the Midwest. Temperatures Monday will also run around ten degrees
above normal.
Timing discrepancies still remain regarding the timing
of arrival of the incoming strong cold front. The GFS is more
progressive than the ECMWF with the front pushing through the
forecast area through the day Tuesday while the ECMWF is wetter and
slower. Regardless, it still is reasonable that PoPs will be
maximized on Tuesday with the arrival of the front. The potential
for rainfall totals approaching 2" in parts of far north Georgia
Monday through Tuesday remains.

At this point, any lingering showers looks to clear by Wednesday
morning with high pressure building in and bringing a significant
cooldown.

 

Remember waaaay back to yesterday and all of the internet weather world going crazy over a few model runs with ice? Yea... not so much today. Right now the models are all out of whack with different solutions/timing/amplitude/tracks/etc to the point that no one really knows what might happen next weekend. The WPC Extended Forecast Discussion has more insight to the model issues, but it still doesn't go out to next weekend. 

 

So enjoy these normal late fall/early winter days. If things go as planned, winter is going to be firing up real soon. All of the factors that say "stormy" winter are falling into place. 🙂

Thought I'd share a couple of images from a couple of my webcams this morning, one from the back looking east, and one from the front looking west. 

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This shot is for you @Tammy  😀

Have a great Thursday!

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I saw the GFS finally pick up on the ice this morning, and CMC sees winter weather but later and in the Carolinas.... still. 
 

it’s the time of year when my favorite colors grace the weather maps. I’ll be interested to see what the models pop out today...

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5 minutes ago, John said:

Have you seen the potential for major ice next week?

It's been showing up off and on. The GFS has it again in the 06Z run this morning. See image above.

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Here's the 06Z GFS this morning. 3 hour frames

NOT A FORECAST

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype_3hr-1575525600-1576281600-1576692000-80.thumb.gif.6744b21fda5f89a17e7a02317b6574fb.gif

What are the temps for this? Are they borderline? 
 

my mind is saying it’s just gonna miserable cold rain. 

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5 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

I saw the GFS finally pick up on the ice this morning, and CMC sees winter weather but later and in the Carolinas.... still. 
 

it’s the time of year when my favorite colors grace the weather maps. I’ll be interested to see what the models pop out today...

Yes, the GFS is showing what the Euro showed yesterday. They are all going to flip around for a while before they get it figured out.

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1 minute ago, LHarkins913 said:

What are the temps for this? Are they borderline? 
 

my mind is saying it’s just gonna miserable cold rain. 

Oh... it's cold enough. 😉 

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-1575525600-1576281600-1576670400-80.thumb.gif.24fed23411353a222bf6f809321bc4b8.gif

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1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Yes, the GFS is showing what the Euro showed yesterday. They are all going to flip around for a while before they get it figured out.

Of course. Flip flop is winters middle name, didn’t ya know! 😂

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Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Oh... it's cold enough. 😉 

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-1575525600-1576281600-1576670400-80.thumb.gif.24fed23411353a222bf6f809321bc4b8.gif

Ooooh. 👀 

 

*moseys out front door to nonchalantly buy a case of water or two* 

 

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I just love this time of year though. Even if this turns out to be a non event... I live for the excitement of it all. it feeds my inner weather nerd. 😂

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925 mb temps are cold as well, it's not until you get higher up where you get above freezing. I think that's one reason the GFS shows a lot of sleet in initially. Here are 925 mb temps in C.

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t925-1575525600-1576281600-1576627200-100.thumb.gif.5a222152eca065fcbe665d6baba210e8.gif

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3 minutes ago, John said:

I am flying back in on Sunday from Detroit so hopefully, the run way will be clear.

Impossible to say right now. Are you coming back this weekend or next?

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Impossible to say right now. Are you coming back this weekend or next?

Flying out next Friday and coming back Sunday. 13th to 15th.

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9 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

I just love this time of year though. Even if this turns out to be a non event... I live for the excitement of it all. it feeds my inner weather nerd. 😂

That's it. For me, it's fun to track this stuff. It's like following  little clues that may or may not lead to a treasure. 🙂 It's just fun. And yes, it can be disappointing right up until the moment the event is suppose to happen. But you have those other times when everything falls into place and those winter dreams come true. I guess here in Georgia we're always searching for that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. 🙂 

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3 minutes ago, John said:

Flying out next Friday and coming back Sunday. 13th to 15th.

Yep, too early to know. What we are looking at here may go away completely, we just won't know until the time gets closer. These are only hints at possibilities right now. 

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I went ahead and made a Home Depot run lol I won't be caught with my pants down once the unaware become aware lol 

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11 minutes ago, Nic said:

I went ahead and made a Home Depot run lol I won't be caught with my pants down once the unaware become aware lol 

That tends to be about six hours before the weather system in question moves in, from what I've observed.  :classic_laugh:

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1 minute ago, Tanith said:

That tends to be about six hours before the weather system in question moves in, from what I've observed.  :classic_laugh:

True 😄

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Wow, I think the saving grace for most would be the sleet if that setup holds. If temps actually get into the 23-25 degree range then I think the bulk of the freezing rain would be back near the transition line. In my experience you just don't often see freezing rain with temps that cold because it's usually just deep enough for sleet. And although that is good for our trees and power, it's probably worse for the roads. 2-3 inches of sleet with freezing rain on top of it will turn roads into a solid skating rink. 

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45 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Wow, I think the saving grace for most would be the sleet if that setup holds. If temps actually get into the 23-25 degree range then I think the bulk of the freezing rain would be back near the transition line. In my experience you just don't often see freezing rain with temps that cold because it's usually just deep enough for sleet. And although that is good for our trees and power, it's probably worse for the roads. 2-3 inches of sleet with freezing rain on top of it will turn roads into a solid skating rink. 

The only time I have seen freezing rain in the low-mid 20s in the mountains was on New Years Eve 2017 into 2018. It made Highway 246 between Sky Valley and Highlands and absolute skating rink but it was more a freezing drizzle rather than rain. I agree with you, with temperatures in that range sleet would be more realistic. This is just so far off and models struggling with the potential pattern change any realistic solution is days away in my opinion. I can't believe Glenn Burns and others are posting individual model runs causing a panic among some, pretty irresponsible. 

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1 minute ago, Preston said:

The only time I have seen freezing rain in the low-mid 20s in the mountains was on New Years Eve 2017 into 2018. It made Highway 246 between Sky Valley and Highlands and absolute skating rink but it was more a freezing drizzle rather than rain. I agree with you, with temperatures in that range sleet would be more realistic. This is just so far off and models struggling with the potential pattern change any realistic solution is days away in my opinion. I can't believe Glenn Burns and others are posting individual model runs causing a panic among some, pretty irresponsible. 

Yeah I'd imagine that was due to shallow moisture not reaching the height for snow growth, therefor it just fell as drizzle. We see that a lot on the backsides of the big storms too. Shallow moisture hanging around in the upslope flow not high enough to generate ice crystals. And yeah, Glenn has become a bit reckless over the last couple years it seems. 

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