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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, December 5

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And looking at that run again if we could get that look but with the track from yesterdays Euro I actually think we could score more snow and sleet than freezing rain. Cause that's not purely a CAD event on the GFS. It's got nice dual highs bridging over the top. Usually with the right track, that will deliver enough of a cold press for at least some snow, with cold being pressed down from both the NW and the NE. So at this lead time I'd say anything from just rain, to mostly ice, or even mostly snow is still in the range of possibilities. 

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12z GFS says nada this run. High pulling away to quick up North and the low placement is a smudge North as well. Ultimately less cold air to start with as well. 

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11 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah I'd imagine that was due to shallow moisture not reaching the height for snow growth, therefor it just fell as drizzle. We see that a lot on the backsides of the big storms too. Shallow moisture hanging around in the upslope flow not high enough to generate ice crystals. And yeah, Glenn has become a bit reckless over the last couple years it seems. 

I may be misguided, but it's almost as if he doesn't realize the scope and viral ability of the things he posts. Like he expects people to understand that because this is a ways out, not to get crazy. Then his post gets shared 13k times and everyone goes bonkers. It gets tiring screaming **THIS IS NOT A FORECAST** 

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16 minutes ago, Shannon said:

12z GFS says nada this run. High pulling away to quick up North and the low placement is a smudge North as well. Ultimately less cold air to start with as well. 

Yeah the low is way north on this run and the high in the NE is moving out too fast while the high over the Midwest is late. Not enough stream separation on this run. The southern stream energy gets sucked into the trough instead of holding back. The low is in New York City when at the same time on 6z it was on the Mississippi/Alabama gulf coast. 

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah the low is way north on this run and the high in the NE is moving out too fast while the high over the Midwest is late. Not enough stream separation on this run. The southern stream energy gets sucked into the trough instead of holding back. The low is in New York City when at the same time on 6z it was on the Mississippi/Alabama gulf coast. 

Yeehaw lol wow

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51 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yet 12z still gives us an ice storm 4 days later lol. All part of the fun in trying to track a storm from a week+ out. Regardless, looks like a really active weather period coming up. 

Yeah, I think we are in for a lot interesting future runs and probably some close calls in the near future.

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2 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Yeah, I think we are in for a lot interesting future runs and probably some close calls in the near future.

For sure. Looked like 3 straight possible  threats to close the GFS run. 

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

For sure. Looked like 3 straight possible  threats to close the GFS run. 

Exactly what I noticed. The initial threat that has been showing, then the new one you mentioned and another just sliding right under. 

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14 minutes ago, Nic said:

Too far out for any ensembles to mean anything? 

This is the optimal time frame for using ensembles to see if there is broad support for wintry weather or if we are just seeing noise in the main runs. I haven't looked at any yet but will definitely start tonight. 

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I just got home... need to go see what has transpired! 🙂 My wife has a stress fracture in her foot and we just got back from the doctor. She's using a hiking pole for a cane. 🙂 

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Here's the 06Z Euro ensemble, it's still running so it's this far out (next Wed). Remember, these are the mean values from 51 individual model runs. 

This is the 500 mb anomalies. Notice the deep trough over the eastern US and the little trailing blob of blue. One Euro bias is to hold back energy and it wouldn't surprise me if the trough and that little blob are eventually merged into a stronger trough at some point. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6044000.thumb.png.f641b4718a3bc4cff491175b246f8df2.png

 

These are 850 mb temps, if the ensembles are correct, the northern part of the central US will see some of the coldest temp anomalies anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-6044000.thumb.png.b1741faa41ac14c900888fc9b21d520b.png

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I hope the southern jet will stay this active come January and February cause it has just been a constant barrage since early November. If so I don't see how don't score at least one big event this winter. If we can ever actually get a Greenland block and keep these cutoff lows streaming in it should be a real fun time. 

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These Facebook posts from Glenn Burns are a comedy show! After dropping the bombshell yesterday asking folks if they were ready for an ice storm, the only thing today is "many things will change a week out" and more posts of operational models for about a week in advance 🤣

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