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NorthGeorgiaWX

Friday, December 6

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Good Friday morning!

You may be seeing a few light showers this morning as a wave of moisture comes riding through in advance of a very weak cold front. Rain will be very light, so nothing to really mess up the day.

Snap346063118.thumb.png.72971bff609a0b4297aecfab1ae5e233.png

 

Sunday will be cool as a weak wedge will be in place, so an increasing chance for showers will help to keep the temperatures down. Beginning Monday we'll start to see increasing chances for rain.
 

Quote

Sunday night into early Monday. Models show the wedge
breaking down on Monday as deep southwesterly flow continues ahead
of the arrival of a strong cold front. A large longwave trough
will push a strong cold front towards the area on Monday through
Tuesday with the arrival of the front late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. For these time periods have included likely to
categorical pops mainly across northern portions of the area.

Overall, models have come into better agreement on timing of the
front through the local forecast area but the GFS is slightly
wetter than the ECMWF
. QPF totals for Monday through Wednesday
are currently around an inch to an inch and a half across northern
Georgia with totals less than half an inch further south.
In
addition, with little to no instability with this system, have
continued to keep the precipitation as just showers. Early
Wednesday there is the slight potential for a mix of light rain
and snow on the backside of the front, but will be highly
dependent on temperatures and available moisture. This potential
will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

 

 

Ahhh... not the big ❄️ we're looking for. 🙂 

I guess you saw my post about the 1886 snow I posted this morning on FB? If not, here it is again.

Quote

December 6, 1886
A great snowstorm hit the southern Appalachian Mountains. The three day storm produced 25 inches at Rome GA, 33 inches at Asheville NC, and 42 inches in the mountains. Montgomery AL received a record eleven inches of snow. Columbia SC received one to two inches of sleet. (4th-6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

I think that we're long overdue a snow dump like this one, so I think I'll pick this year for another one. 🤪 You in?

Next weekend is the interesting time period, and yet we still don't know what might happen, but the WPC alluded to the pattern in the morning extended discussion:

30 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This may also set the tone for robust east-central U.S. upper trough amplification
to keep an eye on heading into next weekend.   

This morning the Euro brings a deep low across the southeast, and for some folks in the mountain, 5-6" of snow. It's just the operational run, so we take that with a grain of salt at the moment. Instead, we need to check out the ensembles. As you know, the Euro has 50 ensemble members and a control run and here's a look at all of them, it goes through december 21st. To be clear, this is obviously not a forecast, but it does give you an idea as to the variability in between the different ensemble members. In the perfect world, they would all look the same and would show a foot of snow over us. 😀 But the more they look the same, the greater the probability that a particular scenario might happen. 

NOT A FORECAST

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-6886400.thumb.png.ed095fa9dce1478ae60f39be3325b309.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-6886400.thumb.png.14a09f864377ee9e3dcd59349051959d.png

 

If you figure the mean of those runs, you end up with this. This is the ensemble mean.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-6886400.thumb.png.241153cf8f2bc1bdb961e336b1de3228.png

 

Again, this covers a large period and much can and will change, but it give you an idea that we are getting to a good time period for winter weather. 

While we're playing, here's an image that uses the Bering Sea Rule. This would be for December 25. This is the current forecast map for the north Pacific Ocean. Overlaid is a map of the US. The Bering Sea Rule says that in about 19 days, the general pattern you see right now over the Bering Sea may be seen over the US.  More information about the rule is here: https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/  Thanks to the Crankweatherguy for providing the information on how to create this image. 

687073772_beringsea21.thumb.png.0257969dae142b46df131b6660184cfe.png

So enjoy the weather you have today! I think the grey skies make it look and feel more like winter. ❄️🙂

Have a great Friday!

forecast-06.png.d6343d71eafd04489a13e26b0f74b46e.png

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Wow, euro really bombs that thing out lol. I certainly would prefer the more traditional route at getting snow but I gotta admit seeing that kind of dynamic cooling and rates inside a comma head band like that would be pretty cool. I guess just add that to the ever growing list of possibilities. 

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31 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

I know it is too far out to be even 1% sure, but do you think we have a chance of a White Christmas this year?

I'm not the pro here, but I certainly see a "chance". 

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1 hour ago, Asperman1 said:

I know it is too far out to be even 1% sure, but do you think we have a chance of a White Christmas this year?

There's always a "chance". But frankly we've probably already beat the odds of a lifetime by having the one we did in 2010.

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But hey I don't wanna sound like a Debby downer. The models are showing a chaotic active weather period heading into the week of Christmas. So at this juncture our odds may be better than normal, but only in the way that 0.1% is greater than 0.01%.

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

But hey I don't wanna sound like a Debby downer. The models are showing a chaotic active weather period heading into the week of Christmas. So at this juncture our odds may be better than normal, but only in the way that 0.1% is greater than 0.01%.

You have to have moisture to have snow, so active means that might be handled.  Now we just need cold to come and make a date with the moisture ...    :-)

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It seems that cold air has been disappearing each run of the models. Or at least the depth of the cold air. 

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If only we could buck this basically decade long trend of modeled - NAO never really materializing. +NAO and +AO will be one of the main reasons we probably don't see winter weather next week. Everything is moving too fast including those highs we need to keep the cold pressed down. 

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Albeit the GFS was still close to something. Really nice cold in the days leading up to the system. If that HP could just slow down by 12-24 hours then it would work. Hence why the +AO and +NAO are culprits by just allowing that HP to just scream out to sea ahead of the gulf low development. 

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56 minutes ago, Shannon said:

12z EURO is interesting. That’s a pretty strong low coming out of the gulf 

Yeah, last nights Euro exploded the low too but the track was a little better, gave some comma head snow that was the stuff of dreams for folks in the mountains. This one cuts west of the Apps. Which I hate to say it, but given the 500 mbar setup, is probably the most likely outcome without the high staying directly over top to stop it from climbing. 

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55 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

So basically December is purely hoping to thread the needle to get the timing right, which is about the norm down here anyway. January looks like a lot of cutters unless the SWA ridge ever gets beat down. February and March look like blockbuster months if they pan out as predicted, but they're also the furthest away so could be wrong. 🤞

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