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NorthGeorgiaWX

Saturday, December 7

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Good Saturday morning! 

A cloudy start to the morning as some mid level moisture moves across Georgia today. No rain for us but it will keep the skies a little grey. As high pressure shifts east tomorrow, a wedge builds into the northern part of Georgia bringing cooler temperatures and a slight chance for rain.

Quote

Surface high center sliding into New England this evening will result in
a CAD wedge building in for Sunday across the area. We can expect a
shift to cooler temps (about 10 degrees lower than Saturday across
north GA), increased easterly gradient winds, and some low level
moisture overrunning/isentropic upglide causing increased cloud
coverage and some return of afternoon shower potential in parts of
the south and west. Ascent and late shower potential could also be
aided by a weak upper shortwave.

 

The longer term starts to become more active.

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The long term period begins on Sunday night with a wedge still in
place across northeast Georgia.
As southwest flow advects moisture
over the wedge, chances for showers will continue into the early
hours on Monday. Have included slight chance pops for Sunday
afternoon with increasing chances Sunday night into Monday
afternoon, as the wedge breaks down.
A large longwave trough will
push a strong cold front towards the area on Tuesday into Wednesday
with the arrival of the front during the day on Wednesday.
Have
included chance pops across much of the area with likely pops across
portions of northern Georgia in addition to the mountains. The
highest QPF amounts for Monday through Wednesday look to be across
far northern Georgia, around 1 to 2 inches with around a half inch
or less further south
. In addition, models are showing some slight
differences on the backside of this system with the GFS showing
another shortwave trough developing and crossing the local forecast
area late Wednesday into Thursday and the ECMWF, while still showing
the shortwave trough, clears precip from the local forecast area by
Thursday and takes the trough much further south of the area.
Overall, decided to trend on the drier side for pops in this time
period, with slight chance to chance pops Wednesday afternoon and
clearing across the area on Thursday
.

Post frontal passage, high pressure will build into the area at the
surface, providing dry weather for Thursday. By Friday, chances for
precipitation will increase again as models show a developing
surface low in the Gulf moving towards the local forecast area on
Friday and Saturday.
Although models are showing some differences in
timing, have included chance pops for Friday through the early
weekend.
 

 

Here's the 7 day rainfall forecast as of now.

wpc-conus-qpf-atlanta-total_precip_inch-6324800.thumb.png.2632005105353a9815f49f9e609f5e91.png

 

If the Bering Sea Rule holds, there could be a big Gulf storm after Christmas. 🙂 Good test of the rule. 

393673280_beringsearule12-26-28-19.thumb.png.e9b19ea31855e93a55487570b1699b05.png

 

Gotta get ready for Game Day... it's a big day for college football, and UGA football... tailgate time! 
Have a GREAT Saturday!

forecast-07.png.2fc8952b7cf7f8bd9f16d13432a3b56d.png

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19 minutes ago, Nic said:

The GFS is now also saying hello.. oof.

prateptype_cat.conus.png

For now that's probably best treated as an outlier. It's like 12-18 hours faster than the previous run. Run to run differences that large shows the models just don't have a handle yet. I'd rather skip the ice anyway, so if that happens, I hope it trends colder. 

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

For now that's probably best treated as an outlier. It's like 12-18 hours faster than the previous run. Run to run differences that large shows the models just don't have a handle yet. I'd rather skip the ice anyway, so if that happens, I hope it trends colder. 

Lets hope!

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So actually looking a little closer that's not just 12-18 hours faster but keys in on a different wave entirely. It's now keying in on the initial shortwave just like the Euro was a couple days ago and has since went away from. It'll be interesting to see how they shake this out cause there is a ton of energy flying around and that tends to confuse models for longer than normal. IF, the initial shortwave can survive and not be sucked into the trough, then that dramatically increases the chances of an ice storm because it would arrive Thursday with the HP directly overtop not out to sea. But that's a big if, and a trend to watch. 

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5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yep just a cold rain. The cold air just doesn't look impressive at all there on the Euro. 

Yep. The EURO has trended warmer ever since that one 12z run earlier in the week when it showed the ice storm. 

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It has trended warmer but the models are now in somewhat of agreement.  The cold air will be available and the moisture, just timing and how the energy moves

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This one really needs to fizzle.  My college student will be coming home after finals so I hope nothing happens.  When everyone is home safe, then bring it on! 😁

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