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NorthGeorgiaWX

Sunday, December 8

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Good morning to everyone!

Our friend the wedge is starting to build in this morning, this first water vapor image show temperatures, the next one shows dewpoints. You can see the cooler and drier air moving in from North Carolina. Today will be about 10º cooler than yesterday will plenty of clouds around. Moisture in increase as the day goes one and by later this evening we should see a few upslope showers across north Georgia. The rain chances increase into Monday and Tuesday in advance of a cold front, and north Georgia could see 1-2" of rainfall before the front passes through on Wednesday.

Temperatures

Snap346063123.thumb.png.8859d87b982e9ab4aa283b5371388543.png

 

Dewpoints

Snap346063124.thumb.png.564ce9b4441377442d23943faca27f50.png

 

There will be a chance of rain all week long and into the weekend, and it's going to make for a messy week of weather. As an example.. let's look at what the Euro thinks 10 am Friday will be like. Yes... just barely above freezing with rain. You wanted winter in Georgia and there it is! 🙂 😛

Quote

Next period of interest and also with some model discrepancies is
Thursday night into Friday as overrunning moisture ahead of a
developing Gulf low could interact against a strong CAD wedge.
Some temps Friday morning are a bit warmer than before. Still
keeping some mention of possible light rain/snow mix in the far
northeast, but temps and possible wedge influence will need to be
monitored closely if any cooler trends occur that could lead to
different p-type concerns.
Otherwise maintained general chance
pops for showers Friday into the weekend with expected amplified
upper trough west of the region.

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-6249200.thumb.png.683c91d971f22114c61bad735b335c40.png

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype_3hr-6249200.thumb.png.a1ba87e35621de75a5feb5ee1dff8618.png

 

 

This is the rainfall forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.

wpc-conus-qpf-atlanta-total_precip_inch-6108800.thumb.png.50d58ea85b7efea42ab666c4e27a7acf.png

If we take that out to 7 AM Sunday, it looks like this.

wpc-conus-qpf-atlanta-total_precip_inch-6411200.thumb.png.5d0acd8e1ddfbe72b07bac2a77af5c72.png

 

Be happy we have moisture around, all we need now is a little colder air and we'll be in business. I think winter is shaping up to be a good one!

Have a great Sunday!

forecast-08.png.71cb82f0719f5f909626ccdd9ee53aab.png

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Larry Cosgrove

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One of the key aspects of the most recent numerical model forecasts is the growing, deepening nature of the snowpack across Canada through the northern and western U.S. Snowpack is a refrigerant and major contributor to generation of Arctic air, and I think there will be two pulsations of the coldest values through the central and eastern thirds of the nation, at the start and end of the medium range. The strength and scope of cyclogenesis is extremely important through the 6 - 10 day time frame. If, for instance, low pressure is diffuse over the south and east portions of the country, then penetration of cAk values into the lower 48 states will be minor. The remnant ridging over Alaska and the Yukon Territory may prove critical to keeping colder profiles in play, mostly over the northern two-thirds of the country.

Threat For Major Winter Storm Along Southern, Eastern Tiers Of The U.S. Next Weekend

While some of the numerical models appear to have "lost" the genesis of a strong storm in the Gulf States, I would caution the potential for an above-average intensity cyclone remains High. The GGEM series appears to have the best handle on the formation, path, and intensity of low pressure from LA or MS into MA, ME, and NS in the December 13 - 17 time frame. I will caution snow enthusiasts living along the Interstate 95 corridor that this feature does NOT appear to be pegged as a prominent frozen type precipitation producer to the right of the Appalachian Mountains. The track scenario will most likely be inland from GA into the Northeast. Therefore, best snow potential should be in the lower Great Lakes. It may well be that strong thunderstorms and torrential rainfall will be the biggest concerns along the Eastern Seaboard. Wind could also rise to be a problem with the passage of this system, and the flow behind the departing disturbance may yield an "end change" to some snow or flurries over higher elevations.

 

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With the start of calendar winter now less than two weeks away, the definitive signs of how the DJFM season will turn out are shaping up. The lack of stable blocking at the higher latitudes tells us volumes about the character of the entire low sun period. If you do NOT see long-lasting closed ridging in the -EPO, -AO, -NAO period by this point in time, then your winter will likely not be an all-time extreme for cold temperatures. But systems that would favor a warmer pattern are lacking as well. No "Southeast Ridge", no semizonal split flow with a stronger southern branch (an "El Nino" scenario, you may recall), and no long-lasting Gulf of Alaska Low. What we have is a progressive 500MB configuration that is often highly amplified. Recent examples of this type of alignment are 2003-04, 2007-08, and 2008-09.

So in terms of probable temperature and precipitation outlay, there will be some impressive cold intrusions, but not something that will stay in any one section of the country for more than two or three days. The sharp pushes of Arctic air that occur in the coming week and before Christmas may be quite memorable. But in both cases, give way to surges of warmer air. So far the thermal anomaly pattern is leaning heavily in the direction of the analog computation. That is, warmer western 2/3 of the nation, colder than average to the right of the Mississippi River. This set-up likely will reverse in the week before Christmas, when many in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard see a jump in readings well above seasonal normals.

Snow has been piling up steadily across northern and western section of the country will be inching southward. But as many of the storms seen so far in the U.S. have taken tracks just north or west of the coastlines, the cities along the Interstate 10, 20 and 95 corridors may be disappointed about snowfall potential. Note that in the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day forecasts, the upper trough positions keeps falling between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia. Loosely translated: Chicago will be cold, Dallas might be chilly. Philadelphia veers into the Arctic values from time to time. But if you want generous snow amounts, visit the Midwest often, and maybe try the higher elevations across the Intermountain Region and Black Hills.

If you do not like this kind of outlook, the ECMWF series has lurched colder, and is a good match for the SubX format predictions posted here. The CFS series, while still lost in a warm haze, have trended to lower temperatures overall. The best odds on accumulating snow will probably not get into the Dixie or Eastern Seaboard states until the stretch from the last half of January through the first half of March. I strongly accept the notion of a rapid national warming and onset of La Nina (neutral positive ENSO as of now....) in April.

So if you get a nice shot from the cAk domain, or find yourself in a blizzard, sit back and smile and remember that you will likely be complaining about the heat fairly quickly next spring!
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, December 8, 2019 at 1:20 P.M. CT

 

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1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good morning to everyone!

Our friend the wedge is starting to build in this morning, this first water vapor image show temperatures, the next one shows dewpoints. You can see the cooler and drier air moving in from North Carolina. Today will be about 10º cooler than yesterday will plenty of clouds around. Moisture in increase as the day goes one and by later this evening we should see a few upslope showers across north Georgia. The rain chances increase into Monday and Tuesday in advance of a cold front, and north Georgia could see 1-2" of rainfall before the front passes through on Wednesday.

Temperatures

Snap346063123.thumb.png.8859d87b982e9ab4aa283b5371388543.png

 

Dewpoints

Snap346063124.thumb.png.564ce9b4441377442d23943faca27f50.png

 

There will be a chance of rain all week long and into the weekend, and it's going to make for a messy week of weather. As an example.. let's look at what the Euro thinks 10 am Friday will be like. Yes... just barely above freezing with rain. You wanted winter in Georgia and there it is! 🙂 😛

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-6249200.thumb.png.683c91d971f22114c61bad735b335c40.png

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype_3hr-6249200.thumb.png.a1ba87e35621de75a5feb5ee1dff8618.png

 

 

This is the rainfall forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.

wpc-conus-qpf-atlanta-total_precip_inch-6108800.thumb.png.50d58ea85b7efea42ab666c4e27a7acf.png

If we take that out to 7 AM Sunday, it looks like this.

wpc-conus-qpf-atlanta-total_precip_inch-6411200.thumb.png.5d0acd8e1ddfbe72b07bac2a77af5c72.png

 

Be happy we have moisture around, all we need now is a little colder air and we'll be in business. I think winter is shaping up to be a good one!

Have a great Sunday!

forecast-08.png.71cb82f0719f5f909626ccdd9ee53aab.png

So hope we get some winter weather soon

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I saw Allan Huffman tweet no confidence in any wintry weather for N Car and S Car unless something should change in the models. He said maybe AFTER Christmas 

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Let's all remember 2 years ago today lol this was NE of Mineral Bluff in Fanning County. 

received_2457876317864809.jpeg

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34 minutes ago, Nic said:

Let's all remember 2 years ago today lol this was NE of Mineral Bluff in Fanning County. 

received_2457876317864809.jpeg

 

And in 2010 I hit 16 degrees for a low on this date.

Snap346063126.png.8a8a3545198a094269cff30e733994ea.png

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December 8, 1989
A winter storm spread snow and freezing rain across much of the Atlantic Coast Region, from Georgia to New Jersey. Snowfall totals ranged up to seven inches, at Stanton VA and Tobacco MD. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the mountains of northern Georgia. More than one hundred auto accidents were reported in Gwinnett County GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
 

 

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I gotta admit, after only getting snow in December the last 2 years, watching the potential for this month start to fade has got me nervous yet again. It's not the cold I'm worried about, we will always get shots of cold in the winter months. It's the mean troughs tendency to set up too far west going on 3 straight years, causing every single system to cut too far inland. I'm hopeful, but generally pessimistic lol.

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5 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

 

I strongly believe that Larry Cosgrove is spot on with his prediction of our winter season going forward! I think our extreme hot dry September and early October may be a sign where we are heading towards a strong La Niña which would translate to potential for severe drought and heat next summer or maybe the next couple years! And of course torch in the winter seasons! 2007/08 and 2008/09 were not good winters here in Georgia especially 07/08! We did have a Great snowstorm in Athens area in early March 2009 however!!! I guess we need to treasure every cold snap we get this winter season and of course any winter precipitation, because after this season we go into a strong La Niña it may be awhile before we get the opportunity again! Just Saying!

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