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NorthGeorgiaWX

Monday, December 9

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Good Monday morning!

Let's get right to it!

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Main concern remains at the start of the fcst period for any
possible rain to snow transition with cold air interacting on the
back side of the precipitation late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday
. Progged thermal sounding analysis does indicate
possible enhanced snow growth with a few hours of
saturation/slight lapse rate increasing in the dendritic growth
zone so decided to include mention that some accumulations mainly
under a half inch cannot be ruled out in the far NW higher
ridgetop elevations.
Will need to watch trends more closely here
as short term guidance will start picking up this period.

GFS is starting to trend closer to the Euro now for a more
progressive fropa Wednesday and now weighing in for more SW
confined pops in the afternoon. Raised some chance to likely pops
late Thursday into Saturday
with an amplifying longwave trough
west of the area and increased moisture advection. Still need to
watch some possible upglide against a strong CAD wedge for early
Friday if any mixed p-type potential exists...for now looks a bit
too warm but still holding onto some isolated rain/snow mix in the
far NE.

 

Can you say active period? Close calls? The Euro operational is the most bullish at the moment but the GFS ensemble is right there with it.

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-6137600.thumb.png.141e77c81e59dac968647db58a3086aa.pngecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype-6065600.thumb.png.fab1a8dfa9a9814151df4bc9b49d58be.pnggfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-5849600.thumb.png.8cded8d16eabb1ac02d8ee385abce892.png

 

And that's just this week. 🙂 The weekend is a totally different system that we'll need to watch. If you read the morning Extended Forecast Discussion from the WPC, you'll notice how the models have widely varying solutions right now, so before we start looking too closely, we need to wait a day or three and see how things evolve. 

 

As long as we can keep the rain train going, our winter weather chances rise up a little bit. Can I get a "Rise Up!". 🙂 

I hope everyone has a great Monday and a great work week. Hang in there teachers.... you're break is coming soon! 

forecast-09.png.e4c83798e5e8a288df1d83293fd4ece6.png

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I have a hard time believing that we are getting to 64 in Acworth today. WAY too cold and windy outside.

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34 minutes ago, John said:

I have a hard time believing that we are getting to 64 in Acworth today. WAY too cold and windy outside.

The models are always eroding the wedge too fast. You are probably correct.

Snap346063130.png.a81d68376c683dcc504752d1cde67608.png

 

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1 hour ago, Nic said:

What are the increments in which the NAM's run?  

On Weatherbell the twm NAM's run at these times. The last column is the next local runtime.

 

Snap346063132.png

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Here's a good page to check to see the status of the US model runs. Scroll around until you find what's currently running, unless there are issues they are highlighted in green. The weather companies like Weatherbell, weathermodels,com, Pivotal Weather, Tropical Tidbits etc, then retrieve the data and generate maps.

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

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If the NAM is to be believed at this range, then the threat for ice is probably slightly higher than currently shown on the globals. These are dew points as the precip is moving in.

namconus_Td2m_seus_52.thumb.png.edab3afe9c1ca173001a02bab5f91fd4.png

With the high sliding out to sea the warm air advection would still win out and change everything over to rain. But this could make the difference in seeing a fast transition or potentially advisory level ice before, so it bears watching. 

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23 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

If the NAM is to be believed at this range, then the threat for ice is probably slightly higher than currently shown on the globals. These are dew points as the precip is moving in.

namconus_Td2m_seus_52.thumb.png.edab3afe9c1ca173001a02bab5f91fd4.png

With the high sliding out to sea the warm air advection would still win out and change everything over to rain. But this could make the difference in seeing a fast transition or potentially advisory level ice before, so it bears watching. 

Noticed this as well this morning. I was gonna wait until the 18z came out to mention but the 12z EURO also had some pretty low dew points as well.

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2 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

If the NAM is to be believed at this range, then the threat for ice is probably slightly higher than currently shown on the globals. These are dew points as the precip is moving in.

namconus_Td2m_seus_52.thumb.png.edab3afe9c1ca173001a02bab5f91fd4.png

With the high sliding out to sea the warm air advection would still win out and change everything over to rain. But this could make the difference in seeing a fast transition or potentially advisory level ice before, so it bears watching. 

And the 18z NAM is still borderline. A balmy 33 degree rain haha  

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Quote

We may see some freezing or frozen precipitation mainly
across North GA. Right now we are only looking at accumulations of
up to an inch or less with the highest accumulation mainly on
surfaces above 2000ft.
 

 

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The CAD really hung in there today. I was suppose to have a high of 63, my high was at midnight at 47. Most of the day and even now, I've been at 45 degrees. Relentless.

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23 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The CAD really hung in there today. I was suppose to have a high of 63, my high was at midnight at 47. Most of the day and even now, I've been at 45 degrees. Relentless.

Basically the same exact numbers here in Buford. 

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