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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, December 12

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Good Thursday morning!

Everyone is starting off a little chilly this morning! Must be that thick snowpack we have. 😜

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Not a bad start to the weather for today, but that will be changing this afternoon.

Quote

Mainly clear skies and dry conditions will prevail through at least
the first half of the day today. In addition, high pressure building
down the Appalachians will lead to a wedge in portions of north and
eastern Georgia. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough currently moving
through the southern plains will be approaching the local forecast
area later tonight. As moisture is advected into the area from south
to north this afternoon and evening, cloud cover will increase in
addition to chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm.
Showers are expected to become more widespread by the evening and
continue through the overnight hours into Friday. Late tonight,
there is a small window where the potential exists for isolated
areas of the northeastern mountains to see brief, light freezing
rain. At this point, little to no impacts are expected as
significant accumulations aren't expected before any freezing rain
transitions to all rain
.

Friday is expected to be a cloudy and rainy day as showers are
expected continue through the afternoon and evening.
Mainly showers
are expected across the area as instability is limited, but an
isolated thunderstorm still isn't out of the question during the day
on Friday as the surface low in the Gulf quickly pushes northeast
across the area any thunderstorms that do occur may have periods of
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Overall, rainfall amounts from this
evening through early Saturday are around 1 to 2 inches across
central and eastern Georgia, with totals under an inch across the
rest of the area.

  • With mostly clear skies expected through much of the day today, high temperatures will warm to the 40's across the northeast mountains with 50's elsewhere. 
  • Lows overnight tonight will be in the lower 30's in on the mountain ridges with 30s and lower 40s across the rest of the area. 
  • As precipitation continues with overcast skies on Friday, high temperatures will be just a couple degrees cooler than today with highs in the 40s across northern Georgia with 50s across central Georgia.

 

WPC 7 day rainfall. Most of the models agree, the GFS is a little less. 

wpc-conus-qpf-atlanta-total_precip_inch-6756800.thumb.png.1d7bc940e045525b259dd89b1c9901f5.png

 

I would take anything 7 days out with a grain of salt right now.:-)

Quote

The primary trough will be pushing into the forecast area Friday
night into Saturday morning as the northern Gulf of Mexico surface
low lifts northeast across southern/southeastern Georgia. Widespread
rainfall can be expected at least through the first half of the
night, though coverage should diminish form west to east through
Saturday morning as the trough axis swings northeastward.
Based on
the expected track of the surface low, slight chance thunder was
introduced for the southern reaches of the CWA where sufficient
instability will be relegated. At this time, the warm sector will
likely primarily be limited south and east of the CWA where SPC
has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk that brushes our far
southeast counties. However, an isolated strong thunderstorm with
gusty winds cannot be ruled out in these far southeast counties.
Rain will largely come to an end for most of the area Saturday
with the exception of a few lingering showers possible in far
north Georgia.

Sunday will be bring dry and mild conditions as upper flow becomes
zonal ahead of the next wave that will be swinging eastward into the
Plains by Monday morning. This will lead to the development of the
next surface low and associated cold front that will begin to
approach the area by Monday. The ECMWF supports earlier precip
arrival with showers increasing especially for north Georgia through
Monday afternoon and evening. The cold front will push through the
area through the day Tuesday with with high PoPs concentrated as the
front progresses southeastward. As PWs increase to around/over 1.5",
healthy rainfall totals over 1-1.5" are forecast, specifically in
north Georgia.

The cold front will sweep east of the area by Tuesday night with
surface high pressure bringing dry and cooler conditions midweek
next week.
 

 

We're in a very progressive non-amplified pattern right now, so expect frequent systems bringing us chances of rain. Until some blocking pattern takes hold, and the expectations are that it will, we will remain in this unsettled pattern through at least Christmas. 

Enjoy this Thursday! It will be a few days before it's this nice again! 🙂

Have a great day!

forecast-12.png.53b994969ddadf561f6ed061c2f015e8.png

 

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The Pacific firehose is open. +EPO's are never good during the winter. Looks like a little dip negative, backup a little, and then "maybe" some negative coming. 

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ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-6108800.thumb.png.aa28bccf6dcc501647818eceda2e50b5.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-epo-box-6130400.thumb.png.090a7b4bc85a46b0371406184cb8a97e.png

 

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3 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

The Pacific firehose is open. +EPO's are never good during the winter. Looks like a little dip negative, backup a little, and then "maybe" some negative coming. 

Snap346063163.thumb.png.270315145adc374de12ebae71fcc3d7f.png

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-6108800.thumb.png.aa28bccf6dcc501647818eceda2e50b5.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-epo-box-6130400.thumb.png.090a7b4bc85a46b0371406184cb8a97e.png

 

What does this mean?

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17 hours ago, Christine said:

What does this mean?

It means that as long as that is happening, we can't get locked into any cold weather. It's all hit and run type stuff when there is no amplification.

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46 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

It means that as long as that is happening, we can't get locked into any cold weather. It's all hit and run type stuff when there is no amplification.

And this is going to happen?? 😭😭😭

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1 minute ago, Christine said:

And this is going to happen?? 😭😭😭

It is happening right now. That's one reason for the frequent bouts of rain that we're having.

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