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NorthGeorgiaWX

Saturday, December 14

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Good Saturday morning and welcome to the weekend!

Not a bad weekend in store now that the rain has pushed out. Did you get much in your backyard? Many areas had anywhere from 1-4" with the heavier amounts a little further south. Here's the radar estimated rainfall totals. 

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While the rain may be over for now, there is more on the way.

Quote

While showers will be possible in far north Georgia as early as
Monday morning, the most substantial increase in widespread rainfall
will be from Monday evening in northwest Georgia spreading
southeastward through Monday night and Tuesday as the cold front
sweeps across the area
.
The most favorable overlap of instability
and shear, and thus the higher risk for severe thunderstorms,
will be to our west in Mississippi/Alabama Monday
. Surface CAPE
will begin to diminish to some extent ahead of the front Monday
night into Tuesday morning. With that being said, even a few
hundred J/kg of SBCAPE amid substantial shear would support some
risk for isolated severe thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday
morning
.
SPC has thus included much of the western half of the
CWA in a Marginal risk outlook for severe thunderstorms during
this time. Additionally, there will also be the threat for locally
heavy rainfall as PWs increase to near or above 1.5" ahead of the
front.

The cold front will push fairly quickly through the CWA through the
day Tuesday and clear the eastern counties by late in the day.
Strong cold air advection behind the front will bring significantly
cooler temperatures by Wednesday morning with freezing temperatures
making a return for much of the area. Below normal temperatures will
persist Wednesday, and subfreezing lows appear likely areawide by
Thursday morning.
Dry conditions will persist through at least
Thursday, though model solutions begin to diverge thereafter.

 

Here's a look at the severe outlook.

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And here's a look at the additional rainfall we'll have through 7 pm Tuesday.

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I wanted to show you this. We are now in one of the quietest solar years in a century. 

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The year now has surpassed the 2008, 2009 sunspotless totals that had them in 4th and 5th place since 1850. It should be noted that our ability to see the smallest spots or pores now with modern technology make it possible we are nearer or at the top.

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Low solar winters are cold and stormy. Think 2009-2010. Speaking of that period... on this date in 2010 I set two records here at the house. I set a record low high temperature of 32.0º F and a record low low temperature of 13.1º F, and both of those records still stand. 

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Again, not a bad weekend with relatively tranquil weather. Time to get out and get that Christmas shopping done! We're in the "12 Days of Christmas" countdown! 🙂

Have a great Saturday!

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At my place in 2010 in this date I had a low of 13 and a high of 35! Christmas of 2010 we recorded 3 inches of snow at my location 5.5 miles Southeast of Athens Ben Epps Airport! A once in a lifetime event for Northeast Georgia outside of the mountains! Recorded a total of 2.80 inches of rainfall for this rainfall event! Much needed for the thirsty ground!

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1 hour ago, Rusty said:

At my place in 2010 in this date I had a low of 13 and a high of 35! Christmas of 2010 we recorded 3 inches of snow at my location 5.5 miles Southeast of Athens Ben Epps Airport! A once in a lifetime event for Northeast Georgia outside of the mountains! Recorded a total of 2.80 inches of rainfall for this rainfall event! Much needed for the thirsty ground!

Nice!

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Continuing to monitor the potential for severe storms as there's
definitely a window of opportunity Monday night/early Tuesday, where
the combination of low level wind shear (40-50kts), marginal
instability (plus dewpts in the lower-mid 60s), and synoptic-scale
forcing all come together ahead of sharp NE-SW oriented cold front.
SPC's Day 3 Convective Outlook (for Monday-Monday night) has a
fairly broad SLIGHT risk area from the TX/LA border across LA, MS
and AL with surrounding MARGINAL risk area getting into western GA.
Suspect there will be subtle adjustments to these risk areas over
the next couple days as system evolves and approaches.

1491683899_GA_swody3(1).png.c585a515facc213ec611112976444b75.png

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13 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Ugh... The GFS is just teasing me right now. I had already written off the rest of this month so I don't wanna see goofus trying to reel me back in lol

🙂 A pre Christmas snow would be nice! 

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Numerical model approaches show no true Arctic intrusions through Week 4. But then again, I do not see any examples of the classic "blowtorch" periods that the European model group has become notorious for in autumn (calendar winter comes next weekend....). There probably will be a broad trough over the middle of the nation, and I would not be surprised to see a colder regime take over in the time just before New Year's Day. The neutral/positive ENSO signal and mostly warm eastern Pacific Ocean would seem to be favorable for a colder turn in later January. The 500MB analog depiction has a fairly strong height depression off of the Northeast coast, so those of you looking for a "real winter" event (with important cold and snowfall) still have hope. But mostly after the first week of January.
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 10:00 P.M. CT

 

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