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NorthGeorgiaWX

Tuesday, December 31

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Good morning!

A couple more days of bland weather before our next system arrives beginning Thursday. Looking at the lower 48 this morning, you see the storm that brought some severe freezing rain to the northeast exiting right, while our next weathermaker over the southwest starts its eastward trek across the country. 

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Quote

The next storm system will begin to move in on Thursday as a
longwave trough moves over the western CONUS, and southwest flow
from the Southeast brings a large fetch of moisture into the
forecast area. Clear skies will turn mostly cloudy and a shield
of precip will move primarily into northern Georgia as moisture
overrides a warm front. A surface low is then forecast to form
and move across the forecast area Friday morning, pushing a cold
front through behind it. Instability will be limited but a slight
chance of thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon.
However, the main concern will be rainfall accumulations, with the
majority of the forecast area expected to receive 1-2 inches of
rain with 1.5-3" possible for far North Georgia. Locally high
amount will be possible where rain bands set up for prolonged
periods of time. The primary period of heavier rain will be from
Thursday morning until Saturday morning
. As the low pressure exits
the area, some wrap around light rain showers will be possible
for north Georgia on Saturday with a chance for some very light
snow flurries in far north Georgia and in the higher elevations
late Saturday night.

Dry conditions are then expected for the rest of the forecast
period but the weather pattern is unsettled towards next Monday
and Tuesday as forecast models diverge.

 

Here's the WPC rainfall forecast through 7 PM Saturday. 

wpc-atlanta-total_precip_inch-8182400.thumb.png.d312cab931bf361499d0c62b500bbfc2.png

 

The Euro, GFS, and Canadian are showing a chance for some very light snow across the north Georgia mountains late Saturday, so some of you may get to see a dusting. The Euro ensembles aren't as excited as the deterministic run, but the GFS has some ensemble support. The Euro is more gung ho about next week than the GFS though, and that's the one that holds my interest.

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype-8171600.thumb.png.bdfc5db565cde0fc4a890686e8efb7e3.pngecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype-8171600.thumb.png.65f154f869f95b57c8cb005cb9be81cd.pnggem-all-atlanta-instant_ptype-8171600.thumb.png.bd5c37dd85c400cf098a652add635480.png

 

We'll let next week simmer for another day or two and we'll come back and revisit. There is too much variability in the models at this distance to hone in on anything specific right now. Just to give you an idea, here are the Euro ensemble members.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-9046400.thumb.png.9c9175606d6c25e4140a9ea86a777dfd.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-8592800.thumb.png.4b5bd091588f315066a4d645bcf615a8.png

 

While we're talking about winter weather, on this date in 1962.

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In the meantime, enjoy the mild dry weather, it will be coming to a wet end on Thursday! 
Have a great day!

forecast-31.png.487ed9ad3d216a35dffba99e10c6bf33.pngSnap346063297.png.07c9deb89bd09419f992099fa6c3d366.png

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My location hasn't had a bona fide ice storm (where freezing rain falls from the sky and coats trees and power lines) since 1999-2000.  (I know that date because I was hugely pregnant.  I think it was Jan or Feb 2000.)

I keep thinking we are due for one, but I'm happy to put it off as long as possible!

Edited by Bagsmom
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Speaking of that northeast storm... as promised... I have photos!  I am with my parents in the northern end of the Lakes Region, near Moultonborough.  This was a tricky storm.  We had 90% snow here, but there were definite periods of rain, ice, sleet, and I don't even know what else spewing out of the sky.  

Some photos ... first, pre-storm!  Little bit of snow on the ground in shady, cool places.  Second pic is how we woke up yesterday morning, roughly the same view!  Third is a view from the back - note the second-growth forest (shorter, thinner, different trees than we have in Georgia where the conditions send trees soaring for the skies in few years) and the pre-colonial rock wall.  In the quieter, pastoral parts of the world up here, these are everywhere and very old.  This particular wall is on-and-off home to weasels, which will have their white winter coats on now.  You almost never see them but you will see their tracks in the snow.  You can sometimes follow the tracks into the field uphill and find where they catch something.

Fourth - snow is great to look at, but better to play in!  This kind of sled crash is what we call a 'yard sale' because of everyone and everything strewn across the landscape.

Finally, snow's winding down this morning and the temp is rising a bit, but this frames what we got - for where we are, this is a routine storm and we'd see several of these in a winter.

Happy New year to all of you, I am grateful for this site, and I hope to bring just enough of this back home to Georgia with me!  

NH1.jpg

NH2.jpg

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NH5.jpg

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We'll see what tomorrow's Day 2 and Day 3 look like. Right now the NW corner of the state is in a "Marginal Risk" area. The image below explains what that means in the legend.

99ewbg.gif.cf46655f158ddd5b2f176e782151fc96.gif

Quote

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2019
 
Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 02 2020 - 12Z Fri Jan 03 2020 

  • THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES AND EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY

There is an increasing signal for a widespread, moderate to heavy 
rainfall event to unfold from the central Gulf Coast to areas 
north and east into the Tennessee Valley and the Appalachians. 
Multiple pieces of guidance are painting a swath of 2 to 4 inches 
across this region will local maximums near/over 5 inches.
There 
will be a large region of synoptic ascent with an intense upper 
level jet of 170+ kts ahead of the trough entering the 
south-central U.S. A southwesterly low-level jet of 30 to 50 kts 
will transport Gulf moisture northward
into the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, Gulf Coast and Southeast states and pool ahead of frontal 
system lifting north. Bands of moderate to heavy rainfall is 
expected from Louisiana to West Virginia with rain rates likely 
exceeding 0.50 inch/hour. 

Portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians have 
had recent rains that have lowered the FFGs to as low as 0.75/1.0 
inches. The forecast areal averages of 2 to 4 inches over this 
region will exceed guidance and will likely lead to flash flooding 
conditions.
A Slight Risk area was introduced from northeast 
Louisiana to south-central Tennessee, where the best alignment of 
available moisture, forcing and instability will setup. A Marginal 
Risk spans from Louisiana to southern Kentucky and western North 
Carolina.

Campbell

 

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2 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

Speaking of that northeast storm... as promised... I have photos!  I am with my parents in the northern end of the Lakes Region, near Moultonborough.  This was a tricky storm.  We had 90% snow here, but there were definite periods of rain, ice, sleet, and I don't even know what else spewing out of the sky.  

Some photos ... first, pre-storm!  Little bit of snow on the ground in shady, cool places.  Second pic is how we woke up yesterday morning, roughly the same view!  Third is a view from the back - note the second-growth forest (shorter, thinner, different trees than we have in Georgia where the conditions send trees soaring for the skies in few years) and the pre-colonial rock wall.  In the quieter, pastoral parts of the world up here, these are everywhere and very old.  This particular wall is on-and-off home to weasels, which will have their white winter coats on now.  You almost never see them but you will see their tracks in the snow.  You can sometimes follow the tracks into the field uphill and find where they catch something.

Fourth - snow is great to look at, but better to play in!  This kind of sled crash is what we call a 'yard sale' because of everyone and everything strewn across the landscape.

Finally, snow's winding down this morning and the temp is rising a bit, but this frames what we got - for where we are, this is a routine storm and we'd see several of these in a winter.

Happy New year to all of you, I am grateful for this site, and I hope to bring just enough of this back home to Georgia with me!  

NH1.jpg

NH2.jpg

NH3.jpg

NH4.jpg

NH5.jpg

THAT is friggin awesome! 🙂 Man... is my invitation still open? 🙂

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5 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

Speaking of that northeast storm... as promised... I have photos!  I am with my parents in the northern end of the Lakes Region, near Moultonborough.  This was a tricky storm.  We had 90% snow here, but there were definite periods of rain, ice, sleet, and I don't even know what else spewing out of the sky.  

Some photos ... first, pre-storm!  Little bit of snow on the ground in shady, cool places.  Second pic is how we woke up yesterday morning, roughly the same view!  Third is a view from the back - note the second-growth forest (shorter, thinner, different trees than we have in Georgia where the conditions send trees soaring for the skies in few years) and the pre-colonial rock wall.  In the quieter, pastoral parts of the world up here, these are everywhere and very old.  This particular wall is on-and-off home to weasels, which will have their white winter coats on now.  You almost never see them but you will see their tracks in the snow.  You can sometimes follow the tracks into the field uphill and find where they catch something.

Fourth - snow is great to look at, but better to play in!  This kind of sled crash is what we call a 'yard sale' because of everyone and everything strewn across the landscape.

Finally, snow's winding down this morning and the temp is rising a bit, but this frames what we got - for where we are, this is a routine storm and we'd see several of these in a winter.

Happy New year to all of you, I am grateful for this site, and I hope to bring just enough of this back home to Georgia with me!  

NH1.jpg

NH2.jpg

NH3.jpg

NH4.jpg

NH5.jpg

Is that Lake Winnipesaukee or Squam Lake we're looking at?

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Yes, just let me know when you're on your way! 

The lake cabin is closed until the spring, but the big house has a generator, satellite internet, and an in-law above the garage.  My dad has installed a weather station on the shed and I'm looking at its data later this afternoon, after he finishes snow-blowing the driveway...

Another fun event here you might appreciate is ice-out.  Some of the smaller lakes have already frozen, but Winnipesaukee won't freeze over until mid-January.  Once it does, people will haul ice fishing houses onto the lake, and there's an ice fishing derby mid February.  Someone on one of the smaller lakes already drove a truck out onto the ice before it was thick enough and the truck went through the ice and sank.  

Anyway, ice-out is fantastic ... there's a magic day in April (usually) where the ice cracks all at once into thousands of smaller sheets and bergs and makes a series of cracks loud enough to echo.  It takes some commitment to catch it and mostly you just have to be lucky, but ... fun artifact of the conditions here.

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That's Winnipesaukee, from the northern end of the lake.  Big Squam (famous for the setting of On Golden Pond) is about 20 minutes away, and Little is attached through a channel.  My great aunt used to have 300 yards of frontage and two cement piers on Little Squam ... and the craziest, most rambling house over it you have ever seen.  Closets full of bats, antiques, and moonshine (yes we do it here, too).

Somewhere out there on the Internet, there are ice clocks for Squam, live tracking when you can go out on the ice and the time until ice out.  The old Squam people are serious about the lakes.

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14 minutes ago, Mudrun said:

That's Winnipesaukee, from the northern end of the lake.  Big Squam (famous for the setting of On Golden Pond) is about 20 minutes away, and Little is attached through a channel.  My great aunt used to have 300 yards of frontage and two cement piers on Little Squam ... and the craziest, most rambling house over it you have ever seen.  Closets full of bats, antiques, and moonshine (yes we do it here, too).

Somewhere out there on the Internet, there are ice clocks for Squam, live tracking when you can go out on the ice and the time until ice out.  The old Squam people are serious about the lakes.

I was just reading about this....

https://www.rdcsquam.com/rdc-annual-ice-harvest/

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1 hour ago, TheSimpleMan said:

Do we have any hopes for this Saturday? Chris Holcomb posted some "possible" snowfall maps yesterday. 

Depends on where you are located from what i have seen. If you are in the higher elevations of the North Georgia Mountains, there is a chance of seeing at most a dusting the way it looks right now. However, outside of the mountains it looks too warm for anything, maybe a few flurries if things timed out just right for the MAYBE the north Metro and valley locations in the mountains. Just my thoughts from what I have seen so far and how these type of scenarios usually work out. 

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2 hours ago, TheSimpleMan said:

Do we have any hopes for this Saturday? Chris Holcomb posted some "possible" snowfall maps yesterday. 

Whatever falls "should" be light, although the GFS has a 2" bullseye over the Blairsville area 

The first two are the deterministic runs, the last three are ensembles, 

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-8225600.thumb.png.a92104f81acdcc4e1564d853a69d40ab.pnggfs-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-8204000.thumb.png.dcd4503a4025b5a90cd94166c93524c7.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-8268800.thumb.png.ba649dd67e0811e73a4e58b709bf9d69.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-8268800.thumb.png.1462d3640bf099537502265ca725d8d5.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-8268800.thumb.png.dd3573a402c6abb32ce482ff4382973a.png

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