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NorthGeorgiaWX

Tuesday, January 14

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Good Tuesday morning!

Hope everyone had a great day yesterday. i hope you watched that football games last night! Wow, what a team!

Guess what? YES! Rain! There is a weak line of thunderstorms headed our way, and embedded in that is a LOT of lightning.

Snap346063450.thumb.png.8959260761a0fb053bbf9dd5a7a0603b.png

Snap346063447.thumb.png.463381e60f819b140e8a84a8a9dbd8df.png

 

No severe weather for us today, there's just not enough instability to make a big storm. 

Quote

Wet conditions are expected to remain through the short term
period, with a stationary frontal boundary remaining stalled
across portions of north Georgia on Tuesday and Wednesday
, which
will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and
Wednesday as multiple shortwave disturbances traverse the upper-
level flow. Highest PoPs are anticipated across the far northern
tier, with diminishing chances further south
. Southwesterly flow
aloft will remain entrenched over the southeastern CONUS,
contributing to deep moisture over the forecast area. Dewpoint
values will be in the upper 50s and low 60s and precipitable
waters will range from 1.25" to 1.5" as a result. The warm and
moist airmass will allow for enough instability to support
thunderstorms with any precipitation that occurs. However, with
limited diabatic heating and weak forcing overall, the threat for
severe weather appears to be low.

The current radar loop depicts the complex of showers and
thunderstorms moving eastward out of the forecast area as the
shortwave moves away to the east. Low ceilings and areas of fog have
developed behind the exiting precipitation, especially in locations
in northeast Georgia where dense fog is reducing visibilities to
a quarter mile or less. Several rivers have reached flood stage
and the potential remains for additional rivers to reach minor
flood stage with additional rainfall over the short term period.
Furthermore, the Flash Flood Watch across north Georgia has been
been continued through Wednesday morning, as deep atmospheric
moisture will allow for storms to produce locally heavy rainfall
over already saturated areas.

 

Rainfall through Tuesday.

wpc-se-total_precip_inch-9586400.thumb.png.9ce716b039a5b13e4c3a936876044f0c.png

 

Ok... let's move on to more important things. I'm going out on a limb here by saying that you are going to see snow this winter at least once. At least that's what "my" crystal ball is saying. 🙂 

The first ingredient you need for winter weather are cold temperatures. so let's look at the ensembles to see what cold we may get. Remember, these next two images are a blend (the mean) of 20 (GFS) or 51 (Euro) individual runs, so some of those runs are colder and some are warmer than what you see. Right now this is the safe way to look at things, and I'll show you why in a minute. 

GEFS Temp Anomalies
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-t2m_f_anom-1578960000-1578960000-1580342400-100.thumb.gif.40090dc64a2040c48429487baba78fdb.gif

 

Euro EPS Temp Anomalies

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t2m_f_anom-1578960000-1578960000-1580256000-100.thumb.gif.d923ba9b3fdeb812889775c1c66beecd.gif

 

Here's a look at Blairsville and there are a few things I'd like to point out. Notice how the individual ensemble members agree on the temperatures for the near future. You can tell quickly by looking at the colors on the top part of the graph, and notice how well they align vertically. As you go out in time, that vertical alignment changes due to difference in speed of the systems that run sees. Now, look at the lower portion of the graph. Notice how closely the skinny "whisker" bars are vertically, in other words from the top of the skinny bar to the bottom of the skinny bar. That is the difference between the highest and lowest temp (in this case) for all the members at that point in time, and as you go further out in time, that difference becomes greater as the members start to differ on what's going to happen. So you can start to see the advantages of using an ensemble approach as you go out in time. The more agreement between the individual ensemble members means that there is a greater the chance that event will happen. The larger the spread in the whisker bars means that there is more disagreement between all the members. Or the other way around. 🙂 

gfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_tmp-8960000.thumb.png.7f6b03b88f02014ffbad4bd40bf0d425.png

 

Yea yea... 🙂 Enough of that. Here's the GEFS and Euro Mean individual members.

GEFS Mean
1894042203_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-0256000(1).thumb.png.d3b88c9fa553dd09b0faeaea9471d242.png


Euro EPS Mean
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-0256000.thumb.png.7e1843f487df8df6a41f2ec4828fc4f3.png

 

And the individual members.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-0342400.thumb.png.69e85625a9eefbace079ff4596b876b6.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel-1578960000-1578981600-1580342400-150.thumb.gif.5e47c1b0fc3d54a973f1d750b73ef241.gif

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-0256000.thumb.png.625d8cd5985c695ed8f93ee34dbd50dd.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-0256000.thumb.png.0521d1120a5d0d14922a7751187514af.png

 

That's about it for now, just more rain another 8 days. 🙂 Maybe at that point it won't be rain. 🙂

Have a great Tuesday!

forecast-14.png.b146bd3f150ea7c7e6b9fdee5ef9142f.png

Snap346063453.png.a74d85f4435b0323d135c222b44ab949.png

 

 

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2015 is one of the winters that is matching up very nicely right now. In 2015, the CFSv2 had this for Feb

usT2mMonInd2(77).gif.2ba8a7360b52306b2342a7b694c1784d.gif

 

We had this

usT2mMonInd1(163).gif.12529fc339560cae834590b4a1d291ae.gif

Here's what happened.

 

 

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Dark, dreary look out of the upstairs window this morning.

2924.thumb.jpg.7c6a4662224b76124f81f7d1807ee8a5.jpg

 

The back isn't any better. Or worse depending on how you look at it. 🙂

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The 06Z operational run (yes, not the ensemble so take this with a VERY large grain of salt) shows these temps for January 30th

Some of the coldest anomalies (and certainly the largest area) in the Northern Hemisphere would be over the eastern US. 

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t2m_f_anom-0364000.thumb.png.efeef93f456955bc77b3161cffdcbcc7.png

 

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f_anom-0364000.thumb.png.502bfdd34cb9c702eb56f62cf5ae3af9.png

 

Those anomalies equate to these temperatures. These are 1AM temps so morning lows would be even colder. gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-0364000.thumb.png.255864cb7b6ab97d2e3168ee5154a68b.png

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Is it me or have the short range high res models done pretty terrible showing the rain and storms the last couple of days

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It sure seems that the trick will be getting the moisture to coincide with the cold.  Not an easy thing to do down here!

I just remember Kirk Mellish saying that Miller A setups seem to give us our best chances for significant snow.  Isn't that when big moisture comes up from the Gulf?  If we had had the cold to go along with it, would that last big storm system we had be classified as a Miller A?  Just wondering...

 

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1 minute ago, Bagsmom said:

It sure seems that the trick will be getting the moisture to coincide with the cold.  Not an easy thing to do down here!

I just remember Kirk Mellish saying that Miller A setups seem to give us our best chances for significant snow.  Isn't that when big moisture comes up from the Gulf?  If we had had the cold to go along with it, would that last big storm system we had be classified as a Miller A?  Just wondering...

 

The Saturday system was a low pressure that tracked up through the midwest and eventually over to the Northeast, then there was a trailing cold front that was accompanied by severe weather. A Miller A will have the low pressure track more along the northern gulf and throw moisture up into the cold air if it was here.

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There are definitely going to be opportunities for possible winter storms. The cold and the moisture are going to coincide over the eastern US, the trick is getting it to do so here. Right now suppression is stopping us from really seeing it on the models. Hopefully as time goes on these modeled 1045 HP's that are crushing our storms actually turn into like 1038-1040. Otherwise the gulf coast beaches will be the ones seeing the snow lol

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My grass needs cut.  It is going to be a shock to the buggers underneath all those leaves, new growth when old man winter strikes.  The bugger coroner is going to be busy......    I still have not wrapped my outside faucet.  I hope i can locate my trusty duct tape and some old pool noodles...haha...  They make good insulators....  

Last year we spoke of the modoki el nino, and the southern miller A's.  That never materialized.  Is what we are seeing similar?

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Just trend watching but I have noticed on the 12z EURO that the low pressure next Tuesdayish has started to inch its way closer to us. Trend to watch!

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25 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Just trend watching but I have noticed on the 12z EURO that the low pressure next Tuesdayish has started to inch its way closer to us. Trend to watch!

Yeah things are far from over with that system. If I was on the SE Coastal plain I'd be more excited than I am for here right now with such suppressive looks.

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Bamwx, Judah Cohen, and others don’t seem to be as bullish on long term pattern flip as we get into February! This trend has been amazingly persistent for almost 2 seasons now! If I was a betting man my money would go on warmer solutions! However I do think March is going to be colder than normal based on similar very warm winter seasons of the past! I will enjoy whatever last half of January brings as anything is better than this wet soggy blowtorch!!!

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10 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Bamwx, Judah Cohen, and others don’t seem to be as bullish on long term pattern flip as we get into February! This trend has been amazingly persistent for almost 2 seasons now! If I was a betting man my money would go on warmer solutions! However I do think March is going to be colder than normal based on similar very warm winter seasons of the past! I will enjoy whatever last half of January brings as anything is better than this wet soggy blowtorch!!!

Who cares what they think? Honestly who cares 

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3 minutes ago, Rusty said:

Bamwx, Judah Cohen, and others don’t seem to be as bullish on long term pattern flip as we get into February! This trend has been amazingly persistent for almost 2 seasons now! If I was a betting man my money would go on warmer solutions! However I do think March is going to be colder than normal based on similar very warm winter seasons of the past! I will enjoy whatever last half of January brings as anything is better than this wet soggy blowtorch!!!

Judah almost never is lol. But I've said from the beginning a 6 week sustained stretch of arctic cold is rather unlikely to ever happen in the south no matter what. I think it will more likely be a series of week long cold shots with brief warm-ups in between as things reload. I'm confident that we don't see anymore torches like we've been in. More like flips between very cold and seasonably mild. The difference between this year and previous years is that our cold source is in very close proximity over mainland Canada and not towards the arctic. This will allow us to all along take chunks out of it sending them our way. 

I'm less worried about sustaining cold over very long periods than I am about getting the timing right when we are in our cold shots. Each cold shot will probably bring with it 1-3 chances at winter weather. Right now the Atlantic is a major problem. The flow is so fast off the coast, without perfect timing of energy pieces, every storm is likely to be a late bloomer. 

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