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NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, January 16

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Good morning! 

The rain will finally be ending if it hasn't already, and cooler temperatures start to filter in to north Georgia today. Our flow change from the SW to W and eventually NW as the cold air sags south over the course of the day. You can see from this first map that there is some very cold air across the north central US right now, and over the course of the next 7-10 days, that will slowly make its way south, moderating as it does. A nice little snowstorm is just exiting the New England states and they are going to have several major storms through the end of the month. My wife and I were talking this morning and decided that next January, we are going back to Maine for a couple of weeks. 🙂 

 

This is the same image, but instead of temperatures it shows dewpoints. You can see the lower dewpoints now crossing into Georgia. That's some DRY air to our north and west!

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As you have gathered by now, winter is knocking on our doorstep. I know the next question is "So when is it going to snow... in my backyard?" 

Let's look at the GFS and see how it thinks things will progress. This is not a forecast and it will change a 40-50 times between now and when these events are suppose to happen, so think of this ONE ensemble member out of 20 or 50. You've seen those maps so you know what I'm talking about. Some of those can be good and some of those can be bad. That being said...

At the start, you can see the NE storm exiting and a new one forming over the central US. That turns into a pretty big storm for NE. The cold comes in and leaves us clear until next Wednesday when a new storms forms and starts its journey across the US. Lots of rain for us in that one right now. But on Monday the 27th, a new storm forms and takes a Gulf coast track just like we like to see, and that may hold promise for a good snowfall here. It's way to early to even know if it is going to happen,  but the ingredients are on the table. It's all about timing and that track, much like threading a needle.  

gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1579154400-1579176000-1580493600-150.thumb.gif.f051efe9b670b5a894fd6f93c8af2302.gif

 

I am very upbeat about the upcoming pattern. Like @KingOfTheMountains said yesterday, this will be a ride full of ups and downs and I have to say that every year so people understand how this works. If you watch the weather models in the winter, you apparently like to suffer. 🙂 Model watching in the winter can be an exhausting ride that is full of ups and downs. You know how there are some roller coasters that you don't like to ride? Some of these in the winter can be just like that, and then other times you want to get back on and do it again. 🙂 So just know, systems can and will come and go, and what looks promising may fade away. On the other hand, sometimes miracles to happen and the timing is perfect, and it's those times that make it all worthwhile. It's kinda like riding the "Polar Express". 🙂

I hope everyone has a great Thursday!

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We had a big thunderstorm here in the night.  The moisture is certainly around this winter.  

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36 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

We had a big thunderstorm here in the night.  The moisture is certainly around this winter.  

Came through here around 3 AM, pretty good rain! 

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Getting ready for a big snowstorm! Too bad it's not here!

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1333Z THU JAN 16 2020

CWD DECLARED...
A Critical Weather Day (CWD) will be declared at 0000Z Fri Jan 17
2020 and extend through 1200Z Sun Jan 19 2020
. The following NWS
regions are impacted by this CWD...Central. NCEP/NWSTG and the
NCF are also participating in this CWD to ensure a reliable flow
of weather data. All scheduled software/hardware/network changes
for the impacted offices will be postponed until the CWD has
ended. Any emergency changes will be evaluated and approved by
regional management officials. NWS offices should contact their
regional offices for further questions about this CWD.

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As the big cold comes in, are we expected to have high winds?  I was thinking about all the old trees in my neighborhood and the very wet soil...

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19 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

As the big cold comes in, are we expected to have high winds?  I was thinking about all the old trees in my neighborhood and the very wet soil...

Today will be breezy

Quote

Northwesterly low-level winds behind the cold front will be breezy during the day
today, with sustained winds of 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
 

 

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29th is looking promising. With that low, hopefully, we will get something.

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Flying to Chicago this morning till 25th ! Hope to see a bunch of snow.

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I understand the advice not to watch the models. Now I ask you what do I as a normal individual- not a meteorologist - watch?

The individuals I look to get their forecasts from models. My crap app as it is called does the same. That is why it shows snow one moment and 20 degrees and next time I look rain and 40. 
 

I am frustrated as I have neither the knowledge or money to get the deep study others can use to say better or more than what I can see with the models

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3 minutes ago, RickyD said:

I understand the advice not to watch the models. Now I ask you what do I as a normal individual- not a meteorologist - watch?

The individuals I look to get their forecasts from models. My crap app as it is called does the same. That is why it shows snow one moment and 20 degrees and next time I look rain and 40. 
 

I am frustrated as I have neither the knowledge or money to get the deep study others can use to say better or more than what I can see with the models

And even then, I was reading on Amwx and those who do have the degrees say the cold that has been promised will not be as advertised, but short lived and the pacific will win out again and the warmth sweeps in about 3 days ?  So who do you believe?  They are looking at the pna nao and such

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I'm not saying don't watch the models, what I'm saying is that if you do, expect to see those wild swings that you are seeing. Those are part of the ups and downs on the winter roller coaster. And understand that most of those apps are showing the GFS operational output because the GFS data is free. 

As far as the folks on AmWx go... I use to frequent that forum for years, but I got away from it when the moderators took all the fun out of it and haven't been back since. Everyone has their opinion. If anyone is expecting wall to wall cold for 6 weeks, they don't understand winter in the south. We will have warm ups, but I don't see any long lasting warmth and a greater chance for below normal temperatures.  

Two week teleconnections are not known for good verification scores, but here's the GFS ensemble. Each one of these indices are showing good signs for winter weather potential, but even so, that doesn't guarantee snow. 

Here you see the EPO mean dropping in the negative range (GOOD). Keep in mind the "control" run is the run that all the individual ensemble members are using when the run initializes.  

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-epo-box-9154400.thumb.png.63388711650df0de7e9f897106b7df5e.png

 

The AO heads negative (GOOD)

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ao-box-9154400.thumb.png.71116e44d75056cb48d72765de85202d.png

 

NAO neutral to negative (GOOD)

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nao-box-9154400.thumb.png.a89c2dde7bbebf23b8e172c4165f94c7.png

 

PNA heading positive (GOOD)

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-pna-box-9154400.thumb.png.a773e6b89a2905f1400a06de0b05869e.png

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Below normal? Or back to normal.  My trees are all budding here it has been so far above and like I said I could cut my grass.  
40-50 as highs and 25-30 as lows is normal.  So enemy you speak below normal I think of near freezing for highs for n ga and teens to single digits for lows

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4 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Below normal? Or back to normal.  My trees are all budding here it has been so far above and like I said I could cut my grass.  
40-50 as highs and 25-30 as lows is normal.  So enemy you speak below normal I think of near freezing for highs for n ga and teens to single digits for lows

Here are the normal temps for January 15, Highs/Lows

t2max_georgia_JAN15.thumb.png.c49b3ac445205f16848a6e0d064dc36b.pngt2min_georgia_JAN15.thumb.png.1b7eafc4a885165163ba610d8d96a3be.png

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Numerically yes sir, but those avgs were garnered  from above and below temps.  The temps I listed are what is normal winter temps for n ga since I had lived there. It will be nice to leave the 80s behind again regardless down here. Plum funny feeling
 

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

And even then, I was reading on Amwx and those who do have the degrees say the cold that has been promised will not be as advertised, but short lived and the pacific will win out again and the warmth sweeps in about 3 days ?  So who do you believe?  They are looking at the pna nao and such

Honestly, anyone on Amwx that's posting that is just reacting emotionally to the relaxation period between the cold shots. No, it wasn't modeled initially because the nature of ensembles is to smooth out details in the longer range. And a 24-48 hour warmup, primarily driven by the warm flow ahead of a cutting storm, is a fine detail. Frankly given experience, it's something they all should have seen coming regardless. We don't get 6 weeks of wall to wall arctic cold down here, it just isn't possible.

Until either major ensemble starts to suggest that the 2nd cold shot isn't coming, then they are causing a panic for no reason. The cold isn't record breaking, but double digits below normal at peak is still nothing to scoff at here in the SE. 

As for your earlier question, like Steve said there is nothing wrong with watching models. It's more about how you frame your mindset while watching them, so that you don't get thrown around like a ragdoll as the pendulum swings wildly between runs. Just view each model run as one potential solution that as you go out further and further in time has lower odds of being the correct one. 

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18 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Honestly, anyone on Amwx that's posting that is just reacting emotionally to the relaxation period between the cold shots. No, it wasn't modeled initially because the nature of ensembles is to smooth out details in the longer range. And a 24-48 hour warmup, primarily driven by the warm flow ahead of a cutting storm, is a fine detail. Frankly given experience, it's something they all should have seen coming regardless. We don't get 6 weeks of wall to wall arctic cold down here, it just isn't possible.

Until either major ensemble starts to suggest that the 2nd cold shot isn't coming, then they are causing a panic for no reason. The cold isn't record breaking, but double digits below normal at peak is still nothing to scoff at here in the SE. 

As for your earlier question, like Steve said there is nothing wrong with watching models. It's more about how you frame your mindset while watching them, so that you don't get thrown around like a ragdoll as the pendulum swings wildly between runs. Just view each model run as one potential solution that as you go out further and further in time has lower odds of being the correct one. 

You think amwx is bad? Go over to southernwx. It’s even worse 

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The latest Euro is suggesting a huge ridge again .  I tried to post it and couldn’t.   It went from n Canada to the gulf

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1 hour ago, RickyD said:

The latest Euro is suggesting a huge ridge again .  I tried to post it and couldn’t.   It went from n Canada to the gulf

That's our warmup. We'll get past it and cool down again. How much or for how long remains to be seen. Anybody pretending to know it will get very warm long term is just as ridiculous as anyone pretending it will definitely get cold long term. We generally know 3 things right now: 1. Decently strong brief cold shot, 2. Modest brief warmup(potentially a wedge to negate the effects for part of it), 3. A second cold shot of unknown strength or duration. 

Now we like to look at various indices, climate models, etc. and take guesses beyond that but that's all they are is guesses. My hope is for normal to slightly below normal over an extended period. I don't want arctic cold, because it most often screws us out of snow. Normal temps with a good track will give the Mtns snow, slightly below and the rest of N GA can get in on the fun. 

Edit: I should note that the sequence I noted starts the 19th into the 20th. We actually get our first big change tonight into tomorrow with a step down cool shot. 

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1 hour ago, LoveSnow said:

You think amwx is bad? Go over to southernwx. It’s even worse 

Use to go there too. 🙂 I think I was one of the first 20 or so to sign up. 

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17 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

That's our warmup. We'll get past it and cool down again. How much or for how long remains to be seen. Anybody pretending to know it will get very warm long term is just as ridiculous as anyone pretending it will definitely get cold long term. We generally know 3 things right now: 1. Decently strong brief cold shot, 2. Modest brief warmup(potentially a wedge to negate the effects for part of it), 3. A second cold shot of unknown strength or duration. 

Now we like to look at various indices, climate models, etc. and take guesses beyond that but that's all they are is guesses. My hope is for normal to slightly below normal over an extended period. I don't want arctic cold, because it most often screws us out of snow. Normal temps with a good track will give the Mtns snow, slightly below and the rest of N GA can get in on the fun. 

The problem and I know ( it is just me desiring for snow and winter) is that the gfs was advertising major cold and now it has in the latter models said nope. Cold?  Yep but nothing like I first thought.... and it is a continuation of the warmth and wet.  I don’t believe in global warming but I do have to accept we are in a very warm pattern and snow events are a no no.  It is proving over and over to be so.  The warm ridge in the East remains.  The hope?   It is finally very cold again in Alaska and Canada.  Surely some will skip down our way

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20 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Use to go there too. 🙂 I think I was one of the first 20 or so to sign up. 

Be glad you aren’t there now

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Sounds like you're on the downhill part of the roller coaster. 🙂 I guess I've done this for too long, I don't let the disappointments get to me much anymore. I know that our chances here in Georgia are slim no matter what, so I try not to let myself get too excited when something shows up on the horizon. 

When watching weather models know that things like temps and precip will generally moderate before the event happens (but not always). 

12 minutes ago, RickyD said:

The problem and I know ( it is just me desiring for snow and winter) is that the gfs was advertising major cold and now it has in the latter models said nope. Cold?  Yep but nothing like I first thought.... and it is a continuation of the warmth and wet.  I don’t believe in global warming but I do have to accept we are in a very warm pattern and snow events are a no no.  It is proving over and over to be so.  The warm ridge in the East remains.  The hope?   It is finally very cold again in Alaska and Canada.  Surely some will skip down our way

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7 minutes ago, RickyD said:

The problem and I know ( it is just me desiring for snow and winter) is that the gfs was advertising major cold and now it has in the latter models said nope. Cold?  Yep but nothing like I first thought.... and it is a continuation of the warmth and wet.  I don’t believe in global warming but I do have to accept we are in a very warm pattern and snow events are a no no.  It is proving over and over to be so.  The warm ridge in the East remains.  The hope?   It is finally very cold again in Alaska and Canada.  Surely some will skip down our way

 The GFS is still forecasting anywhere from 10 to 20 below normal region wide early next week. That is a strong cold shot, and basically the strength that has been advertised from the beginning, outside of maybe a handful of over aggressive runs. The change has been the duration. The ensembles, because of their nature, smoothed out the warmup. So initially we thought it stayed below normal through the reload. Now we know otherwise.

The pattern we've been in the past two weeks does not remain. It is dying its long awaited death as we type this. A brief warmup within a cooler pattern does not a warm pattern make. 

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