Jump to content
  • Forum Image
NorthGeorgiaWX

Thursday, January 16

Recommended Posts

I grew up here, so understand the ups and downs. But also know that some of our best snows were surprises! So here’s to southern surprises and good luck! 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

 The GFS is still forecasting anywhere from 10 to 20 below normal region wide early next week. That is a strong cold shot, and basically the strength that has been advertised from the beginning, outside of maybe a handful of over aggressive runs. The change has been the duration. The ensembles, because of their nature, smoothed out the warmup. So initially we thought it stayed below normal through the reload. Now we know otherwise.

The pattern we've been in the past two weeks does not remain. It is dying its long awaited death as we type this. A brief warmup within a cooler pattern does not a warm pattern make. 

Color me a pessimist or whatever, but the trend is undeniable this winter season and for that matter the last 2-3 winter seasons, especially last year! The weather pattern is almost identical! Warmer than normal summer, very hot September early October, Cold November, warm DJF and Cold March etc. etc. etc. same pattern different year! Very strong Westward displacement of Bermuda Ridge!!! Looking at analogs of past top 5 or even top 5 warmest winters over the Southeast reeks of the pattern we are in and have been in and most have not magically flipped to cold in February! Most have been slightly cooler in February relative to average than January, some flipped to absolute blowtorch in February! Most turned colder than normal in March! Most in fact had colder than normal in November and March but blowtorch DJF! Nothing looks that great right now! EPO, WPO, AO, NAO, MJO all flip flopping but biased back to warm phase which continues to verify! Very few sustained cold periods when TPV is wrapped as tight as stretching a gnats ass over a 50 gallon drum!!! Weather runs in cycles and we are definitely in a warm cycle featuring a Strong Southeast Ridge!!! Check out our warmest winter seasons on record and compare to current pattern! 1879/80, 1889/90, 1931/32, 1926/27, 1948/49, 1949/50, 1936/37, 1973/74, 2016/17, 2011/12!!! 10 heavy hitters right there for blowtorch winter seasons!!! Persistence and trends are great forecasting tools!!! I hope you guys are right and I love your forecasting and enthusiasm but if I am a betting man I am betting a blowtorch until March!!! Sorry just my opinion! Hope I am wrong!!! I truly believe when it is all said and done this winter season is a top 5 warmest on record for most weather sites in  Georgia!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rusty said:

Color me a pessimist or whatever, but the trend is undeniable this winter season and for that matter the last 2-3 winter seasons, especially last year! The weather pattern is almost identical! Warmer than normal summer, very hot September early October, Cold November, warm DJF and Cold March etc. etc. etc. same pattern different year! Very strong Westward displacement of Bermuda Ridge!!! Looking at analogs of past top 5 or even top 5 warmest winters over the Southeast reeks of the pattern we are in and have been in and most have not magically flipped to cold in February! Most have been slightly cooler in February relative to average than January, some flipped to absolute blowtorch in February! Most turned colder than normal in March! Most in fact had colder than normal in November and March but blowtorch DJF! Nothing looks that great right now! EPO, WPO, AO, NAO, MJO all flip flopping but biased back to warm phase which continues to verify! Very few sustained cold periods when TPV is wrapped as tight as stretching a gnats ass over a 50 gallon drum!!! Weather runs in cycles and we are definitely in a warm cycle featuring a Strong Southeast Ridge!!! Check out our warmest winter seasons on record and compare to current pattern! 1879/80, 1889/90, 1931/32, 1926/27, 1948/49, 1949/50, 1936/37, 1973/74, 2016/17, 2011/12!!! 10 heavy hitters right there for blowtorch winter seasons!!! Persistence and trends are great forecasting tools!!! I hope you guys are right and I love your forecasting and enthusiasm but if I am a betting man I am betting a blowtorch until March!!! Sorry just my opinion! Hope I am wrong!!! I truly believe when it is all said and done this winter season is a top 5 warmest on record for most weather sites in  Georgia!

In most ways I agree with you. I'm not expecting things to magically turn super cold in February. I expect a near average to possibly slightly below average month. But ultimately, we don't know yet what February holds. Which has mainly been the point that I've tried to drive home today. Focus on what we've got right in front of us right now instead of freaking out over what may or may not happen in the long range. Tonight we take a step down to cool, Sunday into Monday we turn briefly cold for a few days, late next week heights rise and we warm, followed by some degree of cool/cold into the last week of the month. I'm not worrying myself over what happens beyond that right now.

Based on Northern hemisphere 500 mbar heights we are moving into probably our 4th sub-pattern of the winter. 1st was the November cold that lasted into the 1st week or so of December. Then we've had back to back warm sub-patterns here. (Same sensible result here but discreetly different at H5 as far as N hemisphere alignment goes). Now comes our 4th sub pattern where the H5 pattern that has dominated for the past month plus is clearly breaking down. We may see a 5th sub-pattern manifest as early as a week and a half to 2 weeks from now. 

Like I said earlier today, if February can be just around average for any length of time, I like my chances at snow here in the mountains. Because our climatology says that normal temps with a good track and HP will absolutely produce here in Jan/Feb. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

In most ways I agree with you. I'm not expecting things to magically turn super cold in February. I expect a near average to possibly slightly below average month. But ultimately, we don't know yet what February holds. Which has mainly been the point that I've tried to drive home today. Focus on what we've got right in front of us right now instead of freaking out over what may or may not happen in the long range. Tonight we take a step down to cool, Sunday into Monday we turn briefly cold for a few days, late next week heights rise and we warm, followed by some degree of cool/cold into the last week of the month. I'm not worrying myself over what happens beyond that right now.

Based on Northern hemisphere 500 mbar heights we are moving into probably our 4th sub-pattern of the winter. 1st was the November cold that lasted into the 1st week or so of December. Then we've had back to back warm sub-patterns here. (Same sensible result here but discreetly different at H5 as far as N hemisphere alignment goes). Now comes our 4th sub pattern where the H5 pattern that has dominated for the past month plus is clearly breaking down. We may see a 5th sub-pattern manifest as early as a week and a half to 2 weeks from now. 

Like I said earlier today, if February can be just around average for any length of time, I like my chances at snow here in the mountains. Because our climatology says that normal temps with a good track and HP will absolutely produce here in Jan/Feb. 

Agree 100%

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...